Archive for December 20th, 2008
The President Wonders “How Did We Get Here?”

In Sunday’s New York Times, there is this gem:

The global financial system was teetering on the edge of collapse when President Bush and his economics team huddled in the Roosevelt Room of the White House for a briefing that, in the words of one participant, “scared the hell out of everybody.”

It was Sept. 18. Lehman Brothers had just gone belly-up, overwhelmed by toxic mortgages. Bank of America had swallowed Merrill Lynch in a hastily arranged sale. Two days earlier, Mr. Bush had agreed to pump $85 billion into the failing insurance giant American International Group.

The president listened as Ben S. Bernanke, chairman of the Federal Reserve, laid out the latest terrifying news: The credit markets, gripped by panic, had frozen overnight, and banks were refusing to lend money.

Then his Treasury secretary, Henry M. Paulson Jr., told him that to stave off disaster, he would have to sign off on the biggest government bailout in history.

Mr. Bush, according to several people in the room, paused for a single, stunned moment to take it all in.

“How,” he wondered aloud, “did we get here?”

The short answer is Milton Friedman, Arthur Laffner, Robert Hall, Jude Wanniski, Robert Mundell and Michael Boskin in theory as well as Ronald Reagan, Donald Regan, James Baker, Newt Gingrich, and Alan Greenspan among many others in practice. A longer answer would take a volume but to perhaps put it succinctly for 28 years the Republican party has advocated a deadly framework of economic policies revolving around lower taxes, free markets and free trade. And within this mix is the answer to how we got “here”.

The conservative recipe for economic prosperity had three main ingredients: cut taxes, low inflation through monetary policy controls and free the market which is an euphemism for unfettered and unregulated markets. The first and last are simply toxic to any large economy. Low inflation is a laudable goal but it’s not clear that monetary policy alone is capable of controlling inflation. From the early 1980s through this year, I can make the case that inflation was largely the result of one key factor, we had cheap energy prices. Absent that, inflation can rear its ugly head at any point and earlier this year as oil prices approached $150 a barrel we began to see global inflation tick up. And tapping China’s cheap and vast labor reserves also has been a significant factor in checking global inflation since 1991. Both of these factors are outside the control of US monetary policy.

Cutting taxes was the conservative panacea for increasing the rate of savings but when all is said and done cutting taxes has done nothing to increase the overall savings rate of Americans (it’s actually fallen since 1997). As James Galbraith has noted point-number one about supply-side economics is that it is “a doctrine that rests on the effect of an incentive directed at an extremely small group number of people.” And thus the only thing that mattered is whether that small number of Americans controlled a significantly large amount of the nation’s total income so that it actually made a difference in terms of the overall savings rate whether they could be induced to save more. It’s fair to say we have had an uptick in personal consumption among that targeted 1% of Americans that the GOP’s tax policies have favored, it’s less clear that their propensity to invest has been sparked. (more…)

Dr. John P. Holdren

John P. Holdren is Professor of Environmental Policy at the Kennedy School of Government and in the Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences at Harvard University. He is the director of the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution Research Center and board chairman of the American Association for the Advancement of Science. He will serve as the President’s science adviser as director of the White House Office of Science and Technology.

The videos are from a conference at the Kennedy School of Government in 2007. The title of the lecture is “Global Climate Disruption: What Do We Know, What Should We Do?”

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Dr. Jane Lubchenco

Dr. Jane Lubchenco, Oregon State University

Dr. Jane Lubchenco, a marine biologist from Oregon State University, will lead the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, which overseas ocean and atmospheric studies and performs much of the government’s research on global warming.

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Al-Shabab’s Reign of Terror in Kismayo

I wrote earlier today about the militant Islamist Somali group al-Shabab which has taken control of several areas of southern and central Somalia. In the areas they control they have begun destroying anything deemed un-Islamic, including graves and churches. Al Jazeera’s Mohammed Adow reports exclusively from Kismayo.

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Greek Protests Turn Their Wrath on Athens’ Christmas Tree

Protesters attacked a city-sponsored Christmas tree in central Athens, tossing garbage and hanging trash bags from its branches before clashing with riot police. Give Greek anarchists credit, they are nothing but creative.

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Caroline on the Issues

Caroline Kennedy Schlossberg’s political views are emerging as she responds to questionnaires from Politico and the New York Times. As the Times notes, her positions largely reflects “mainstream Democratic views” and do not deviate much from Senator Clinton’s or Senator Schumer. The one major exception is gay marriage where Caroline supports “full equality and marriage rights for gay and lesbian couples.” Nor do I think the fact that she doesn’t articulate positions on a number of subjects such as on the financial industry to be a problem. She clearly faces a learning curve but she’s bright, articulate and has a liberal worldview.

Here is the questionnaire from Politico

QUESTION 1: Will you commit to supporting your party’s nominee for mayor against Michael Bloomberg in 2009? Did you back the mayor’s efforts to suspend term limits?

