Though I haven’t gone back and looked and actually counted at the number of state poll posts that I have written up, my guess would be somewhere in the 225 to 250 range since August. But for Hawaii and the District of Columbia, I have written up at least one for each state. There were 18 for Ohio alone and over ten apiece for Pennsylvania, Virginia, Colorado, Florida and North Carolina. And I probably looked at another 200 polls that I didn’t write up as posts. My spreadsheets are filled with numbers and data that lead me to conclude a comfortable Obama win on Tuesday. Trouble is there is much I don’t know and that naturally makes one cautious.

In my career as a Wall Street equity analyst where my job was to predict the behaviour of stocks, I learned to fear the unknown. What am I missing is the question I would ask myself before making a call or changing one of my stock ratings. Even if I couldn’t answer the question, I would at least to provide hedges and probabilities to variation from my predictive course of action.

I tend to believe the polls not so much for their top line, that is Obama X% and McCain Y%, but rather for the trends that can be discerned underneath in the internals. Demographics is political destiny and it is a political hard truth that people vote in blocs. Hence the term voting bloc. The reason that I have paid attention to all these states polls is that in my view the state polls matter more because due to the infinite wisdom of James Madison in the United States one can win the Presidency without winning the popular vote. And if Senator McCain does manage to win on Tuesday, I am convinced that he won’t win the popular vote.

The state polls do have one risk compared to the national polls. The state polls generally have a smaller sample size and thus a larger margin of error and the sample breakout varies greatly by state. Getting those right is of the utmost importance. Survey USA’s polls frankly worry me, they may have overpolled Democrats in some cases. Still my measure of comparison has been to use the respected state-specific pollsters such the Field Poll in California, Siena in New York, the Ohio News Consortium in Ohio, the Cronkite Poll in Arizona among others. These polls are effectively my control. Comparison across polls can point to deficiencies in a poll. And of course all polls have confidence levels, generally 95%. So 5 times out of a 100, a poll is simply wrong.

So what I am missing? Well to answer that question, I’ll point to the UK General Election of 1992 when the Conservatives led by the then bland Prime Minister John Major defeated the energetic Neil Kinnock and the British Labour Party. The polls all had predicted a Labour win. The British electorate of 1992 was especially volatile and those supporting the Tories were reticent in telling pollsters their intentions. The electoral outcome left pollsters wondering where they had gone wrong and added a new term to the political lexicon, a “shy Tory.”

Neil Kinnock was not the only surprise loser at the last general election. The other was the polling industry. Never before had so much egg landed on its collective face. The final polls, published on election day and conducted over the two previous days, showed the Conservative and Labour parties level. NOP and MORI put Labour ahead, ICM declared a dead heat and Gallup put the Conservatives ahead by a mere half per cent; the average of the four was a Labour lead of 0.9 per cent. Everything pointed to a hung parliament and a coalition government. In the event the Conservatives won with an overall majority of 21 seats, 7.6 per cent ahead of Labour in the popular vote. The polls were out by over 8 points, having underestimated the actual Conservative vote by 4 per cent and overestimated the actual Labour vote by 4 per cent.

So what went wrong? (more…)

Polls in the Commonwealth of Virginia seem to be once again tightening after Senator Obama had opened up a ten point lead last week. On October 27th, Rasmussen Reports noted a shift back towards Senator McCain finding making gains among white men and undecided voters. Earlier today a Survey USA poll put the race in the Old Dominion at a four point Obama lead, this Mason-Dixon poll commissioned and published by the Richmond Times-Dispatch points to a three point margin for Senator Obama, 47% to 44% with 9% as yet undecided.

The presidential contest in Virginia is heading toward a photo finish.

The final Richmond Times-Dispatch Poll of the campaign shows Sen. Barack Obama at 47 percent and Sen. John McCain at 44 percent. Nine percent are undecided — an unusually large slice of the electorate. The profile of undecided voters suggests that some are potentially opposed to Obama.

Because Obama’s advantage over McCain is within the poll’s margin of error — plus or minus 4 percentage points — the contest in Virginia can be considered about even.

The battle for Virginia’s 13 electoral votes is raging in the countdown hours to the election — a dramatic contrast with the state’s long history as a Republican stronghold.

