The National Intelligence Council (NIC) has released its “Global Trends 2025: A Transformed World.” It is the fourth unclassified report produced by some of the nation’s keenest global anaylsts on developing trends in the world. From the introduction of the report:
It offers a fresh look at how key global trends might develop over the next 15 years to influence world events. Our report is not meant to be an exercise in prediction or crystal ball-gazing. Mindful that there are many possible “futures,” we offer a range of possibilities and potential discontinuities, as a way of opening our minds to developments we might otherwise miss.
Some of our preliminary assessments are highlighted below:
The whole international system—as constructed following WWII—will be revolutionized. Not only will new players—Brazil, Russia, India and China— have a seat at the international high table, they will bring new stakes and rules of the game.
The unprecedented transfer of wealth roughly from West to East now under way will continue for the foreseeable future.
Unprecedented economic growth, coupled with 1.5 billion more people, will put pressure on resources—particularly energy, food, and water—raising the specter of scarcities emerging as demand outstrips supply.
The potential for conflict will increase owing partly to political turbulence in parts of the greater Middle East.
China and India are likely to emerge atop a multipolar international system as the US economic and political clout declines over the next two decades.
I would add Brazil to that latter prediction. I would also add while a transfer of wealth from West to East is occuring there is also one from energy-poor to energy-rich. One transfer of wealth not occuring is from North to South however and I am not yet sure if a reallocation of wealth internally in the United States from rich to poor will occur or if we will continue on our present trajectory of ever-widening income inequality (it has actually narrowed modestly during the last four years but that’s from a declining stock market not from a progressive tax scheme or other redistributive policies). If income inequality does continue to widen both between North and South and within the United States then I would expect social pressures to build if not explode. I also wonder how nations like China and India will handle widening social inequality and if their own demise might not be in their socio-economic policies that favour the few over the many. Brazil has actually fared better in terms of lifting the poor out of endemic poverty though it has a long way to go.
You can download a copy of the NIC Global Trends 2025 report here (pdf). Below the fold a section of the report on Europe: (more…)
