<p><strong>><a href='http://projects.washingtonpost.com/2008/pick-your-president/'>2008 Election Contest: Pick Your President</a></strong> &#8211; Predict the winner of the 2008 presidential election.</p> <p>

The above map assumes everything breaks Senator McCain’s way and he wins most of the battlegrounds but fails to carry Florida, New Mexico, Colorado and Nevada as Hispanics vote for Senator Obama by a 3:1 margin as opposed to the 56-44 split that Senator Kerry earned four years. That’s a shift of twenty points and in the Mountain West that shift is reflected in the polling. In Florida, McCain had been making some inroads among Hispanics but most polls put the Hispanic vote in Florida at 55-45 for Obama and I suspect that is enough to Obama over the top in the Electoral College with 280 ECVs. Still, I think the scenario below is even likelier. While some polls show Ohio to be a dead heat, most give Obama the edge and I have to believe that this race will be defined as a referendum on 40 years of failed Republican policies and not a referendum on an inexperienced and enigmatic candidate named Barack Obama.

<p><strong>><a href='http://projects.washingtonpost.com/2008/pick-your-president/'>2008 Election Contest: Pick Your President</a></strong> &#8211; Predict the winner of the 2008 presidential election.</p> <p>

And I still think that there is a slight chance of a landslide that could push states like North Carolina, Georgia and North Dakota into Obama’s column.

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There are seven polls out today for the critical battleground state of Ohio (link to US census demographic data). Four of the seven point to close and tight competitive race in the Buckeye State while three provide a comfortable lead for Senator Obama in-line with yesterday’s Columbus Dispatch poll. Below are the results of these eight polls:

Eight Ohio Polls

Here’s the Rasmussen Reports poll overview which finds the race in Ohio to be dead even:

It’s all even in Ohio.

The final Fox News/Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the state before Election Day shows John McCain and Barack Obama each attracting 49% of the vote. Last week, Obama held a modest lead in the Buckeye State.

Obama leads among those who have already voted while McCain is projected to pick up more votes from those who show up at the polls on Tuesday.

However, among the six Battleground States polled in the final days of Election 2008, Ohio is one of the two states where McCain gained ground (the other was Florida). This helps explain why the campaigns have had such a strong presence in the state during the closing days of Election 2008. In the last six Fox News/Rasmussen Reports Ohio polls, Obama and McCain have been within two points of each other five times. Neither man has reached the 50% level of support in any of the past six Ohio surveys.

McCain attracts 64% of the vote from Evangelical Christians, 53% from other Protestants, 53% from Catholics, and just 28% from everybody else.

Overall, McCain is now viewed favorably by 57% of Ohio voters, Obama by 50%.

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Polls in Florida (link to US Census demographic data) continue to show a tight, competitive race that fluctuates back and forth. Earlier this week, two polls gave Senator Obama narrow leads of four and five points. Last week, a SUSA poll gave Senator McCain a two point lead, 49% to 47%. Another poll from Rasmussen Reports gave McCain a point lead, 49% to 48%. A Public Policy Polling poll out late last week gave Senator Obama a one point lead, 48% to 47% while a Mason-Dixon poll gave Senator McCain a one point edge, 46% to 45%. Last Thursday, a poll from Quninnipiac pointed a narrow two point lead for Senator Obama, 47% to 45%. Today, there are five polls out for the Sunshine State with four pointing to narrow Obama leads and one giving McCain the edge. All margins are within the margin of error. In Florida, it’s a dead heat.

Five Florida Polls

I am just going to break out the overviews from Rasmussen Reports and Quinnipiac but I’ll comment on some trends from the internals from four of the five polls thereafter. First the executive summary from Rasmussen Reports:

Florida’s neck-and-neck down to the wire in the last Fox News/Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of voters in the state prior to Election Day.

John McCain leads Barack Obama by a statistically insignificant single percentage point, 50% to 49%. One percent of voters are still undecided.

In the three previous weeks, the lead has changed each time. Just one week ago, Obama was ahead by four points. The week before that it was McCain ahead by one. But this is the first time McCain has made it into the 50s since the middle of September.

Fifty-five percent (55%) of those who have already voted cast their ballots for Obama, 44% for McCain. Nationwide, Rasmussen Reports polling suggests as many as 37% of voters may cast their ballot before tomorrow.

Florida has been carried by the Republican candidates in eight of the last 10 presidential elections, including in 2000 when it took a month to determine that George W. Bush was the winner.

