Polls in Florida (link to US Census demographic data) continue to show a tight, competitive race that fluctuates back and forth. Earlier this week, two polls gave Senator Obama narrow leads of four and five points. Last week, a SUSA poll gave Senator McCain a two point lead, 49% to 47%. Another poll from Rasmussen Reports gave McCain a point lead, 49% to 48%. A Public Policy Polling poll out late last week gave Senator Obama a one point lead, 48% to 47% while a Mason-Dixon poll gave Senator McCain a one point edge, 46% to 45%. Last Thursday, a poll from Quninnipiac pointed a narrow two point lead for Senator Obama, 47% to 45%. Today, there are five polls out for the Sunshine State with four pointing to narrow Obama leads and one giving McCain the edge. All margins are within the margin of error. In Florida, it’s a dead heat.

Five Florida Polls

I am just going to break out the overviews from Rasmussen Reports and Quinnipiac but I’ll comment on some trends from the internals from four of the five polls thereafter. First the executive summary from Rasmussen Reports:

Florida’s neck-and-neck down to the wire in the last Fox News/Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of voters in the state prior to Election Day.

John McCain leads Barack Obama by a statistically insignificant single percentage point, 50% to 49%. One percent of voters are still undecided.

In the three previous weeks, the lead has changed each time. Just one week ago, Obama was ahead by four points. The week before that it was McCain ahead by one. But this is the first time McCain has made it into the 50s since the middle of September.

Fifty-five percent (55%) of those who have already voted cast their ballots for Obama, 44% for McCain. Nationwide, Rasmussen Reports polling suggests as many as 37% of voters may cast their ballot before tomorrow.

Florida has been carried by the Republican candidates in eight of the last 10 presidential elections, including in 2000 when it took a month to determine that George W. Bush was the winner.

Like the other five battleground states that Fox News/Rasmussen Reports releases final numbers on today – Colorado, Missouri, North Carolina, Ohio and Virginia, Florida went for Bush in 2004. McCain probably needs all six states to win the White House.

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The latest couple of polls for North Carolina (link is to US Census demographic data) have pointed to a dead heat. Today’s polls are no different, three show a narrow one point lead for Senator McCain and one gives Senator Obama a one point edge.

Four North Carolina Polls

I am just going to cover the Rasmussen Reports, the PPP and the Survey USA and compare their internals and underlying trends. Let’s start with the Rasmussen Reports poll:

John McCain holds the narrowest of leads in North Carolina in the final Fox News/Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the state before Election Day.

McCain leads Barack Obama by a statistically insignificant one-point in North Carolina, 50% to 49%. One percent (1%) are undecided. This is only the fourth time McCain has hit the 50% mark all year.

Four days ago, McCain was down by two points. A week ago, he was ahead by just one. On October 12, it was a tie. It’s been that kind of race in North Carolina where McCain had led for months until Wall Street’s high-profile woes in mid-September began hurting the Republican’s numbers nationwide.

Five percent (5%) of North Carolina voters say they still may change their minds before voting tomorrow. Right now that group includes five percent (5%) of McCain voters and four percent (4%) of Obama voters.

Obama has a 57% to 43% lead among those who have already voted.

Fifteen percent (15%) of North Carolina Democrats are supporting McCain, while just seven percent (7%) of Republicans are backing Obama. The Republican also has taken a nine-point lead among unaffiliated voters after trailing among that group last week.

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This is the eighteenth poll of the critical battleground state of Ohio (link to US census demographic data) that I have covered. Before we dig a little deeper, a word of caution about this poll — the Columbus Dispatch’s mail-in response methodology in conducting polling has historically made the poll one of the least reliable polls in Ohio. Nonetheless, this new from the Columbus Disptach is in-line with the general trend line of recent polling in the Buckeye State though I’ll note that a Mason-Dixon poll also out today for Ohio has Senator McCain up two points (I don’t subscribe to Mason-Dixon Polling & Research and thus the poll is published in a newspaper I can’t get at any additional underlying data).