ANSWER: Declined comment.

QUESTION 2: Same-sex marriage. Do you support the right of gay and lesbian couples to marry? Do you think it’s appropriate that Rick Warren, who campaigned to ban gay marriage, is delivering the invocation at Obama’s inauguration? If not, have you expressed that to the president-elect?

ANSWER: “Caroline supports full equality and marriage rights for gay and lesbian couples.”

QUESTION 3: Do you think Senator Schumer made a mistake when he successfully pushed to have the Glass-Steagall Act repealed, breaking down barriers between securities firms and banks? What priorities would you set for restructuring New York’s financial services industry? And which of the current financial regulatory plans would you support?

ANSWER: “At this time, Caroline does not have a specific plan to fix New York’s financial services industry. But, if selected, she will work with President Elect Obama, Sen. Chuck Schumer and Sen. Chris Dodd to pass laws that protect investors and working families across New York and the country.”

QUESTION 4: Governor Paterson has promised to deal with New York’s deficit by cutting services and other spending, and promised not to impose any income tax increases, even on the wealthy. Do you think he was right to rule out a tax hike?

ANSWER: “Based on what she’s read about the budget released a few days ago, Caroline believes that Governor Paterson’s budget appropriately includes both revenue increases and budget cuts while still protecting the most vulnerable. On the issue of where to cut or what revenue to increase, she leaves that up to the governor and the legislature. Governor Paterson was one of the first elected officials in the nation to sound the alarm about our fiscal crisis and he has led the charge to get Washington to give aid to the New York because we have been hit so hard by the financial meltdown.”

QUESTION 5: Did you support or oppose the war at the time of the Oct. 2002 resolution authorizing the use of force? Is there any way to document your stance? Did you say anything public, or participate in any anti-war demonstrations? And, do you now think that 16 months is a reasonable timeline for getting American combat troops out of Iraq?

ANSWER: “Caroline opposed the war in Iraq from the beginning. She supports President-Elect Obama’s plan to work with our military leaders to begin a responsible withdrawal.”

QUESTION 6: Did you support or oppose the lawsuit charging that Albany shortchanges New York City on school aid? Do you support the use of local, state and federal money for charter schools? Do you think teachers at charter schools should be unionized like public school teachers?

ANSWER: “Caroline did not take a public position at the time on CFE, but supports fair funding for New York City schools. She supports charter schools, using government money for charters and the right of teachers to organize at charters if they choose.”

QUESTION 7: Do you support the auto bailout President Bush announced by Friday?

ANSWER: “Yes, Caroline supports the auto industry bailout package passed by the House of Representatives earlier this month and welcomes the president’s actions yesterday to use TARP funds.”

QUESTION 8: Do you think Israel should negotiate with Hamas? Do you agree with Israel’s Gaza Strip embargo? Would you support an Israeli airstrike on Iran if they felt Tehran’s nuclear program represented a threat to their survival?

ANSWER: “Caroline Kennedy strongly supports a safe and secure Israel. She believe Israel’s security decisions should be left to Israel.”

I am not opposed to the selection of Caroline Kennedy Schlossberg as a replacement for Senator Clinton. Pluses include that she is not a career politician but a highly educated and well-informed private citizen, has a deep understanding of the Bill of Rights and Constitutional liberties, incorruptible, and is close to the President-elect. The first two augur well for the nation, the latter for the state of New York. She’s also just Caroline. The name recognition is priceless. I’ll also note that there may be better more deserving candidates. The decision is David Patterson’s.

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Somalia’s Almujahidin Al-Shabab Imposes Sharia Law in Areas Under Their Control

The Islamist armed group Almujahidin al-Shabab (Arabic: الشباب for “the youth”‎) has imposed the strict Islamic law, the Sharia, in areas under their control in Somalia. Everything deemed un-Islamic has been quickly destroyed. In late November, al-Shabab fighters flogged 32 dancers for violating strict Sharia edicts after arresting them for taking part in a traditional dance near the capital Mogadishu. The team was flogged in Balad township, 30 kilometers (18 miles) north of the capital Mogadishu, where they were arrested while performing a folklore dance. “They were found dancing to traditional songs outside Balad last night and were flogged this morning. They were arrested by Islamist fighters,” said Mohamed Sheikh Hussein, an elder.

Zakaryya Abdelhady, a professor of Islamic thought and culture at Qatar University in Doha, discusses Sharia and al-Shabab’s actions with Al Jazeera. In March of this year, the United States designated Almujahidin al-Shabab as a foreign terrorist group.

A profile of al-Shabab from the BBC:

An Islamist group called al-Shabab, which literally means “the lads” in Somali, has been added to the United States’ list of “foreign terrorist organisations”.

Its name stems from its first incarnation as the youth and military wing of a group of Sharia courts who controlled much of southern and central Somalia in 2006.