Like the other five battleground states that Fox News/Rasmussen Reports releases final numbers on today – Colorado, Missouri, North Carolina, Ohio and Virginia, Florida went for Bush in 2004. McCain probably needs all six states to win the White House.

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The latest couple of polls for North Carolina (link is to US Census demographic data) have pointed to a dead heat. Today’s polls are no different, three show a narrow one point lead for Senator McCain and one gives Senator Obama a one point edge.

Four North Carolina Polls

I am just going to cover the Rasmussen Reports, the PPP and the Survey USA and compare their internals and underlying trends. Let’s start with the Rasmussen Reports poll:

John McCain holds the narrowest of leads in North Carolina in the final Fox News/Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the state before Election Day.

McCain leads Barack Obama by a statistically insignificant one-point in North Carolina, 50% to 49%. One percent (1%) are undecided. This is only the fourth time McCain has hit the 50% mark all year.

Four days ago, McCain was down by two points. A week ago, he was ahead by just one. On October 12, it was a tie. It’s been that kind of race in North Carolina where McCain had led for months until Wall Street’s high-profile woes in mid-September began hurting the Republican’s numbers nationwide.

Five percent (5%) of North Carolina voters say they still may change their minds before voting tomorrow. Right now that group includes five percent (5%) of McCain voters and four percent (4%) of Obama voters.

Obama has a 57% to 43% lead among those who have already voted.

Fifteen percent (15%) of North Carolina Democrats are supporting McCain, while just seven percent (7%) of Republicans are backing Obama. The Republican also has taken a nine-point lead among unaffiliated voters after trailing among that group last week.

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Three separate polls in Missouri (link is to US Census demographic data) all reach the same conclusion, it’s a dead heat in the Show Me State.

Three Missouri Polls

I am just going to cover the Rasmussen Reports and the Survey USA and compare their internals and underlying trends. First, here’s the poll report from Rasmussen Reports:

Barack Obama and John McCain are now tied at 49% in Missouri, according to the latest Fox News/Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the state.

Last week’s Fox/Rasmussen poll found Missouri to be a one-point race in favor of Obama. Neither candidate has reached 50% level of support in the state in the last three surveys.

Ninety-two percent (92%) of voters in Missouri say they are certain of their vote at this time, while 8% say they still might change their minds.

McCain has pulled ahead among unaffiliated voters this week, 50% to 45%. Last week, the race was essentially tied among those voters. His lead also bounced among men, from one percentage point a week ago to seven in the latest poll. Obama still holds a 53% to 45% among women in Missouri.

McCain leads 52% to 46% among white voters in Missouri, while Obama leads 82% to 15% among non-white voters.

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Executive Summary: Time to update the favorability ratio. This is the tenth and final weekly installment. Senator McCain had hit a new low on October 26th at 1.02 in the favorability ratio meaning that he is viewed slightly more favorable than unfavorable (at 1, you’re even) but has since then see a mostly upward trend to finish at 1.18. Senator Obama, however, spent the week treading water. For the past week his favorability ratio ranged from a low of 1.23 on October 31 to a high of 1.30 where he finishes. At the close, Obama enjoys 12 basis point lead over Senator McCain in the ratio.

The Lemos Favorability Ratio
One of the tools that we use on Wall Street to measure movement is by expressing data as a ratio and then tracking the movement of the basis points. A basis point is a unit that is equal to 1/100th of 1%, and is used to denote the change in any financial instrument. The basis point is commonly used for calculating changes in interest rates, equity indexes and the yield of a fixed-income security. The relationship between percentage changes and basis points can be summarized as follows: 1% change = 100 basis points, and 0.01% = 1 basis point. Tracking any movement is possible and movements can be very clearly delineated. Right at the time of the national conventions, I decided to track both Senator Obama’s Favorable versus Unfavorable ratings as well as Senator McCain’s Favorable versus Unfavorable ratings. I take the the favorable rating and divide by the unfavorable rating to get a ratio which I have named the Lemos Favorability Ratio.

I am using Rasmussen Reports Daily Tracking Poll as my raw data. Rasmussen Reports is putting out a daily tracking poll with the national favorability versus unfavorability percentages. Their data extends back to June 4, 2008 and I have created a weekly Excel spreadsheet tracking the data. Here’s that data broken out by candidate and then a side-by-side comparison of the Lemos Favorability ratio is below the fold.