The Columbus Dispatch poll, however, does seem to represent a tightening of the race in Ohio. Earlier this week, Quinnipiac’s poll gave Senator Obama a nine point edge. In this new poll, Obama leads by six points, 52% to 46%. Some highlights:

• Obama leads fourteen points with early voters and he leads by two points with voters who intend to vote on Election Day.

• Among voters who were already registered, Obama leads by four points. Among voters who registered for the first time this year, Obama leads by a whopping 46 points! First time voters make up 10% of the Ohio electorate.

• Although the poll shows 22% of Hillary Clinton primary voters voting for McCain, the poll shows that Democratic voters are supporting Obama at the same rate as Republicans supporting McCain. In Ohio, there does seem to be a PUMA factor but Obama overcomes it with a stronger than average support among Republicans and Independents. Obama leads by ten points with Independents.

• Obama leads with all education groups except college graduates where McCain has four point advantage. McCain also has slight leads with voters 45-64 with Obama dominating younger voters and with small leads or tied with McCain with other older voter demographics.

• Obama dominates throughout northern Ohio around Cleveland and in central Ohio in Columbus-Dayton-Akron corridor, but is not doing well in southeastern Ohio where McCain is doing as well there as he’s doing in the traditionally GOP territory of southwestern Ohio around Cincinnati.

• The leader in the last Columbus Dispatch poll has won Ohio in every election since William McKinley though in 2004, the Columbus Dispatch poll couldn’t pick a winner. It called the race a dead heat which was accurate. Bush would win Ohio by just 2.4%.

After an unprecedented campaign that seemed to break a record for breaking records, Barack Obama stands on the threshold of history — if his poll numbers hold up.

The final Dispatch Poll shows the Illinois Democrat with a 6-point lead in Ohio, virtually identical to the 7-point advantage he held a month ago. The survey is one of many in key states across America that indicate Obama is headed toward a win Tuesday that might not be close, although Republican John McCain is furiously trying to mount one more comeback and prove the pollsters wrong.

Ohioans also appear poised to elect Democrat Richard Cordray as attorney general, defeat yet another attempt to bring casino gambling to the state, and uphold tighter regulations on payday lending.

The winner of the last Dispatch Poll before a presidential election has carried the state every time in modern Ohio history, although the final survey was a dead heat four years ago between Sen. John Kerry and President Bush, who won by 2.1 percentage points.

If Obama’s lead of 52 percent to 46 percent in the new poll holds, he would become the first Democrat to win more than 50 percent of the Ohio vote since Lyndon B. Johnson did in 1964.

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The US Presidential race in Colorado over the past three weeks has trended to show a mid-single digit lead for Senator Obama. Four weeks ago, Obama opened up a seven point lead and since then the Obama campaign has failed to break the race wide open. Three weeks, Obama led by six points and at the end of the last week, Obama still led by five points. Today’s poll from Mason-Dixon Polling and Research commissioned and published by the Denver Post still shows the race in the Mile High State to be a five point margin for Obama. Senator Obama leads 49% to 44% for Senator McCain. Four percent remain as yet undecided. Thus unless voters change their minds, it is unlikely that McCain will carry Colorado. This is especially the case since Colorado more than any other state votes early and by mail. The race in Colorado is thus already in the books.

Democrat Barack Obama has solidified his base and picked up a majority of unaffiliated voters in Colorado, giving him a 5 percentage point lead over Republican John McCain, according to a new Denver Post poll.

With less than 72 hours remaining in the presidential campaign, the results — on top of other statewide polls showing McCain trailing Obama — indicate that the Arizona senator faces substantial challenges in winning the state.

Obama leads McCain 49 percent to 44 percent. Colorado unaffiliated voters, the critical voting bloc making up more than one-third of the state electorate, are backing Obama 57 percent to 32 percent. Four percent of those polled, however, were still undecided.

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A new Mason-Dixon poll for Nevada commissioned and published today by the Las Vegas Review Journal shows the race in the Silver State to be tight and fiercely competitive. Senator Obama leads 47% to 43% with 8% as yet undecided. Polls in Nevada have been remarkably consistent with a narrow four to five point lead for Obama now for about six weeks. McCain’s last lead came on September 11th.

