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Georgia Senate Race Ads

Jim Martin, Democrat

Senator Saxby Chambliss, Incumbent Republican

National Republican Trust PAC on Behalf of Saxby Chambliss

It would be so nice to win this seat back. I don’t normally call anyone names but with Saxby Chambliss, I will say this, somewhere there is a pond missing its scum. The race is close but the latest Politico/Insider Advantage points to a three point lead for the Republican incumbent. Here’s the latest from the Atlanta Journal-Constitution:

It’s just one week until Georgia voters go to the polls to decide a U.S. Senate runoff that could tilt the balance of power in the Washington. But it’s far from certain if most voters will even bother returning for one more shot of partisan politics.

The nationally watched Dec. 2 Senate runoff between incumbent Republican U.S. Sen. Saxby Chambliss and Democrat Jim Martin takes place the Tuesday after Thanksgiving, smack dab in the middle of the holiday season.

Both campaigns on Monday were predicting a healthy turnout for their side. But both are keenly aware that they are heading into the final week of a bitter campaign with voters focused on family, food and football.

“We’re just going to keep focused on our message,” Martin said Monday.

Chambliss’ camp, meanwhile, was maintaining its strategy of bringing GOP heavyweights to the state to stump for Chambliss. Today, former New York City Mayor Rudolph Giuliani campaigns for Chambliss, just two days after former Vice President Al Gore came to Atlanta for Martin.

The state Senate race has attracted a long line of political big shots as Democrats push for a 60-vote, filibuster-proof “super majority” in the upper chamber and Republicans pull out all stops to hold Chambliss’ seat.

Democrats now have 58 seats —- only races in Minnesota and Georgia have to be decided.

The national media has focused on the race, but Chambliss and Martin worry that Georgia voters could get distracted by the holidays. Georgians can expect a barrage of televised political attack ads to interrupt their football games in coming days. And they can expect plenty of telephone calls urging them to vote.

Chambliss and Martin are trying to keep voters focused on a race that they know they will win or lose based on turnout, which historically tends to be abysmally low for runoffs.

The last high-profile U.S. Senate runoff in Georgia was in 1992, between incumbent Democratic U.S. Sen. Wyche Fowler and Republican challenger Paul Coverdell. Only about half the voters (55 percent) who cast ballots in the general election that year came back to the polls for the runoff. And that runoff vote took place before the Thanksgiving holiday.

“It will probably be harder to get people back this time,” said University of Georgia political scientist Charles Bullock, author of a book about runoffs.

Bullock said the Thanksgiving holiday will play a role this year, but runoff turnout also could be affected by the fact that 500,000 new voters cast ballots in the Nov. 4 general. First-time voters, he said, are less likely to return for a runoff.

There is also the problem of voter fatigue. Some Georgians will have voted four times by the time the runoff concludes. Democrats already have voted in the Democratic primary, the Democratic U.S. Senate runoff and the Nov. 4 general election.

Both camps continued to step up the rhetoric on Monday. Martin accepted the endorsement of the Veterans & Military Families for Progress, which has about 500 members nationwide but only about a half-dozen in Georgia. Martin took the occasion to blast Chambliss for what he called a “four-day junket to Boca Raton, Florida,” in the days leading up to a key vote in the war in Iraq.

“I would not have done that,” Martin said. “I would have been in Washington.”

Chambliss’ campaign called Martin’s claims “just another attempt to mislead the people of Georgia.”

“Veterans across Georgia and across the country have endorsed Senator Chambliss’ re-election, including two of the largest veterans groups —- Veterans of Foreign Wars and Vets for Freedom,” said Chambliss spokeswoman Michelle Grasso.

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Four North Carolina Polls — It’s Closer than a UNC-Duke Title Game

The latest couple of polls for North Carolina (link is to US Census demographic data) have pointed to a dead heat. Today’s polls are no different, three show a narrow one point lead for Senator McCain and one gives Senator Obama a one point edge.

Four North Carolina Polls

Poll
McCain
Obama
Public Policy Polling
49%
50%
Rasmussen
50%
49%
Survey USA
49%
48%
Reuters/Zogby
49%
48%
Source: PPP, Ramussen Reports, SUSA, Reuters/Zogby

I am just going to cover the Rasmussen Reports, the PPP and the Survey USA and compare their internals and underlying trends. Let’s start with the Rasmussen Reports poll:

John McCain holds the narrowest of leads in North Carolina in the final Fox News/Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the state before Election Day.

McCain leads Barack Obama by a statistically insignificant one-point in North Carolina, 50% to 49%. One percent (1%) are undecided. This is only the fourth time McCain has hit the 50% mark all year.

Four days ago, McCain was down by two points. A week ago, he was ahead by just one. On October 12, it was a tie. It’s been that kind of race in North Carolina where McCain had led for months until Wall Street’s high-profile woes in mid-September began hurting the Republican’s numbers nationwide.

Five percent (5%) of North Carolina voters say they still may change their minds before voting tomorrow. Right now that group includes five percent (5%) of McCain voters and four percent (4%) of Obama voters.