When, at the end of that year, the Union of Islamic Courts (UIC) was driven from power by Ethiopian troops supporting Somalia’s weak transitional government, al-Shabab melted away into remote and distant parts of the country.

But it did not disappear.

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The President-elect’s Weekly Address — The Return of Science

“The truth is that promoting science isn’t just about providing resources—it’s about protecting free and open inquiry. It’s about ensuring that facts and evidence are never twisted or obscured by politics or ideology. It’s about listening to what our scientists have to say, even when it’s inconvenient—especially when it’s inconvenient. Because the highest purpose of science is the search for knowledge, truth and a greater understanding of the world around us. That will be my goal as President of the United States—and I could not have a better team to guide me in this work.” — President-elect Barack Obama

President-elect Obama announced the appointment of Dr. John Holdren as Assistant to the President for Science and Technology, Director of the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy, and Co-Chair of the President’s Council of Advisors on Science and Technology (PCAST). Obama also named Dr. Harold Varmus and Dr. Eric Lander as the other co-chairs of PCAST. Addtionally, he named Dr. Jane Lubchenco as his choice to lead the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

The transcript is below the fold. (more…)

California Attorney General Jerry Brown Urges Overturning Prop 8

California’s Attorney General Jerry Brown has filed a brief to the California Supreme Court which is reviewing the anti-gay marriage Proposition 8 arguing that the measure is constitutionally indefensible and should be overturned. Brown wrote in the brief that “Proposition 8 must be invalidated because the amendment process cannot be used to extinguish fundamental constitutional rights without compelling justification.” Brown went on to argue that the constitutional amendment was “inconsistent with the guarantees of individual liberty” in California’s governing charter. “Proposition 8 must be invalidated because the amendment process cannot be used to extinguish fundamental constitutional rights without compelling justification,” Brown said. The authors of the state Constitution, he said, did not intend “to put a group’s right to enjoy liberty to a popular vote.” In essence, the Attorney General is arguing that minority rights should not be subject to the whims of the majority. More from the New York Times:

In a sharp rebuke to supporters of a contested state ballot measure that banned same-sex marriage, the California attorney general said Friday that the measure was constitutionally indefensible and should be overturned.

The attorney general, Jerry Brown, had previously hinted of his opposition to the measure, Proposition 8, but made his legal opinion concrete on Friday in a brief to the California Supreme Court, which is reviewing the measure. “Proposition 8 must be invalidated because the amendment process cannot be used to extinguish fundamental constitutional rights without compelling justification,” Mr. Brown said in a statement.

Opponents have argued that the proposition fundamentally altered the state Constitution by taking away the right to marry from same-sex couples, who had been free to do so since May, when the California Supreme Court legalized such marriages. Proposition 8 overturned that decision by defining marriage in California as between only men and women.

Supporters of Proposition 8 asked the court in a separate legal brief filed Friday to invalidate the approximately 18,000 same-sex weddings performed before the ban was passed.

“The language, policy, history and intent of Proposition 8 do not permit recognition of some same-sex marriages but not others,” read the brief, which was also written by the prominent conservative lawyer Kenneth W. Starr. “None are valid or recognized in California.”

Opponents of Proposition 8 said the brief was another effort to strip rights from same-sex couples who were already hurting from the measure’s passage.

“This is an offensive attempt to rip away people’s marriages,” said Geoff Kors, the executive director of Equality California, a gay rights group. “There was nothing in Proposition 8 that was retroactive.”

Mr. Brown’s action did not surprise supporters of Proposition 8. “It’s no secret that the attorney general opposed Proposition 8 during the campaign,” said Andrew Pugno, the lawyer for the group behind the ban, Protect Marriage.

Both sides have been waging a public relations battle. Supporters of same-sex marriage have staged a series of protests since the vote, with a candlelight vigil planned in several cities on Saturday. Opponents of same-sex marriage have urged protesters to accept the will of voters.

The court could hear oral arguments as soon as March, and a decision is expected next year.

The Attorney General, it should be noted, is expected to run for Governor in 2010.

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Zimbabwe — If Not Now, When?

The people of Zimbabwe are facing starvation while their government does little or nothing to help. The country is already battling an outbreak of cholera that has claimed over 1,000 lives and there are fears that food shortages could prove the final tipping point to disaster. Britain’s Sky News has been banned from working inside Zimbabwe, but Sky’s Chief Correspondent Stuart Ramsay was inside Zimbabwe recently and filed this report.

Robert Mugabe has made a mockery of Zimbabwe’s election refusing to yield to the will of the Zimbabwean people and then held the world community at bay for the better part of a year promising to share power but only usurping further. It’s time to remove Robert Mugabe by force.

Must an entire nation suffer because of the intransigence of one man? If we do not act now, then when? We failed Cambodia, we failed Rwanda, we failed Timor Leste, we are failing Darfur, we are failing Tibet and we are failing Zimbabwe.

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