As they battle for Nevada’s five electoral votes, Democratic presidential nominee Barack Obama is beating Republican John McCain, but a surprisingly large proportion of the state’s voters remained undecided as an especially intense race comes down to the wire, according to a new Review-Journal poll.

Obama had the support of 47 percent of likely voters and a 4-point lead over McCain, the choice of 43 percent, the poll, conducted last week by Washington, D.C.-based Mason-Dixon Polling & Research Inc., found.

Eight percent of likely voters said they were still undecided. In other words, nearly one in 10 of those who are almost certain to cast ballots by Election Day still couldn’t say which candidate would get their vote.

Another 2 percent of those surveyed chose another candidate.

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Polls in the Commonwealth of Virginia seem to be once again tightening after Senator Obama had opened up a ten point lead last week. On October 27th, Rasmussen Reports noted a shift back towards Senator McCain finding making gains among white men and undecided voters. Today’s Survey USA (SUSA) poll confirms these findings. A month ago, McCain led by nine points among whites, now he leads by 17 points among whites in the Old Dominion. The difference is even more pronounced among white men in Virginia, McCain now leads by 22 points up from 12 a month ago. McCain is also winning the undecided vote in Virginia by an approximate 3:2 margin though just 2% remain undecided. Two percent are opting for third party candidates with Bob Barr showing some strength. Barr, the Libertarian candidate, may play the spoiler. There is not much of a PUMA factor in the Old Dominion with 90% of Democrats opting for Senator Obama, about two points higher than the national average. Overall, McCain leads 50% to 46%.

Virginia whites veer back toward John McCain in the campaign’s final 72 hours, helping the Republican to close to within 4 points of Democrat Barack Obama, according to research conducted by SurveyUSA for WDBJ-TV Roanoke, WJLA-TV Washington DC, WTVR-TV Richmond, and WJHL-TV Tri-Cities. Obama, in interviews through Saturday night 11/01/08, leads 50% to 46%. Compared to an identical SurveyUSA VA poll 1 week ago, McCain is up 3, Obama is down 2. Among voters age 35 to 49, McCain leads today for the first time in 7 weeks. Immediately after the GOP convention, McCain led by 22 points among white Virginians. That narrowed to a 9-point McCain lead when the stock market fell. Now, at the wire, McCain is back up to a 17 point advantage among whites. In the Shenandoah, McCain moves ahead of Obama. In the DC suburbs, McCain slices into Obama’s lead. Virginia men continued to be more affected by events than Virginia women. 800 adults interviewed 10/30/08 through 11/01/08. Of them, 748 were registered to vote. Of them, 672 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote on or before election day.

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The last few polls in New Mexico (link is to US Census demographic data) pointed to at least a ten point win for Senator Obama in the Land of Enchantment. Today’s poll from Survey USA (SUSA) poll gives Senator Obama a 52% to 45% lead Senator McCain with 2% opting for third parties and 2% as yet undecided. McCain is making modest gains by winning undecided voters by about a 3:2 margin but there aren’t enough undecided voters left to make substantial inroads into Obama’s lead. For McCain to win New Mexico, approximately 4% of the voters would have to change their mind ann switch if the SUSA poll is correct and if the Rasmussen Reports poll is correct that number is closer to 6%. Possible but unlikely.

72 hours till votes are counted in New Mexico, Democrat Barack Obama defeats Republican John McCain, to capture the state’s 5 electoral votes, and Democrat Tom Udall defeats Republican Steve Pearce to capture the US Senate seat vacated by Republican Peter Domenici, according to SurveyUSA’s final pre-election tracking poll conducted for KOB-TV. In four SurveyUSA polls since mid-September, Obama has received 52%, McCain has received 44% or 45%. Of New Mexicans who tell SurveyUSA they have already voted, Obama leads big. Among those who have not yet voted, but who promise to, Obama leads small. The relative size of those two groups will determine Obama’s winning margin. In the contest for United States Senate, Democrat Tom Udall defeats Republican Steve Pearce 56% to 42%, the closest Pearce has been to Udall in 4 tracking polls, and 4 points tighter than the race was mid-October. In Bernalillo County, Udall’s once 24-point advance is now 13, as Pearce breaks 40% for the first time. SurveyUSA interviewed 800 New Mexico adults 10/29/08 through 10/31/08. Of them, 721 were registered to vote; of them, 664 were determined by SurveyUSA to have already voted or to be likely to vote on or before Election Day.

