The National Intelligence Council (NIC) has released its “Global Trends 2025: A Transformed World.” It is the fourth unclassified report produced by some of the nation’s keenest global anaylsts on developing trends in the world. From the introduction of the report:

It offers a fresh look at how key global trends might develop over the next 15 years to influence world events. Our report is not meant to be an exercise in prediction or crystal ball-gazing. Mindful that there are many possible “futures,” we offer a range of possibilities and potential discontinuities, as a way of opening our minds to developments we might otherwise miss.

Some of our preliminary assessments are highlighted below:

The whole international system—as constructed following WWII—will be revolutionized. Not only will new players—Brazil, Russia, India and China— have a seat at the international high table, they will bring new stakes and rules of the game.

The unprecedented transfer of wealth roughly from West to East now under way will continue for the foreseeable future.

Unprecedented economic growth, coupled with 1.5 billion more people, will put pressure on resources—particularly energy, food, and water—raising the specter of scarcities emerging as demand outstrips supply.

The potential for conflict will increase owing partly to political turbulence in parts of the greater Middle East.

China and India are likely to emerge atop a multipolar international system as the US economic and political clout declines over the next two decades.

I would add Brazil to that latter prediction. I would also add while a transfer of wealth from West to East is occuring there is also one from energy-poor to energy-rich. One transfer of wealth not occuring is from North to South however and I am not yet sure if a reallocation of wealth internally in the United States from rich to poor will occur or if we will continue on our present trajectory of ever-widening income inequality (it has actually narrowed modestly during the last four years but that’s from a declining stock market not from a progressive tax scheme or other redistributive policies). If income inequality does continue to widen both between North and South and within the United States then I would expect social pressures to build if not explode. I also wonder how nations like China and India will handle widening social inequality and if their own demise might not be in their socio-economic policies that favour the few over the many. Brazil has actually fared better in terms of lifting the poor out of endemic poverty though it has a long way to go.

You can download a copy of the NIC Global Trends 2025 report here (pdf). Below the fold a section of the report on Europe: (more…)

The blockbuster movie Australia starring Nicole Kidman is focusing the world’s attention on a forgotten and abused tribal people, the aborigines of Australia who once numbered over a million but now perhaps number 450,000. From the New York Times:

Aborigines may have numbered as many as a million in 1788 but had dwindled to 93,333 in 1901, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics. They were forced off their land after British settlers began arriving in 1788 and then brutally suppressed. The latest Australian census reports the Aboriginal population as 427,094 among a population of more than 20 million.

Government statistics and reports of private groups show the perilous situation of Aborigines. The Ministerial Council on Education, Employment, Training and Youth Affairs was told in 2000 by a special task force that only 20 percent of Aboriginal students met reading standards, and fewer than 30 percent met writing standards. In some parts of Australia, criminal justice groups say, Aboriginal men are 25 times as likely to go to prison as whites.

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It is pretty evident that the world is looking past the Bush era and anxiously awaiting an Obama Presidency though in the interim the world seems to be having a collective well now what moment. No doubt, President Obama faces an array of foreign policy challenges left adrift by the Bush Administration and no doubt an Obama Presidency will devote most of its international attention to unwinding in Iraq and resolving the war on the terror in the Hindu Kush. When it comes to the Asia-Pacific, Obama faces certainly complex challenges ranging from the economic to security issues to climatic change to environmental degradation to democratic governance and human rights. As with much of the Obama agenda, it’s not clear what an Obama Administration intends or protends.

2008 has been both a remarkable and difficult year in the Asia-Pacific region. The political landscape, for starters, is much altered. We have new leaders in South Korea (more conservative), Australia (more liberal), New Zealand (more conservative), Thailand (more disturbed), the Maldives (fresh and new), and Japan (plus c’est la meme chose, plus ça change). Lingering political crises plague the region in Malaysia and Burma and while a long civil war in Sri Lanka seems to be winding down, it is still on-going. India, which earlier this year passed a nuclear treaty with the United States, is scheduled to head to the polls next year and it’s not clear in which direction India will head. 2008 has been a year of widespread religious rioting and political turmoil across the north of India and the global downturn has been to affect India’s fast-growing economy. And there’s little question that for the past eight years with US attention so diverted, China has taken advantage to pursue its global ambitions in Asia and Africa but also increasingly in Latin America. That Venezuela just signed a military treaty of co-operation with Beijing should worry policy makers in Washington. And then there is North Korea where questions over the health of the sixty-six year old Kim Jong-Il’s arise almost on weekly basis. There are questions over the war on terror in places ranging from India to the Philippines to Indonesia. The downturn in the US economy has already impacted the export-oriented economies of the region. In short, Asian questions loom large.

Here’s a look at questions and views in the global and Asia-Pacific press looking what an Obama Presidency might mean for the region.

Obama Skeptics in Asia
By Richard Halloran for Real Clear Politics.

From Japanese commentators flowed considerable anxiety. Yomiuri, Japan’s largest circulating newspaper, said “so far, Obama has talked only in generalities.” The paper worried that he would be protectionist. Asahi, a leftist paper, said that for Japanese, Obama was an “unknown quantity.”