Obama has a 57% to 43% lead among those who have already voted.

Fifteen percent (15%) of North Carolina Democrats are supporting McCain, while just seven percent (7%) of Republicans are backing Obama. The Republican also has taken a nine-point lead among unaffiliated voters after trailing among that group last week.

(more…)

New McCain Ad — I Want to Thank

One issue that Senator McCain owned early on during this race was energy. To an extent, the McCain campaign had the rug pulled from under it in a number of ways. The success of the surge pushed Iraq to back burner. The collapse of Lehman Brothers and the global financial crisis played to Senator Obama’s advantage. And with the contraction of the economy, commodity prices, including the price of oil, fell. Energy and gas prices a hot topic during the summer with oil prices at over $140 a barrel became less of imperative when oil slipped to $70 a barrel. Energy independence no doubt remains a critical issue and the McCain campaign failed to push the issue.

This ad is 30 second spot.

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New McCain Ad — Jeb

The McCain campaign released this ad yesterday featuring former Florida Governor Jeb Bush. The ad is a 30 spot and running in Florida. The ad is similar to one featuring current Florida Governor Charlie Crist.

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New Ad from Pennsylvania GOP Features the Reverend Jeremiah Wright

Note: If the above doesn’t work, then try this link: Pennsylvania GOP.

The Pennsylvania Republican Party released a new TV ad featuring Reverend Jeremiah Wright, Senator Obama’s pastor of 20 years at the Trinity United Church of Christ in Chicago. This marks the first time Obama’s relationship with his former preacher has been the subject of any GOP ad in Pennsylvania during the general election season. A number of 527 groups have run ads featuring some of the more controversial statements by the Reverend Wright in other states including Michigan, Ohio, Indiana and Virginia. It’s not clear that these ads have had much of an effect on the race. This new ad is a 30 second spot and running across the Keystone State.

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New NRSC Ad — Fright Night

The Republican National Committee has released this ad on behalf of several GOP candidates in the fight of their lives to retain their Senate seats. Clever but I hope every last Republican Senatorial candidate goes down to defeat. I remember 1980 and watching Frank Church’s concession speech and George McGovern’s concession speech. Nothing more I enjoy more than hearing Libby Dole’s retirement speech followed by Ted Stevens’ retirement speech and then Mitch McConnell’s retirement speech.

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Shame on You Libby Dole

Shame on you Libby Dole, shame on you. I’ll be setting aside a bottle of Veuve Clicquot Ponsardin for Tuesday just to pop when you lose your bid for re-election. This atheist can’t wait to send your delusional self packing from the United States Senate. Whatever Ms. Hagan’s beliefs, you have no right injecting such a smear into our political discourse. For a growing number of Americans, freedom of religion means freedom from religion.

I am delighted to report that Kay Hagan leads Elizabeth Dole by six points in the race for the US Senate Seat from North Carolina. Now I think I’ll send Ms. Hagan a contribution.

From The Hill:

Democratic challenger Kay Hagan has filed a defamation lawsuit against Sen. Elizabeth Dole (R-N.C.) for questioning Hagan’s faith in what is shaping up as the nastiest campaign of this cycle.

Hagan announced the lawsuit after Dole refused to remove the ad, which suggests Hagan is an atheist and has become the subject of tough criticism from several newspaper editorials in North Carolina. Several polls show Dole trailing Hagan, a state senator.

Hagan also released a new television advertisement that began airing Thursday to respond to Dole’s latest attack ad linking Hagan with an atheist group.

In the ad, Hagan, a Presbyterian who taught Sunday school, called Dole’s ad “offensive” and closed with a dig that suggests Dole broke one of the Ten Commandments.

“Elizabeth Dole’s attacks on my Christian faith are offensive,” Hagan says, adding her campaign is about jobs and the economy instead of “bearing false witness against fellow Christians.”

The Ninth Commandment prohibits bearing false witness against a neighbor.

Well Kay Hagan, you’re in good company, Thomas Jefferson too was accused of being an atheist.

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Two New McCain Ads

A new 30 second spot featuring Florida’s popular (and always tanned) Governor Charlie Crist running now in the Sunshine State.

A 60 second spot. Not worth spit in the ocean.

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New RNC Ad — Slippery Slope

The Republican National Committee today released this Internet-only ad attacking the Obama-Biden ticket over their tax plans. The ad is a 75 second spot.

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Let Freedom Ring Releases New Ads

Puzzle

Thank You #1 — 60 Second Spot

Thank You #2 — 60 Second Spot

Thank You #3 — 30 Second Spot

Thank You Military — 60 Second Spot

Thank You Military — 30 Second Spot

The conservative 527 group, Let Freedom Ring has launched a last minute $5 million ad campaign on behalf of Senator McCain. Eight ads were released but in reality there are really only three ads. The others are variation on a theme varying in the length of the spot or by actors. One ad (”puzzle”) is an attack ad on Senator Obama while the other two thank Senator McCain for his judgment and service.

For more background on Let Freedom Ring, please visit Source Watch.

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