McCain Favourable versus Unfavourable Ratings Nationwide

Takeaway
In terms of the ratio, you want a higher number. The higher the number the greater the spread between your favorable and unfavorable ratings. McCain enjoyed his highest number to date two months ago, 1.58 in the favorability ratio but has seen an erosion of 50 basis point erosion over this period as his favorable rating declined by seven points and his unfavorable rating rose by the same amount. For the period covered dating back to August 26th, McCain’s average favorable rating was 54.5%, his average unfavorable rating was 44.0% and his average favorability ratio was 1.24. In short at the close of the campaign, McCain is below his average.

Obama Favourable versus Unfavourable Ratings Nationwide

Takeaway
Again in terms of the ratio, you want a higher number. The higher the number the greater the spread between your favorable and unfavorable ratings. As of today, Obama now stands at 1.30 in the index, 12 basis points higher than McCain. Obama’s favourable ratings have come down off their peak on October 7th when he had a 1.45 favorability ratio. Since then he has shedded 15 basis points as his favorable rating decline two points and his unfavorable rating climbed three points. But Senator Obama is finishing the campaign at his averages for the period covered. Obama’s average favorable rating is 55.6%, his average unfavorable rating is 42.8% and his average favorability ratio is 1.30. Obama is viewed pretty much as he ever was. (more…)

Here are eight articles from both the US and international media about the US Presidential race. Highlights of each article provided with a link to the full article. This is the penultimate edition, the 52nd edition so far.

The Change We Need
By Senator Barack Obama in the Wall Street Journal.

This is a defining moment in our history. We face the worst economic crisis since the Great Depression — 760,000 workers have lost their jobs this year. Businesses and families can’t get credit. Home values are falling, and pensions are disappearing. Wages are lower than they’ve been in a decade, at a time when the costs of health care and college have never been higher.

At a moment like this, we can’t afford four more years of spending increases, poorly designed tax cuts, or the complete lack of regulatory oversight that even former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan now believes was a mistake. America needs a new direction. That’s why I’m running for president of the United States.

Tomorrow, you can give this country the change we need.

What We’re Fighting For
By Senator John McCain in the Wall Street Journal.

The presidential election occurs at a pivotal moment. Our nation is fighting two wars abroad, suffers from the greatest global financial crisis since the Great Depression, and is facing a painful recession. I believe in the greatness of America. I believe in our capacity to prosper, and to be safer and remain a beacon of light on the global stage. But we cannot spend the next four years as we have spent much of the last eight: waiting for our luck to change. We have to act immediately. We have to fight for it.

The institutions that we counted on — Wall Street banks, our elected leaders in Washington — failed us. We must reverse the corruption and arrogance that have overtaken these institutions, and we must place our trust in the hands of those who have never let us down, especially the American family and small businesses.

We need to grow our small businesses, not tax them. I will fight the Democrats’ plans to redistribute the fruit of America’s labor and turn our economy into a full-fledged disaster. I will cut taxes on families, seniors, savers and businesses. We need to double the child deduction, cut the capital gains tax, and keep jobs in America with a lower business tax.

I will make government finally live on a budget and enforce that discipline by the power of veto. I won’t spend nearly a trillion dollars more of your money. I will impose a short-term spending freeze and rid the government of waste, duplication and fraud. And I will chart a different course than the administration and Barack Obama and not spend your money just to bail out Wall Street bankers and brokers. I have a plan to protect the value of homes and get them rising again by refinancing mortgages so your neighbor won’t default and further drag down the value of your house.

Leads in Battleground States Strikingly Slim
By Karen E. Crummy in the Denver Post.

Republican John McCain continues to trail Democrat Barack Obama in five of eight battleground states that the Arizona senator likely must hold on to to win the presidency, according to new polls.

However, the divide separating the candidates is narrow, and there are still a significant number of voters in these states — anywhere from 4 percent to 9 percent — who are undecided.

McCain leads Obama in North Carolina, Ohio and Missouri, while Obama is ahead of McCain in Colorado, Florida, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Virginia.

All but Pennsylvania are states President Bush won twice. With Obama having shored up most, if not all, of the states Democrat John Kerry captured four years ago, McCain faces a narrow pathway to the presidency with little room for missteps.

“This doesn’t paint a pretty picture for McCain,” said Brad Coker of Mason-Dixon Polling & Research Inc., who conducted the surveys. “He’s fighting for a half-dozen states that have been reliably Republican.”

But Coker added a caveat: Nearly all the states have a higher than usual number of undecided voters, and anywhere from 81 percent to 96 percent of them are white.

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