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In the latest and second in as many days Rasmussen Reports poll for Pennsylvania (link is US Census demographic data), Senator Obama’s lead remains in the mid single digits range. Yesterday, Obama led by four, today his lead is six. Obama is favoured by a 52% to 46% margin suggesting no major movement in the last 24 hours.

John McCain has closed the gap in Pennsylvania over the past few weeks, but still finds himself trailing Barack Obama by six points on the final weekend of Election 2008.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of voters in the state shows Obama with 52% of the vote while McCain picks up 46%. That’s little changed from polling conducted on Thursday night and earlier in the week. However, it does reflect a significantly tighter race compared to Obama’s 13-point advantage earlier in the month.

Nationally, Obama continues to hold a modest but steady lead in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll and in the Electoral College projections.

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In Utah, my good friend Norm Jensen of One Good Move has been wondering how close Senator Obama might come in the Beehive State. Today’s Deseret News poll does find Obama gaining and likely to surpass Kerry’s tally from 2004 but still fall far short from making the race competitive. Senator McCain leads 57% to 32%.

Demographics remains political destiny in the United States and Utah isn’t changing demographically as fast as its neighbors in Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico and Arizona.

Demographic Trends in the Mountain West

Senator Obama’s fortunes in the Mountain West are riding the crest of a surging Hispanic population that is supporting the Democratic ticket nationwide by at least a 3:1 margin. In Utah, there aren’t enough Hispanics to make significant inroads to change the political destiny of the state. At least, not yet.

Utah is still as red as ever when it comes to presidential politics, but a new Deseret News/KSL-TV poll shows Republican John McCain’s numbers slipping slightly while Democrat Barack Obama’s are climbing.

Fifty-seven percent of the registered voters polled said if the election were held today, they’d vote for McCain. That’s down from the 62 percent who said they backed him in September.

Obama, though, saw his support in Utah increase from 24 percent last month to 32 percent. A total of 1,205 registered voters were surveyed Oct. 24-30 by Dan Jones & Associates for the poll, which has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.9 percent.

“It’s been a long time since a Democrat’s done that well,” pollster Dan Jones said. He said some Utahns may still resent McCain for beating their choice for president, Mitt Romney, the former leader of the 2002 Winter Olympics in Salt Lake City and a Mormon.

Not only did McCain win the GOP nomination, he passed Romney over for the No. 2 spot on the ticket in favor of Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin. Palin initially boosted McCain in national polls but has become increasingly unpopular nationwide, and, Jones said, in Utah.

But McCain’s Utah-based Western states regional coordinator, Tim Bridgewater, said the numbers are due to the campaign’s focus on battleground states. Even the Utah campaign is directing all of its resources toward voters in Nevada, Colorado and New Mexico.

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This is the eighteenth poll of the critical battleground state of Ohio (link to US census demographic data) that I have covered. Before we dig a little deeper, a word of caution about this poll — the Columbus Dispatch’s mail-in response methodology in conducting polling has historically made the poll one of the least reliable polls in Ohio. Nonetheless, this new from the Columbus Disptach is in-line with the general trend line of recent polling in the Buckeye State though I’ll note that a Mason-Dixon poll also out today for Ohio has Senator McCain up two points (I don’t subscribe to Mason-Dixon Polling & Research and thus the poll is published in a newspaper I can’t get at any additional underlying data).

The Columbus Dispatch poll, however, does seem to represent a tightening of the race in Ohio. Earlier this week, Quinnipiac’s poll gave Senator Obama a nine point edge. In this new poll, Obama leads by six points, 52% to 46%. Some highlights:

• Obama leads fourteen points with early voters and he leads by two points with voters who intend to vote on Election Day.

• Among voters who were already registered, Obama leads by four points. Among voters who registered for the first time this year, Obama leads by a whopping 46 points! First time voters make up 10% of the Ohio electorate.

• Although the poll shows 22% of Hillary Clinton primary voters voting for McCain, the poll shows that Democratic voters are supporting Obama at the same rate as Republicans supporting McCain. In Ohio, there does seem to be a PUMA factor but Obama overcomes it with a stronger than average support among Republicans and Independents. Obama leads by ten points with Independents.

• Obama leads with all education groups except college graduates where McCain has four point advantage. McCain also has slight leads with voters 45-64 with Obama dominating younger voters and with small leads or tied with McCain with other older voter demographics.

