In Sunday’s New York Times, there is this gem:
The global financial system was teetering on the edge of collapse when President Bush and his economics team huddled in the Roosevelt Room of the White House for a briefing that, in the words of one participant, “scared the hell out of everybody.”
It was Sept. 18. Lehman Brothers had just gone belly-up, overwhelmed by toxic mortgages. Bank of America had swallowed Merrill Lynch in a hastily arranged sale. Two days earlier, Mr. Bush had agreed to pump $85 billion into the failing insurance giant American International Group.
The president listened as Ben S. Bernanke, chairman of the Federal Reserve, laid out the latest terrifying news: The credit markets, gripped by panic, had frozen overnight, and banks were refusing to lend money.
Then his Treasury secretary, Henry M. Paulson Jr., told him that to stave off disaster, he would have to sign off on the biggest government bailout in history.
Mr. Bush, according to several people in the room, paused for a single, stunned moment to take it all in.
“How,” he wondered aloud, “did we get here?”
The short answer is Milton Friedman, Arthur Laffner, Robert Hall, Jude Wanniski, Robert Mundell and Michael Boskin in theory as well as Ronald Reagan, Donald Regan, James Baker, Newt Gingrich, and Alan Greenspan among many others in practice. A longer answer would take a volume but to perhaps put it succinctly for 28 years the Republican party has advocated a deadly framework of economic policies revolving around lower taxes, free markets and free trade. And within this mix is the answer to how we got “here”.
The conservative recipe for economic prosperity had three main ingredients: cut taxes, low inflation through monetary policy controls and free the market which is an euphemism for unfettered and unregulated markets. The first and last are simply toxic to any large economy. Low inflation is a laudable goal but it’s not clear that monetary policy alone is capable of controlling inflation. From the early 1980s through this year, I can make the case that inflation was largely the result of one key factor, we had cheap energy prices. Absent that, inflation can rear its ugly head at any point and earlier this year as oil prices approached $150 a barrel we began to see global inflation tick up. And tapping China’s cheap and vast labor reserves also has been a significant factor in checking global inflation since 1991. Both of these factors are outside the control of US monetary policy.
Cutting taxes was the conservative panacea for increasing the rate of savings but when all is said and done cutting taxes has done nothing to increase the overall savings rate of Americans (it’s actually fallen since 1997). As James Galbraith has noted point-number one about supply-side economics is that it is “a doctrine that rests on the effect of an incentive directed at an extremely small group number of people.” And thus the only thing that mattered is whether that small number of Americans controlled a significantly large amount of the nation’s total income so that it actually made a difference in terms of the overall savings rate whether they could be induced to save more. It’s fair to say we have had an uptick in personal consumption among that targeted 1% of Americans that the GOP’s tax policies have favored, it’s less clear that their propensity to invest has been sparked. (more…)