The National Intelligence Council (NIC) has released its “Global Trends 2025: A Transformed World.” It is the fourth unclassified report produced by some of the nation’s keenest global anaylsts on developing trends in the world. From the introduction of the report:

It offers a fresh look at how key global trends might develop over the next 15 years to influence world events. Our report is not meant to be an exercise in prediction or crystal ball-gazing. Mindful that there are many possible “futures,” we offer a range of possibilities and potential discontinuities, as a way of opening our minds to developments we might otherwise miss.

Some of our preliminary assessments are highlighted below:

The whole international system—as constructed following WWII—will be revolutionized. Not only will new players—Brazil, Russia, India and China— have a seat at the international high table, they will bring new stakes and rules of the game.

The unprecedented transfer of wealth roughly from West to East now under way will continue for the foreseeable future.

Unprecedented economic growth, coupled with 1.5 billion more people, will put pressure on resources—particularly energy, food, and water—raising the specter of scarcities emerging as demand outstrips supply.

The potential for conflict will increase owing partly to political turbulence in parts of the greater Middle East.

China and India are likely to emerge atop a multipolar international system as the US economic and political clout declines over the next two decades.

I would add Brazil to that latter prediction. I would also add while a transfer of wealth from West to East is occuring there is also one from energy-poor to energy-rich. One transfer of wealth not occuring is from North to South however and I am not yet sure if a reallocation of wealth internally in the United States from rich to poor will occur or if we will continue on our present trajectory of ever-widening income inequality (it has actually narrowed modestly during the last four years but that’s from a declining stock market not from a progressive tax scheme or other redistributive policies). If income inequality does continue to widen both between North and South and within the United States then I would expect social pressures to build if not explode. I also wonder how nations like China and India will handle widening social inequality and if their own demise might not be in their socio-economic policies that favour the few over the many. Brazil has actually fared better in terms of lifting the poor out of endemic poverty though it has a long way to go.

You can download a copy of the NIC Global Trends 2025 report here (pdf). Below the fold a section of the report on Europe: (more…)

An aide to Barack Obama’s transition team says the President-elect is on track to nominate Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton as Secretary of State after Thanksgiving. I hope not. I like this scenario written up in the New York Times oh so much more:

Democratic leaders in the Senate are prepared to give Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton a still-undefined leadership role there if she does not become Barack Obama’s secretary of state, Democratic officials close to the situation said Thursday.

The discussions about an enhanced position for Mrs. Clinton are factoring into her deliberations over joining the cabinet, the officials said. Mrs. Clinton, the junior senator from New York, is wrestling with whether to abandon her independence to become the nation’s top diplomat or remain in a chamber where lack of seniority limits her influence.

Mrs. Clinton asked to join the Senate Democratic leadership after the Nov. 4 election, and party leaders began trying to figure out a way to accommodate her without dislodging any of the current leaders, Democratic officials said. The conversations, they added, preceded Mr. Obama’s approach to her about becoming secretary of state and are on the table if she turns the job down.

Although advisers to Mr. Obama have said he has not made a formal offer, most Democrats believe the decision is hers to make, and friends said Thursday that she was wavering.

One friend said Mrs. Clinton decided late Wednesday to say no, reasoning that she would have more freedom in the Senate. By midday Thursday, the friend said, she was “back in the indecisive column again.” By the end of the day, another associate said she could accept by Friday.

She can keep the Senate job and its uinvaluable platform as long as she likes and she can wield so much more influence on array of issues from the Senate. To take the offer to run the State Department is likely a four year stint. Then what?

Her voice is the voice of those without a voice. She is not just the heir to Bobby Kennedy’s Senate seat, she is the heir to Bobby Kennedy. Hers is the wisdom of Daniel Patrick Moynihan, hers is the savvy of Jacob Javits. Please stay in the Senate and do the nation’s business as few others can.

Return to Main

CNN Anchor Rick Sanchez notes that President Bush at the G-20 Summit in Washington this past weekend looked like:

the most unpopular kid in high school that nobody liked.

I wonder what sort of farewell he will get at the APEC Summit in Lima this weekend.

Return to Main

The blockbuster movie Australia starring Nicole Kidman is focusing the world’s attention on a forgotten and abused tribal people, the aborigines of Australia who once numbered over a million but now perhaps number 450,000. From the New York Times:

Aborigines may have numbered as many as a million in 1788 but had dwindled to 93,333 in 1901, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics. They were forced off their land after British settlers began arriving in 1788 and then brutally suppressed. The latest Australian census reports the Aboriginal population as 427,094 among a population of more than 20 million.

