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On August 30th, General Stanley McChrystal, the top military commander in Afghanistan, submitted a confidential assessment of the war to Defense Secretary Robert Gates which is now under review by the President and his team. Tonight, a copy of the rather stark 66-page assessment, with some operational details removed at the Pentagon’s request to avoid compromising future operations, was posted on the website of the Washington Post (pdf).
In the assessment, General McChrystal sets the stage by noting that “the stakes in Afghanistan are high” warning that “stability . . . is an imperative” for should the current government fail then “Afghanistan could again become a base for terrorism.”
“Success,” he writes in his assessment, “demands a comprehensive counterinsurgency campaign.” General McChrystal adds that “the key take away from this assessment is the urgent need a significant change to our strategy and the way we think and operate.”
Rather than seize terrain or destroy insurgent forces, General McChrystal argues that the objective must be the Afghan population.
In the struggle to gain the support of the people, every action we take must be leverage in the complex system. Gaining their support will require a better understanding of the people’s choices and needs. However, progress is hindered by the dual threat of a resilient insurgency and a crisis of confidence in the government and the international coalition. To win their support, we must protect the people from both of these threats.
McChrystal goes to describe the Afghan conflict as “a war of ideas” and that protecting the Afghan population from insurgent coercion and intimidation “requires a persistent presence and focus that cannot be interrupt without risking serious setback.”
While the General believes that the Afghan conflict is a long-term one, he warns that “failure to gain the initiative and reverse insurgent momentum in the near term (next 12 months) — while Afghan security capacity matures — risks an outcome where defeating the insurgency is no longer possible.”
Throughout the document, General McChrystal warns that unless he is provided with more forces and is allows to pursue a robust counterinsurgency strategy, the war in Afghanistan is most likely lost. However, the assessment does not mention the number of troops required to tip the struggle in our favour.