Archive for December 7th, 2008
The War Next Door — A Closer Look at the Merida Initiative

In the above video, the second of Al Jazeera’s special series on Mexico’s drug war, Franc Contreras reports from Ciudad Juarez, which has the highest murder rate in the country.

As I noted in my earlier posts on Mexico’s spiraling drug war, the Bush Administration has proposed $1.4 billion assistance package for Mexico and Central America called the Merida Initiative. The Washington Office on Latin America finds that:

* The Merida Initiative, though worthy in principle, does not offer sufficient support for long-term police and justice reform in Mexico and lacks built-in accountability measures; continued support for Mexico’s armed forces’ involvement in counter-narcotics tasks will not contribute to strengthening civilian public security institutions or guaranteeing respect for human rights.

* The plan offers no progress at all on the crucial tasks of cutting drug demand in the United States and for addressing arms trafficking from the U.S. into Mexico.

It’s a fair assessment (the full brief is at the WOLA website). Stemming the flow of drugs by attacking supply has proved illusory as long as the demand side remains largely ignored. Mexico drug trade revolves around a conduit of cocaine from South America and a growing methamphetamine trade. The issue in latter problem is the trade of ephedrine, a sympathomimetic amine commonly used as a stimulant, appetite suppressant, concentration aid, decongestant, and to treat hypotension associated with anaesthesia. Ephedrine is similar in structure to the synthetic derivatives amphetamine and methamphetamine. Ephedrine is only produced at nine chemical plants worldwide primarily in India and China but its sale and trade is largely unregulated and easily circumvented.

Mexico, the world’s largest producer of methamphetamine that is mostly consumed in the United States, completely banned imports of ephedrine last year in a desperate attempt to curtail the production of methamphetamine. Drug control agencies have now noticed that ephedrine is increasingly entering South America and Central America from China and then smuggled into Mexico. In late 2006, officials in Argentina began seeing a big jump in imports of ephedrine and pseudoephedrine. According to Argentina’s drug prevention office, Argentina imported 19 tonnes of ephedrine and pseudoephedrine last year and 16 tonnes as of August 2008. US drug officials and local media have cited much higher numbers. Under pressure, Argentina announced tighter controls over the import and use of ephedrine to curb production of the illegal drug methamphetamine and said it will help the pharmaceutical industry find alternative ingredients. It’s a start but the question is when will the US attack the demand side of the equation?

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“Jeb Bush in the Senate. Just Imagine It.”

Jeb Bush in the Senate. Just imagine it.

It’s a horrifying thought but if that’s the best you got then go ahead make our day. With Florida’s Republican Senator Mel Martinez announcing this week that he would not run for re-election, the right seems to be setting its early sights on former Florida Governor Jeb Bush, the last Bush standing. Peter Robinson, a research fellow at the Hoover Institution and a weekly columnist at Forbes, is the latest to join this chorus with a column titled Run Jeb Run.

On Tuesday, Florida Sen. Mel Martinez announced that he would retire in 2010, not run for reelection. The Internet instantly began to hum with speculation that Bush would seek to succeed him. That evening, the former governor confirmed in an e-mail to Politico that he was indeed “considering it.” “Considering” is hardly “campaigning,” but Republicans rejoiced all the same.

Jeb Bush in the Senate. Just imagine it.

The first day he walked into the chamber, Bush would already possess a more impressive record of accomplishment–not talk, accomplishment–than all but a few of his new colleagues. For that matter, his record would compare favorably with those of Vice President Joe Biden, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, and nearly everyone else in Washington, including President Barack Obama.

Bush would have standing. He would be able to speak with authority. At a time when the Republican Party would almost certainly still find itself on the defensive, he would prove utterly unapologetic.

Could Bush be able to help reunite the disparate elements in the GOP? Yes indeed, as few others could. Conservative by both temperament and conviction, Bush would win over Republican true believers. “We have different brands of conservatism,” he told me in an interview last year, “but limited government is really at the core.”

Limited government? Surely you jest. Conservatives have zip, zero, zilch credibility on limited government. You can’t have limited government and have an empire and the incongruence of that should be self-evident but apparently it’s not. Unlike older brother George, Jeb, it bears reminding, is a signatory to the ill-fated Project for the Next American Century, that not even a decade long exercise in government that added $4 trillion plus dollars to the national debt. If that’s limited government, I want no part of it.

Go ahead, run Jeb. Make our day.

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Ghana Heads to the Polls

Ghana headed to the polls today in Presidential and parliamentary elections. Early reports note a heavy turnout in the West African nation and now one of Africa’s modest success stories. President John Kufuor is stepping down after serving the maximum two terms. The race to succeed him is considered to be a tight and competitive one. The main contenders are ex-Foreign Minister Nana Akufo-Addo and the opposition’s John Atta Mills of the National Democratic Congress who is a candidate for the top office for a third time. In total, there are eight contenders in the race to succeed President Kufuor.

While Ghana has achieved a measure of prosperity under President Kufuor, critics note that that prosperity has been uneven with the poor falling further behind.

Ghana Blogs & Election News:

Ghana Elections 2008
Sakyi Addo
Ghana Election Watch

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Greek Police Brutality Sparks Violent Protests Against Conservative Government

Greece has erupted in widespread violent protests after a 15 year old boy was killed by the police. But the riots have quickly taken on a political character against the conservative government of Prime Minister Costas Karamanlis.

From Reuters:

Greek demonstrators vowed another wave of protests on Monday, two days after police shot dead a 15-year-old boy sparking riots that left dozens injured across the country.

Thousands of youths clashed with police and rampaged through Athens and other cities this weekend, burning scores of cars and shops in the worst protests to erupt in Greece in years.

Pressure on the conservative government showed no sign of easing. The Greek Communist Party called a mass rally in central Athens for Monday evening and the socialist PASOK opposition, which has risen to top spot in opinion polls recently, said Greeks must denounce the government.

“We must answer the government’s policies en masse and peacefully,” the PASOK youth branch said in a statement.

University professors, who had planned to join a nationwide workers’ strike against pension reforms and economic policies on Wednesday, said they would now stage a three-day walkout starting Monday. Blogs popular with high school students urged them to stay away from class.

Ignoring the government’s appeals for calm, leftist demonstrators and anarchists staged running battles with police after the teenager’s killing, which shocked the nation.

“Justice has taken over,” Interior Minister Prokopis Pavlopoulos told reporters after an urgent government meeting on Sunday. “Raw violence directed at social peace and the property of innocent people is inconceivable.”

The minister submitted his resignation but it was rejected by Prime Minister Costas Karamanlis, who has seen his government’s popularity eroded in the face of scandals and as the world economic crisis bites.

Here is a Greek blog worth checking out:

Vinos Political Blog.

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Peaking Your Interest — Understanding Energy Return

In his presentation at the ASPO-USA 2008 conference, independent financial consultant Jim Hansen runs every investment through the peak oil test. He explores traditional energy investments; opportunities in renewables, rail, and electrifying the transportation system; areas to avoid like airlines and trucking; and what to watch, like electric cars and the unwinding of globalization.

In this interview, ecologist and professor Charlie Hall looks at energy return on the energy invested. Whether it’s a cheetah chasing antelopes, or humans making ethanol — the energy we get back has to exceed the energy we put in, or the story is over. He compares oil’s energy return in the 1930’s (1 calorie invested returned 100 calories of energy) with now (1:12) and declining. Ethanol from corn, by the way, offers a meager return of just 14.2% or 1:1.14. What this suggests is that age of cheap energy is coming to an end, if not already over. As the amount of energy return declines, the cost of said energy increases. It’s a world of diminishing returns.

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