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A number of polls over the past weeks in Wisconsin pointed to a slight tightening of the race in the Badger State. Two polls from SUSA and Rasmussen Reports had given Senator Obama a ten point lead. But a Rasmussen Reports poll just five days ago gave Obama a seven point lead, 51% to 44%. Today’s Badger poll from the University of Wisconsin (pdf.), however, puts the race back at ten points in Obama’s favour among likely voters.

As Election 2008 entered the final two weeks, the recent Badger Poll asked Wisconsin Residents about their views on the presidential election.

• Among all adult residents of Wisconsin, Barack Obama leads John McCain 54% to 38%.

• Among likely voters (N=359) in this survey 52% favor Barack Obama, while 42% favor John McCain.

• Overall, 63% of Wisconsinites have a favorable impression of Senator Obama, while 39% have a favorable impression of Senator McCain.

• When it comes to impressions of the Vice-Presidential candidates, 45% have a favorable impression of Senator Joe Biden and 32% have a favor impression of Alaska Governor Sarah Palin.

The recent Badger Poll also asked which presidential candidate Wisconsinites thought was better able to handle eight issues. More respondents favored Barack Obama on all eight of the issues.

• Better at understanding the problems of ordinary people: 64% Obama 22% McCain.

• Better at handling the economy: 57% Obama 28% McCain.

• Better at providing leadership to the U.S.: 57% Obama 29% McCain.

• Better at dealing with corruption in D.C.: 53% Obama 28% McCain.

• Better at handling foreign relations: 52% Obama 39% McCain.

• Better at handling the situation in Iraq: 52% Obama 37% McCain.

• Better at handling Afghanistan: 51% Obama 36% McCain.

• Better at handling terrorism: 49% Obama 38% McCain.

• The largest issue that Badger State residents thought was the most important in their vote for president was the economy at 39%, with 48% of Obama supporters saying the economy is the most important issue and 29% of McCain supporters saying the economy is the most important issue.

• Only 14% of Wisconsinites are satisfied with they way things are going in the U.S. today, down from 23% in April of 2008. 81% said they are dissatisfied.

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The City Club of Cleveland hosted the leading third party candidates in a Presidential debate. The debate included independent Ralph Nader, Libertarian Party candidate Bob Barr and Constitution Party candidate Chuck Baldwin. The debate runs sixty minutes.

Return to Main

Over the past seven weeks in Georgia (link is to US Census demographic data), Senator McCain’s lead over Senator Obama has narrowed from low double digits to mid single digits reflecting a trend towards seen in many states across the nation. On October 13th, a SUSA poll gave the first indication of potential trouble for McCain in Georgia when it found that his lead had slipped to just eight points. Last week, a Rasmussen Reports poll put McCain’s lead at five points. Today’s follow-up poll from Rasmussen Reports shows McCain maintaining that five point margin, 52% to 47%.

John McCain leads Barack Obama by five percentage points in Georgia for the second straight poll. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the state has McCain ahead 52% to 47%.

Support for both candidates is up one point from a poll conducted last week. Prior to that time, McCain held solid leads over the Democrat since the start of the campaign season. Though McCain’s lead has weakened in the state this month, this is still the fifth straight poll the Republican has received at least 50% support.

Voters in Georgia continue to trust McCain more than Obama on the economy, 52% to 45%. However, unaffiliated voters trust the Democrat slightly more by a 47% to 45% margin. McCain also holds a solid advantage on national security issues.

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