I’ve been pondering this question as I sift through the exit polling data and other data from the election. After all, Obama won by only 6.8% amidst the greatest financial crisis in 80 years and after 8 years of serious misrule by an incompetent and corrupt Administration. Let’s not forget that George W. Bush is the first President since James Madison in 1814 to lose an American city. Madison saw Washington burnt to the ground by the British. Bush oversaw the drowning of New Orleans. In light of the failures of the Bush Administration, why wasn’t this election a landslide?
To that question, I can only think that of two possibilities. One, Barack Obama was a flawed candidate comparatively to other possibilities and perhaps Hillary Clinton would have won by wider popular vote margin though I don’t think she could have carried North Carolina and perhaps Indiana but she would have likely carried West Virginia, Arkansas and Missouri. Even so, I tend to think that Senator Clinton wouldn’t have fared that much better at the top of the Democratic ticket. The second possibility and I think the better thesis is that the country is emerging from forty years of Republican rule deeply polarized. So just how polarized are we? Is the polarization cultural, economic or ideological? And how do we heal these divisions?
I don’t quite have an answer to my questions but it is a relief that others are also pondering the question. Over on Real Clear Politics Stuart Rothenberg offers this assessment:
The country’s deepest and most-explosive division revolves around culture.
Four in 10 voters attend religious services at least weekly, and they went for John McCain, 55 percent to 43 percent. Almost an equal number of voters, 42 percent, said they attend religious services only occasionally, and they went for Obama, 57 percent to 42 percent. And among those voters who never attend religious services, Obama won by 37 points, 67 percent to 30 percent.
On guns, another longtime indicator of cultural values, divisions remain deep. A substantial 42 percent of Americans own guns, and they voted for McCain, 62 percent to 37 percent. Those voters who don’t own a gun, 58 percent of all respondents in the exit poll, went for Obama by 32 points, 65 percent to 33 percent.
It’s true, of course, that if Americans no longer care about cultural issues, as some suggest, these differences are unimportant. But with gay marriage clearly remaining a major issue on the national radar and with Supreme Court vacancies and appointments nearly certain in the next few years, it’s unlikely that cultural issues will evaporate.
Further, the size of Obama’s victory and the nature of the problems that he will confront don’t suggest the end of division.
Obama’s 53 percent victory was a solid win, far more decisive than the last two presidential elections. But it was hardly a blowout.
