
This is the eighteenth poll of the critical battleground state of Ohio (link to US census demographic data) that I have covered. Before we dig a little deeper, a word of caution about this poll — the Columbus Dispatch’s mail-in response methodology in conducting polling has historically made the poll one of the least reliable polls in Ohio. Nonetheless, this new from the Columbus Disptach is in-line with the general trend line of recent polling in the Buckeye State though I’ll note that a Mason-Dixon poll also out today for Ohio has Senator McCain up two points (I don’t subscribe to Mason-Dixon Polling & Research and thus the poll is published in a newspaper I can’t get at any additional underlying data).
The Columbus Dispatch poll, however, does seem to represent a tightening of the race in Ohio. Earlier this week, Quinnipiac’s poll gave Senator Obama a nine point edge. In this new poll, Obama leads by six points, 52% to 46%. Some highlights:
• Obama leads fourteen points with early voters and he leads by two points with voters who intend to vote on Election Day.
• Among voters who were already registered, Obama leads by four points. Among voters who registered for the first time this year, Obama leads by a whopping 46 points! First time voters make up 10% of the Ohio electorate.
• Although the poll shows 22% of Hillary Clinton primary voters voting for McCain, the poll shows that Democratic voters are supporting Obama at the same rate as Republicans supporting McCain. In Ohio, there does seem to be a PUMA factor but Obama overcomes it with a stronger than average support among Republicans and Independents. Obama leads by ten points with Independents.
• Obama leads with all education groups except college graduates where McCain has four point advantage. McCain also has slight leads with voters 45-64 with Obama dominating younger voters and with small leads or tied with McCain with other older voter demographics.
• Obama dominates throughout northern Ohio around Cleveland and in central Ohio in Columbus-Dayton-Akron corridor, but is not doing well in southeastern Ohio where McCain is doing as well there as he’s doing in the traditionally GOP territory of southwestern Ohio around Cincinnati.
• The leader in the last Columbus Dispatch poll has won Ohio in every election since William McKinley though in 2004, the Columbus Dispatch poll couldn’t pick a winner. It called the race a dead heat which was accurate. Bush would win Ohio by just 2.4%.
After an unprecedented campaign that seemed to break a record for breaking records, Barack Obama stands on the threshold of history — if his poll numbers hold up.
The final Dispatch Poll shows the Illinois Democrat with a 6-point lead in Ohio, virtually identical to the 7-point advantage he held a month ago. The survey is one of many in key states across America that indicate Obama is headed toward a win Tuesday that might not be close, although Republican John McCain is furiously trying to mount one more comeback and prove the pollsters wrong.
Ohioans also appear poised to elect Democrat Richard Cordray as attorney general, defeat yet another attempt to bring casino gambling to the state, and uphold tighter regulations on payday lending.
The winner of the last Dispatch Poll before a presidential election has carried the state every time in modern Ohio history, although the final survey was a dead heat four years ago between Sen. John Kerry and President Bush, who won by 2.1 percentage points.
If Obama’s lead of 52 percent to 46 percent in the new poll holds, he would become the first Democrat to win more than 50 percent of the Ohio vote since Lyndon B. Johnson did in 1964.
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