• Obama dominates throughout northern Ohio around Cleveland and in central Ohio in Columbus-Dayton-Akron corridor, but is not doing well in southeastern Ohio where McCain is doing as well there as he’s doing in the traditionally GOP territory of southwestern Ohio around Cincinnati.

• The leader in the last Columbus Dispatch poll has won Ohio in every election since William McKinley though in 2004, the Columbus Dispatch poll couldn’t pick a winner. It called the race a dead heat which was accurate. Bush would win Ohio by just 2.4%.

After an unprecedented campaign that seemed to break a record for breaking records, Barack Obama stands on the threshold of history — if his poll numbers hold up.

The final Dispatch Poll shows the Illinois Democrat with a 6-point lead in Ohio, virtually identical to the 7-point advantage he held a month ago. The survey is one of many in key states across America that indicate Obama is headed toward a win Tuesday that might not be close, although Republican John McCain is furiously trying to mount one more comeback and prove the pollsters wrong.

Ohioans also appear poised to elect Democrat Richard Cordray as attorney general, defeat yet another attempt to bring casino gambling to the state, and uphold tighter regulations on payday lending.

The winner of the last Dispatch Poll before a presidential election has carried the state every time in modern Ohio history, although the final survey was a dead heat four years ago between Sen. John Kerry and President Bush, who won by 2.1 percentage points.

If Obama’s lead of 52 percent to 46 percent in the new poll holds, he would become the first Democrat to win more than 50 percent of the Ohio vote since Lyndon B. Johnson did in 1964.

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The US Presidential race in Colorado over the past three weeks has trended to show a mid-single digit lead for Senator Obama. Four weeks ago, Obama opened up a seven point lead and since then the Obama campaign has failed to break the race wide open. Three weeks, Obama led by six points and at the end of the last week, Obama still led by five points. Today’s poll from Mason-Dixon Polling and Research commissioned and published by the Denver Post still shows the race in the Mile High State to be a five point margin for Obama. Senator Obama leads 49% to 44% for Senator McCain. Four percent remain as yet undecided. Thus unless voters change their minds, it is unlikely that McCain will carry Colorado. This is especially the case since Colorado more than any other state votes early and by mail. The race in Colorado is thus already in the books.

Democrat Barack Obama has solidified his base and picked up a majority of unaffiliated voters in Colorado, giving him a 5 percentage point lead over Republican John McCain, according to a new Denver Post poll.

With less than 72 hours remaining in the presidential campaign, the results — on top of other statewide polls showing McCain trailing Obama — indicate that the Arizona senator faces substantial challenges in winning the state.

Obama leads McCain 49 percent to 44 percent. Colorado unaffiliated voters, the critical voting bloc making up more than one-third of the state electorate, are backing Obama 57 percent to 32 percent. Four percent of those polled, however, were still undecided.

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A new Mason-Dixon poll for Nevada commissioned and published today by the Las Vegas Review Journal shows the race in the Silver State to be tight and fiercely competitive. Senator Obama leads 47% to 43% with 8% as yet undecided. Polls in Nevada have been remarkably consistent with a narrow four to five point lead for Obama now for about six weeks. McCain’s last lead came on September 11th.

As they battle for Nevada’s five electoral votes, Democratic presidential nominee Barack Obama is beating Republican John McCain, but a surprisingly large proportion of the state’s voters remained undecided as an especially intense race comes down to the wire, according to a new Review-Journal poll.

Obama had the support of 47 percent of likely voters and a 4-point lead over McCain, the choice of 43 percent, the poll, conducted last week by Washington, D.C.-based Mason-Dixon Polling & Research Inc., found.

Eight percent of likely voters said they were still undecided. In other words, nearly one in 10 of those who are almost certain to cast ballots by Election Day still couldn’t say which candidate would get their vote.

Another 2 percent of those surveyed chose another candidate.

