Archive for October 31st, 2008
Hurricane Barack — North Dakota Blue

<p><strong>><a href='http://projects.washingtonpost.com/2008/pick-your-president/'>2008 Election Contest: Pick Your President</a></strong> &#8211; Predict the winner of the 2008 presidential election.</p> <p>

I may change my mind on North Carolina if I see other polls or other evidence that seems to suggest a McCain win in the Tar Heel State but for now this is how I see the Electoral College vote shaking out on Tuesday night. Indiana is another of my uncertainties. The last poll I saw gave McCain a slight advantage but it’s clear that the race in the Hoosier State is a dead heat right now.

North Dakota last voted for a Democrat in the LBJ landslide of 1964 and has in the past one hundred years only gone Democratic thrice: 1964, 1936 and 1932. All were Democratic landslides. My thinking, based on my reading of the available data, is that on Tuesday we are likely to see the first Democratic landslide since 1964 when I was three.

The above represents a Category Three Electoral Hurricane with 367 ECVs for Obama versus 171 ECVs for McCain. While the race seems fluid and dynamic on some levels, Senator Obama has built sufficiently large leads in enough battleground states that I don’t foresee Senator McCain overcoming them even if the undecided vote breaks 3:2 in his favour. For McCain to win requires winning larger numbers of Democrats (PUMAs or otherwise), Hispanics, white males without a college degree, independents, and seniors. He is either not winning sufficient numbers of these or is outright losing them. Based on these demographics, I foresee a clean Obama win on Tuesday.

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New NRSC Ad — Fright Night

The Republican National Committee has released this ad on behalf of several GOP candidates in the fight of their lives to retain their Senate seats. Clever but I hope every last Republican Senatorial candidate goes down to defeat. I remember 1980 and watching Frank Church’s concession speech and George McGovern’s concession speech. Nothing more I enjoy more than hearing Libby Dole’s retirement speech followed by Ted Stevens’ retirement speech and then Mitch McConnell’s retirement speech.

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John Podhoretz’s Case for a McCain Upset

John Podhoretz, a respected neo-conservative, has laid out ten reasons why Senator McCain might pull an upset on Tuesday in Commentary magazine, the journal of the neo-conservative movement. I’ve broken them out below and offer my thoughts in between each of his points.

1) One poll has undecided voters at 14 percent on the last weekend, which means most of them probably really aren’t undecided, that they are either going to stay home or vote preponderantly for McCain and pull McCain across the finish line.

I’m not quite sure which national poll has a 14% undecided component, most have at best an 8% to 9% undecided component and a few go as low as 6%. Traditionally, 10% remain undecided in the closing stages of the race and I suspect that that is case right now though I would argue that some of Senator Obama’s support remains tepid and not firm. I call this the Obama Effect because it’s not a Bradley Effect. Racial politics in the US have come along way since 1988 and while there are pockets that will never vote for an African-American, these are isolated and mostly in states that Senator Obama has little chance of carrying anyway. By an Obama Effect, I mean that every time Obama threatens to run away with the race (even in the primaries), there is a pull back. There remains a level of discomfort and unease surrounding Obama. In some ways, he and his brand of politics remain an enigma.

To Mr. Podhoretz’s point on undecided voters, however, they do seem to be breaking in Senator McCain’s direction by 3:2 margin at the moment but that’s a historically large gap. I would expect it to narrow to under or about ten points. One would have to go back to the 1980 Election to find a decisive break of that magnitude in the closing days of a race.

2) Most pollsters are claiming the electorate this year is six to nine points more Democratic than it is Republican. That would be an unprecedented shift from four years ago, when the electorate was evenly divided, 37-37, Republican and Democratic, and a huge shift from two years ago, when it was 37-33 Democratic. A shift of this size didn’t even happen after Watergate.

Rasmussen’s break out is 38% Democratic versus 34% Republican and the pollster upon which I have relied the most. The argument can be made (and the data supports) that this election will see a record number of first time voters and a record number of lapsed voters returning to participation. First-time voters and lapsed voters (those who haven’t voted in awhile) according to an NBC/Wall Street Journal are voting in record numbers in the early voting states. Obama enjoys a more than 2-to-1 advantage over McCain among first-time (18-25 year olds) and lapsed voters, 69%-27%. That the young adore Senator Obama is well known but he’s also quite the hit among the cynical or the just plain indifferent. The largest movement from last month was among such lapsed voters; 74% of them now say they favor Senator Obama, a 21-percentage-point gain. My sense is that some polls don’t account for these voters.

The post-Watergate shift in the nation’s political identification that Mr. Podhoretz argues also fails to take into account the post Civil Rights shift in the electoral map of the United States. The GOP has had a built-in advantage in the Electoral College with a virtual lock since 1968 by winning the rural South and the rural West decisively. The American electoral system overweights the smaller states and the GOP has benefited from this. But both the South and the West are changing demographically to the the advantage of the Democrats and the detriment of the GOP. Senator Obama is poised to reap the benefit of a few of these changes. New Mexico, Colorado, Nevada, Iowa, New Hampshire and Virginia seem “blue” for the foreseeable future. (more…)

Rasmussen Reports New Hampshire Poll — Obama By Seven But SUSA Gives Obama Eleven

After seeing the race tighten over the past ten days in New Hampshire (link is to US Census demographic data), the latest Rasmussen Reports poll gives Senator Obama a comfortable seven point lead over Senator McCain. Obama leads 51% to 44%. Obama is winning 88% of the Democratic vote suggesting a dearth of PUMAs in the Granite State plus taking 57% of the independent vote.