Yoshihisa Komori, a columnist in the conservative Sankei, called Obama “a frighteningly unknown politician” who would rely less on traditional alliances, such as that with Japan, and more on international organizations in foreign policy.

In South Korea, the largest newspaper, Chosun Ilbo, applauded Obama’s election but added: “Yet Obama has shortcomings, such as scant diplomatic experience and no administrative career. He is also inclined to protectionist trade policies on behalf of the U.S. economy.”

Filipinos split on Obama’s stance on the 600 American troops posted in the southern Philippines to help the Philippine Armed Forces fight Moro insurgents and terrorists. Some urged Obama to keep the troops there, others urged him to withdraw them.

The Thai newspaper Nation quoted Obama: “Americans have sent a message to the world that we have never been just a collection of red states and blue states.” The paper then lamented the bitter “red and yellow” divisions in Thailand today, wishing they “could correspond to blue and red in the US.”

Singaporean Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong said he had written to Obama: “Many issues will claim your attention. May I make a case for the importance of Southeast Asia to the US, a region which is not unfamiliar to you,” referring to Obama’s childhood in neighboring Indonesia. A writer for the Straits Times, Joanna Lee, however, was skeptical of Obama’s emphasis on hope: “Alas, I’m not sure hope is enough.”

Global Man of Mystery
By Greg Sheridan in The Australian.

One piece of good news is that he may keep Bush’s Defence Secretary Robert Gates in position. Gates knows Australia well and values the Australian alliance. He will be perhaps the only person about whom that can confidently be said at the top of an Obama administration. There is no sign that Obama has any knowledge of or interest in Australia, though it is good that he took a congratulatory call from Rudd.

It is conceivable that some American enemies, such as Iran, may use Obama’s election as the opportunity to strike a grand bargain with Washington.

It is equally possible that they may see weakness in Obama and try to exploit it, in effect testing the new president.

(more…)

As widely expected given the recent downturn in New Zealand’s economy, voters there ousted Helen Clark and her left-of centre Labour government after three terms in office by electing John Key and the conservative National Party. The National Party won 45.5% of the vote to Labour’s 33.8%. National will have 59 seats in the 122-seat parliament and Key has secured support from ACT New Zealand and United Future to govern.

ACT won 3.7% of the vote and will have five members in parliament, including Roger Douglas, 70, who was finance minister in the 1984-1990 Labour government. Together with United, the National Party will have a governing bloc of 65 seats. Labour will have 43 seats, and with the Green Party and the Progressives will form a 52-seat opposition bloc. The non-aligned Maori Party won five seats. Mr. Key said he will hold talks with Maori Party leaders and may include them in his government.

Helen Clark resigned as leader of the Labour Party but will remain in the back benches. She had a formidable run as a left-leaning PM and will be missed on the world stage.

More from the UK Guardian.

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The urban affairs organization, City Mayors through its website is launching a new service that all residents of 34 cities world-wide to rate their mayor. Fifteen mayors in the United States and Canada can be rated. Fourteen mayors in Europe plus two in Latin American and three in the Asia-Pacific region can be rated.

City Mayors introduces Mayor Monitor (MM), which allows residents and non-residents to rate the performance of mayors and highlight their ‘best’ and ‘worst’ decisions. Mayor Monitor uses the widely understood one-to-ten rating system, where ‘1′ signifies an extremely poor performance and ‘10′ ‘an outstanding one.

Over time, Mayor Monitor will provide a valuable track record of mayors’ successes and failures as well as their popularity among residents and a wider public. The results will be published on the City Mayors website and updated monthly.

In order to eliminate multiple, fraudulent and/or organised rating by political foes and friends of mayors, all submissions are processed manually and, if deemed questionable, cross-checked.

Links to the cities are below the fold. The rating process is simple and will take no more than a few minutes, if that. (more…)

Here is the Sunday, June 22nd, 2008 edition of interesting reads and news from around the world.

Australia Most Obese
Australia has overtaken the US as the world’s most obese nation, according to a study published in Melbourne yesterday. The Baker Heart Institute’s study, entitled Australia’s Future Fat Bomb, found that 26% of adult Australians, or close to 4m people, were obese. Twenty-five percent of Americans are obese. More from the Financial Times.

Most Britons Doubt Humans Cause Climate Change
The majority of the British public is still not convinced that climate change is caused by humans - and many others believe scientists are exaggerating the problem, according to an exclusive poll for The Observer.

Tehran Backing Taliban
The UK Guardian reports that British special forces operating on the border between Afghanistan and Iran have uncovered fresh evidence that Tehran is actively backing insurgents fighting UK troops. The likelihood of an attack on Iran is growing.

Protests in Turkey Ahead of Court Decision on Islamic Party
On Saturday evening, a diverse crowd of several thousand people marched in central Istanbul, blowing whistles, banging drums and carrying round, pink signs that read, “Make Noise Against Coups.” More from the New York Times.

Timor-Leste’s Police Not Ready
Asia Sentinel reports that the United Nations, called in two years ago in the wake of a breakdown of East Timor’s security forces that led to dozens of deaths, appears set to end its training of local police, many of whom are still unfit to be in uniform, leading to fears that carnage will begin again in a country ill-prepared for it.

Flooding in India
Major flooding is devastating large areas of Orissa, Assam and West Bengal in eastern India. More from The Hindu.

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