The Obama-Biden ticket seems to have swung nine states this cycle. I say seems because even now Missouri and North Carolina remain too close to call though McCain leads in Missouri and Obama leads in North Carolina. My prediction of 349 Electoral College votes for Obama turned out to be a bit conservative. 365 seems likely to be the final tally. I got three states wrong: Missouri where I assumed that the Show-Me state’s bellwether status would prevail yet again but as of now it seems that McCain will carry the state by less than 6,000 votes; Indiana which hadn’t voted for a Democrat since 1964 and Obama erased a 20 point Bush margin to win the Hoosier state by under a percentage point and North Carolina which last voted for a Democrat in 1976.

Nine Swinging States

Even though Obama just eked out a victory in Indiana, one has to be impressed that he erased 20.7% Bush margin from 2004. What’s worrisome for the GOP isn’t Indiana which I think is only one-time or two-time flip but rather states like New Mexico, Colorado, Nevada and possibly Virginia. In these states (and Arizona as well) the demographics don’t favour the GOP given some of their tenets. The 15.1% margin in New Mexico, the 12.4% margin in Nevada and the 6.8% margin in Colorado aren’t aberrations. Those a combination of a backlash against GOP economic policies but also a repudiation of the GOP approach to immigration reform. Ironic that John McCain paid the price for Tancredo’s immigration crusade, but that’s politics.

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After the ill-will the rest of the world has held the United States in the wake of the Iraq War and other missteps, it is certainly a welcomed turn of events to see Senator Obama’s election engender such positive good feelings.

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Here’s the exit polling on income. Again I am using CNN as my source.

2008 US Presidential Election Voting Blocs — Income

However, it is the table below where the income gap becomes evident for the GOP. The Republican party seems to have a problem connecting with those who earn $50,000 or less. But that’s nothing new. What is new is the collapse of support for the GOP among those who earn $75,000 or more.

Tuesday’s exit polls revealed the dominance of the economy in voter minds. Mr. McCain actually lost less ground than many expected, compared to Mr. Bush in 2004, among voters earning less than $50,000 a year. However, he was crushed compared to Mr. Bush among voters earning more than $75,000, the very members of the “investor class” who have watched their 401(k)s and IRAs plummet in value.

2008 US Presidential Election Voting Blocs — Income

Now here’s a look at the intersection of race and income.

2008 US Presidential Election Voting Blocs — Income & Race

Then again, the above is also pretty striking.

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This is based off CNN’s exit polling data. It is arranged from the strongest Obama voting bloc, African-America women, to the strongest McCain voting bloc, white men.

2008 US Presidential Election Voting Blocs — Race & Gender

While African-Americans turned out in numbers in-line with my expectations, Hispanics who now account for 14% of the US population (citizens and non-citizens) continued to lag in turnout. In 2008, Hispanics represented only 9% of the electorate. I was also wrong in thinking that Hispanics would break for Senator Obama by a 3:1 margin. In the end, they broke for Obama by a 2:1 margin. That’s still a ten point improvement over Senator Kerry’s score in the 2004 election.

Asian-Americans, while only 2% of the electorate, also went for Obama by a near 2:1 margin. All other racial groups (non-white) also broke for Obama by a near 2:1 margin. All told ethnic minorities accounted for 26% of the US electorate and they went for Obama by a near 4:1 margin overall. 79.2% of the ethnic vote ended up in Obama’s column while 55% of the white vote went for McCain.

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I tend to get emotional when it comes to politics. I cried when Tony Blair won in 1997 and went beyond delirious when Zapatero defeated Aznar in 2003. It doesn’t take much to set off the waterworks really and so it was not surprising to me that I cried when Senator Obama won the Presidency tonight even though I remain skeptical but also cautiously optimistic. In the end, Senator Obama is the more prudent choice and I am glad he won. It is a historic night in the United States and I am glad I was able to witness an African-American win the Presidency. It is good for the country.

I haven’t had a chance to view much less analyze the exit polling but I suspect that I was largely right about the dynamics at play in the race. Senator Obama won the states in the West that I expected in to win plus Florida, Pennsylvania, Ohio and Virginia. I hadn’t expected Senator Obama to win Indiana but that he did.

I’ll write more tomorrow when I have had a chance to peruse the data but I’ll offer some quick observations now.

• Rasmussen Reports’ polls were amazingly accurate.

• Obama becomes the first Democrat to win the White House without winning West Virginia since 1916.

• McCain failed to win Pennsylvania and Ohio. The election was effectively over at that point in the night. Obama also won Florida. No one has won the White House without winning two of these three states since 1960. Obama won Pennsylvania in a landslide (11%). The vote in Ohio was closer (4%) and even closer in Florida (2%).

• Hawaii is the now the bluest state in the nation. 72% of Hawaiians voted for their native son Obama surpassing the 67% and 63% totals in Vermont and Rhode Island.

• Wyoming remains the reddest state in the nation giving McCain 66% of the vote.

• Obama won 60% or more of the vote in ten states: Illinois, Delaware, Maryland, California, New York, Massachusetts, Vermont, Hawaii, Rhode Island and Connecticut. Obama also won 97% of the vote in Washington DC.

• The five point margin in the popular vote is narrower than I was expecting. I expected more of a seven to eight point margin.

• Nevada has picked the winner eight straight times. Not surprising. What was surprising is that Obama won 56% to 42%. It is clear to me that a demographic shift in Nevada is turning the Silver State blue.

• Without looking at the data, my initial sense is that I was right that this election was more a repudiation of the Republican era than a validation of Senator Obama’s brand of politics. Still President Obama will enter office with a chance to remake the country with broad popular support.

• That I did not hear the word “PUMA” once tonight was not lost on me. That movement is I hope dead and buried. It was born of anger and frustration but it devolved into a repugnant espousal of right wing talking points and bizarre conspiracy theories. In the end, they offered nothing more than hate and utter nonsense. Again without looking at the data, I suspect Obama won 85% to 88% of the Democratic base.

• Missouri and North Carolina remain too close to call at this hour.

• I will also venture that Hispanics played a critical role in propelling Obama to victory. Senator Kerry won 56% of the Hispanic vote in 2004. I suspect Obama won 75%.

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