Government statistics and reports of private groups show the perilous situation of Aborigines. The Ministerial Council on Education, Employment, Training and Youth Affairs was told in 2000 by a special task force that only 20 percent of Aboriginal students met reading standards, and fewer than 30 percent met writing standards. In some parts of Australia, criminal justice groups say, Aboriginal men are 25 times as likely to go to prison as whites.

Return to Main

Oil prices fell to their lowest level in more than three years, dropping below $50 a barrel on Thursday to close at $49.62 in New York. The price of a barrel of oil has now shed close to a $100 since July when crude reached $145. The New York Times correctly in my view notes the causes of this historic retreat:

The pillars that had pushed up the price of oil and other commodities seem to be crumbling all at once: the American consumer is in full retreat; the Chinese economy is sputtering; financial markets are collapsing; developing countries are trimming their energy subsidies.

The speed of the falloff is a testimony to the world’s dire economic straits. As growth slows in the United States, Japan and Europe, many analysts say they believe global oil demand is headed for its first annual decline in 25 years.

The drop in prices could not have come soon enough for consumers. Gasoline prices are down about half since July, easing some inflationary pressures. Falling energy costs are also providing some breathing room for the economy, although they have also ignited fears of deflation — a broad drop in prices across the economy.

There’s that D-word again. Nasty business that D-word. Deflation. Assets prices were no doubt overvalued but it is hard at this point to correctly gauge the value of all sorts of assets and that in turn in spooking investors. The DJIA fell over 440 points today and is now off 10% in just two days with the financial sector taking a serious beating. Citigroup (NYSE: C) has lost over 50% of its value this week alone, 26% of that coming today. A sale or a breakup now seem all but inevitable. JPMorganChase, a bluechip firm if there ever was one, has 20% of its value this week. Nasty business but deflation is the asset killer. US equities are now at levels not seen in five years. It is as if the last five years never happened. It takes time to create capital, but to destroy it just seconds.

As per the pirce of oil, this a mixed blessing. It will bring relief to commuters and should dampen core CPI. And countries the oil-producing states will see their incomes curtailed and will no doubt have to curtail some of their global amibitions. The current recession and resultant drop in demand will also push out the tail of Hubbert’s Peak. In short, the age of oil gets an extension but we should not commit the folly of not pursuing alternative energy simply because we have cheap oil again. The conditions that brought us oil at $145 a barrel are but an economic recovery away.

Return to Main

The war in the Congo has gone in one form or another for 14 years involving at one time or another the armies of six nations plus a host of other players. Like all wars, natural resources and who controls them so to reap their benefits are the center of the fighting. Lost in all this is the human tragedy.

Associated Press Jerome Delay tells how he was touched by the subjects of one of his pictures in Congo and how he was determined to reunite their family.

This war is so utterly senseless but those largely responsible for this live not in the Congo but in Paris, Brussels, Beijing, Washington DC, London. It is a war by proxy. Our gain, their pain.

Return to Main

France is playing a dangerous game and it’s time that the international community put a stop to the nefarious neo-colonial policy that the Quai d’Orsay plays in Africa. France has supported and continues to support repressive regimes in what Paris considers its sphere of influence.

France is being urged by the Rwandan government to give one of their top officials a quick trial – and the chance to defend herself. Rose Kabuye is facing charges in connection with the killing of a former Rwandan president in 1994. France seeks to obscure its role and its perturbing involvement with Hutu extremists.

Kabuye has now been charged and temporarily released.

Return to Main

Who said progressives can’t win? By Jove, we won a big one today.  In a victory for the left wing of the Democratic Party, Representative Henry Waxman of California has just successfully ousted Representive John Dingell of Michigan from his longtime perch as head of the Energy and Commerce Committee. The downside alas is that we lose Representative Waxman’s careful and diligent probing of government oversteps. Few others have taken on Bush, Cheney et al  with such vigor asking such candid questions.  Since winning back control of the Congress, Representative Waxman has played a lead role in staking out a far more aggressive stance towards the Bush Administration than many other more cautious leaderships of the Democratic Party would take.  Congressmane Waxman used his House Oversight chairmanship to grill the Administration on issues from the Attorney General scandals to Guantanamo to FEMA & the response to Katrina, making him a hero to the progressive left. Such competence should be rewarded.