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Polls in the Commonwealth of Virginia seem to be once again tightening after Senator Obama had opened up a ten point lead last week. On October 27th, Rasmussen Reports noted a shift back towards Senator McCain finding making gains among white men and undecided voters. Today’s Survey USA (SUSA) poll confirms these findings. A month ago, McCain led by nine points among whites, now he leads by 17 points among whites in the Old Dominion. The difference is even more pronounced among white men in Virginia, McCain now leads by 22 points up from 12 a month ago. McCain is also winning the undecided vote in Virginia by an approximate 3:2 margin though just 2% remain undecided. Two percent are opting for third party candidates with Bob Barr showing some strength. Barr, the Libertarian candidate, may play the spoiler. There is not much of a PUMA factor in the Old Dominion with 90% of Democrats opting for Senator Obama, about two points higher than the national average. Overall, McCain leads 50% to 46%.

Virginia whites veer back toward John McCain in the campaign’s final 72 hours, helping the Republican to close to within 4 points of Democrat Barack Obama, according to research conducted by SurveyUSA for WDBJ-TV Roanoke, WJLA-TV Washington DC, WTVR-TV Richmond, and WJHL-TV Tri-Cities. Obama, in interviews through Saturday night 11/01/08, leads 50% to 46%. Compared to an identical SurveyUSA VA poll 1 week ago, McCain is up 3, Obama is down 2. Among voters age 35 to 49, McCain leads today for the first time in 7 weeks. Immediately after the GOP convention, McCain led by 22 points among white Virginians. That narrowed to a 9-point McCain lead when the stock market fell. Now, at the wire, McCain is back up to a 17 point advantage among whites. In the Shenandoah, McCain moves ahead of Obama. In the DC suburbs, McCain slices into Obama’s lead. Virginia men continued to be more affected by events than Virginia women. 800 adults interviewed 10/30/08 through 11/01/08. Of them, 748 were registered to vote. Of them, 672 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote on or before election day.

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The last few polls in New Mexico (link is to US Census demographic data) pointed to at least a ten point win for Senator Obama in the Land of Enchantment. Today’s poll from Survey USA (SUSA) poll gives Senator Obama a 52% to 45% lead Senator McCain with 2% opting for third parties and 2% as yet undecided. McCain is making modest gains by winning undecided voters by about a 3:2 margin but there aren’t enough undecided voters left to make substantial inroads into Obama’s lead. For McCain to win New Mexico, approximately 4% of the voters would have to change their mind ann switch if the SUSA poll is correct and if the Rasmussen Reports poll is correct that number is closer to 6%. Possible but unlikely.

72 hours till votes are counted in New Mexico, Democrat Barack Obama defeats Republican John McCain, to capture the state’s 5 electoral votes, and Democrat Tom Udall defeats Republican Steve Pearce to capture the US Senate seat vacated by Republican Peter Domenici, according to SurveyUSA’s final pre-election tracking poll conducted for KOB-TV. In four SurveyUSA polls since mid-September, Obama has received 52%, McCain has received 44% or 45%. Of New Mexicans who tell SurveyUSA they have already voted, Obama leads big. Among those who have not yet voted, but who promise to, Obama leads small. The relative size of those two groups will determine Obama’s winning margin. In the contest for United States Senate, Democrat Tom Udall defeats Republican Steve Pearce 56% to 42%, the closest Pearce has been to Udall in 4 tracking polls, and 4 points tighter than the race was mid-October. In Bernalillo County, Udall’s once 24-point advance is now 13, as Pearce breaks 40% for the first time. SurveyUSA interviewed 800 New Mexico adults 10/29/08 through 10/31/08. Of them, 721 were registered to vote; of them, 664 were determined by SurveyUSA to have already voted or to be likely to vote on or before Election Day.

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A Rasmussen Reports poll out today for the state of Maine (link to US Census demographic data) gives Senator Obama a 13 point lead over Senator McCain, 56% to 43%. Maine is one of two states that awards its Electoral College votes by Congressional district. Maine has two Congressional districts and thus a split of Maine’s four Electoral College votes is possible. In fact, Senator McCain was making a push in the Second Congressional District that covers the rural northern and interior part of the state (basically, the First Congressional is the area around Portland).

In the closing days of Election 2008, Barack Obama enjoys a double digit lead over John McCain in Maine.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the state finds Obama with 56% of the vote and McCain with 43%. A month ago, Obama was up by five.

The Democratic candidate is now viewed favorably by 63% of voters in Maine while earning negative reviews from 36%.

McCain’s numbers are 52% favorable and 45% unfavorable.

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