Barack Obama has now stretched his lead over John McCain in New Hampshire to seven points, 51% to 44%, in the latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the state. One percent (1%) support a third-party candidate, and three percent (3%) remain undecided.

A week ago Obama had a four-point lead in the Granite State after leading by 10 at the beginning of the month.

Obama has a 14-point lead among unaffiliated voters going into the final days of the campaign. He has a 19-point lead among female voters but trails by three among men.

The Democrat leads by three points among married voters and by 17 among those who are not married.

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Rasmussen Reports Georgia Poll — Still McCain By Five

Over the past seven weeks in Georgia (link is to US Census demographic data), Senator McCain’s lead over Senator Obama has narrowed from low double digits to mid single digits reflecting a trend towards seen in many states across the nation. On October 13th, a SUSA poll gave the first indication of potential trouble for McCain in Georgia when it found that his lead had slipped to just eight points. Last week, a Rasmussen Reports poll put McCain’s lead at five points. Today’s follow-up poll from Rasmussen Reports shows McCain maintaining that five point margin, 52% to 47%.

John McCain leads Barack Obama by five percentage points in Georgia for the second straight poll. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the state has McCain ahead 52% to 47%.

Support for both candidates is up one point from a poll conducted last week. Prior to that time, McCain held solid leads over the Democrat since the start of the campaign season. Though McCain’s lead has weakened in the state this month, this is still the fifth straight poll the Republican has received at least 50% support.

Voters in Georgia continue to trust McCain more than Obama on the economy, 52% to 45%. However, unaffiliated voters trust the Democrat slightly more by a 47% to 45% margin. McCain also holds a solid advantage on national security issues.

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US Campaign Reader

Here are eight articles from both the US and international media about the US Presidential race. Highlights of each article provided with a link to the full article.

Undecideds Unlikely ‘Life Raft’ for McCain
By David Paul Kuhn writing for Politico.

The pool of undecided voters remains as large as one in 10, but John McCain can hardly rely on them to overtake Barack Obama. According to past election results, those voters who decided in the last week of a campaign are unlikely to break decisively for either candidate and dramatically alter Tuesday’s race.

In the past eight presidential contests, voters who made up their minds during the last week of the campaign never went for either ticket by large margins of 3-2 or 2-1, which potentially could tip the scales.

“There is likely no hidden life raft in the undecided vote for John McCain,” said Andy Kohut, director of the Pew Research Center.

Pew recently conducted an internal analysis of its polls and concluded that undecided voters were likely to split about equally between McCain and Obama on Election Day, meaning the group is more evenly split between the two candidates than the electorate overall, Kohut said. In the coming days, Pew, like the Gallup poll, will finalize its best estimate for how undecided voters will cast their ballots.

It’s Time
The Economist endorses Senator Barack Obama.

For all the shortcomings of the campaign, both John McCain and Barack Obama offer hope of national redemption. Now America has to choose between them. The Economist does not have a vote, but if it did, it would cast it for Mr Obama. We do so wholeheartedly: the Democratic candidate has clearly shown that he offers the better chance of restoring America’s self-confidence. But we acknowledge it is a gamble. Given Mr Obama’s inexperience, the lack of clarity about some of his beliefs and the prospect of a stridently Democratic Congress, voting for him is a risk. Yet it is one America should take, given the steep road ahead.

Obama’s Prospects in Missouri May Hang on Economy, and Race
By Michael Finnegan in the Los Angeles Times.

Whether Obama or Republican rival John McCain carries Missouri depends in no small part on the nearly 250,000 voters of St. Charles County, a fast-growing working-class area. It would be tough for any Democrat to win in this culturally conservative county, where many voters oppose abortion rights and gay marriage. However, the troubled economy and Obama’s huge campaign operation have put the entire state in play.

The nominee is making two trips to Missouri in the campaign’s final week. He has 44 offices in the state, which President Bush won handily in 2004, compared with McCain’s 16. As for unpaid volunteers in Missouri, Obama has thousands.

Steven S. Smith, a professor of political science at Washington University in St. Louis, said Obama’s campaign was the most elaborate any presidential candidate had ever mounted in Missouri. “The sheer number of campaign volunteers going door to door — get-out-the-vote, voter-registration efforts — has been beyond belief,” he said.

Obama also is spending three times as much as McCain on television ads in the state.

Missouri’s economic distress also has enhanced Obama’s prospects. In St. Charles, a county of 344,000 near the convergence of the Missouri and Mississippi rivers, rising home foreclosures attest to the tough times. So do the 10,000 new empty lots on the county’s exurban frontier: Developers leveled them to build houses but cast aside construction plans in the absence of buyers.

Still, race remains a potent force in the White House contest here, even as Obama’s top advisors argue the contrary.

“The truly undecided are not undecided because of race,” campaign manager David Plouffe said. “They’re undecided because they haven’t decided who’s best on taxes, healthcare and other issues.”

(more…)

Never But Never Underestimate the Tenacity of a Colombian

Tito Muñoz, better known as Tito the Builder, has emerged as one of the few bright spots in the McCain-Palin campaign. Who knows if they win might Tito be tapped for HUD Secretary?

I actually felt sorry for Alan Colmes. Score for one for Tito. Never but never underestimate the tenacity of a Colombian, Alan.

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