It’s four days before the US Presidential Election and I am writing up a post on polls in Montana showing the race there as competitive. This alone should tell you something about the coming Obama Tsunami on Tuesday. But if you’ve been reading the daily US Campaign Reader as diligently as you should you might have noitced that I slipped in a story about the Republican National Committee making an ad buy in Montana. Now you know why. Yesterday, I included Montana in my list of battleground which now includes such GOP stalwarts as North Dakota, Indiana, North Carolina, Virginia and Arizona. Montana last voted for a Democrat in the LBJ landslide of 1964. The same hold true for North Dakota, Indiana and Virginia. North Carolina did vote for Jimmy Carter in 1976 but has been GOP ever since. Arizona did go for Clinton in 1996 but otherwise the previous time Arizona voted for a Democratic would have been for Truman in 1948. These are not states that tend to go to Democratic in Presidential elections. Senator Obama is better cartographer than I have given him credit for heretofore.

Today’s poll from Rasmussen Reports in Montana gives Senator McCain a modest four point advantage over Senator Obama. McCain leads 50% to 46%.

The race for Montana’s three Electoral College votes is a Toss-Up.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of the state shows John McCain with 50% of the vote while Barack Obama picks up support from 46%. However, the presence of Ron Paul on the ballot adds an additional problem for the Republican hopeful. Six percent (6%) of McCain voters might vote for a third-party candidate while Obama faces no such threat.

Overall, two percent of the state’s voters are committed to voting for a third party candidate while two percent remain undecided.

If the election is perceived as being very close, most of those who currently lean in McCain’s direction would be likely to vote for the Republican candidate. However, the more it seems like Obama is going to win, the more likely it is that some of these voters will decide to file a protest vote.

At the beginning of October, McCain had an eight-point lead in Montana. In September, he was up by eleven. Noticing the trend, groups affiliated with the Republican National Committee have started advertising in the state. Earlier, that step was considered unnecessary.

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In 2004, George W. Bush won the Hoosier State with 59.6% of the vote to Senator Kerry’s 39.0%. Indiana (link is to US Census demograghic data) hasn’t voted for a Democrat since the 1964 LBJ landslide. Come Tuesday you’ll know fairly quickly what sort of night it will be since Indiana along with Kentucky are generally the first states to report. The polls in these states close at 6:00 PM EST. If Indiana isn’t called quickly for McCain, it’s going to be a long night dreary night for the GOP and jubliant one for Democrats. Senator McCain shouldn’t have any problems in the Bluegrass State, he leads by 12 points in the latest poll from Rasmussen Reports. It’s a different story across the Ohio River in Indiana where today’s poll also from Rasmussen Reports gives Senator McCain a three point edge over Senator Obama, 49% to 46%. This is actually a reversal from a week ago when Obama lead by four points.

New polling on the presidential race puts Indiana in the toss-up category less than a week before Election Day.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the state finds John McCain slipping below the 50% level of support and clinging to a three-point lead over Barack Obama. McCain now attracts support from 49% of voters and Obama is supported by 46%.

Earlier in the month, McCain had a seven-point lead in the Hoosier State.

Although Indiana has been one of the most reliably Republican states in the nation, it has clearly been a target for the Obama campaign this year. Parts of northwestern Indiana are effectively suburbs of Chicago, Obama’s home base. During the Indiana Democratic Primary, strong turnout in this region almost enabled Obama to pull off an upset victory over Hillary Clinton. It is possible that a strong turnout in that region of the state could do the same again in the general election.

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The latest couple of polls for North Carolina (link is to US Census demographic data) have pointed to a dead heat. Today’s poll from Rasmussen Reports is no different — the race in the Tar Heel State remains too close to call just four days out. The poll out on Monday gave Senator McCain a one point edge; today’s poll gives Senator Obama a two point edge, 50% to 48%.

North Carolina was supposed to be safely Republican again this year, but someone forgot to tell the voters there.

Barack Obama is back out front by two points in the Tar Heel State after trailing by one in a survey released on Monday. Obama is now ahead of John McCain 50% to 48%, according to the latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the state. One percent (1%) support some other candidate, and one percent (1%) are undecided.

A week ago, McCain led by two points. On October 19, Obama was ahead by three.
This is only the third time Obama has made it to or exceeded 50% all year, and he’s done it twice this month. McCain also has been in this territory only three times in this year’s polling, last week for the first time since mid-September.

No Democratic presidential candidate has carried North Carolina since Jimmy Carter in 1976. Maintaining that Republican lock on the state is essential to McCain’s bid for the White House.

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Shame on you Libby Dole, shame on you. I’ll be setting aside a bottle of Veuve Clicquot Ponsardin for Tuesday just to pop when you lose your bid for re-election. This atheist can’t wait to send your delusional self packing from the United States Senate. Whatever Ms. Hagan’s beliefs, you have no right injecting such a smear into our political discourse. For a growing number of Americans, freedom of religion means freedom from religion.

I am delighted to report that Kay Hagan leads Elizabeth Dole by six points in the race for the US Senate Seat from North Carolina. Now I think I’ll send Ms. Hagan a contribution.

From The Hill:

Democratic challenger Kay Hagan has filed a defamation lawsuit against Sen. Elizabeth Dole (R-N.C.) for questioning Hagan’s faith in what is shaping up as the nastiest campaign of this cycle.

Hagan announced the lawsuit after Dole refused to remove the ad, which suggests Hagan is an atheist and has become the subject of tough criticism from several newspaper editorials in North Carolina. Several polls show Dole trailing Hagan, a state senator.

Hagan also released a new television advertisement that began airing Thursday to respond to Dole’s latest attack ad linking Hagan with an atheist group.

In the ad, Hagan, a Presbyterian who taught Sunday school, called Dole’s ad “offensive” and closed with a dig that suggests Dole broke one of the Ten Commandments.

“Elizabeth Dole’s attacks on my Christian faith are offensive,” Hagan says, adding her campaign is about jobs and the economy instead of “bearing false witness against fellow Christians.”

The Ninth Commandment prohibits bearing false witness against a neighbor.

Well Kay Hagan, you’re in good company, Thomas Jefferson too was accused of being an atheist.

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This is the seventeenth poll of the critical battleground state of Ohio (link to US census demographic data) that I have covered. The last few polls in the Buckeye State have reported conflicting trends. Three polls including this new poll from Quinnipiac give Senator Obama a comfortable lead however the Rasmussen Reports out this past Monday gave Obama only a four edge. Nonetheless, the news isn’t good for the McCain campaign in that no Republican has ever won the White House without winning Ohio.

In Ohio, Obama leads 51 – 42 percent, compared to 52 – 38 percent a week ago.

Obama leads 57 – 31 percent among those who already have voted in Ohio.

Among all Ohio likely voters, the Democrat leads 55 – 36 percent among women. McCain gets 48 percent of men to Obama’s 45 percent. White voters split with 47 percent for McCain and 46 percent for Obama. Black voters back Obama 89 – 1 percent. The Democrat leads 59 – 36 percent among voters 18 to 34 years old, while voters 35 to 54 split with 47 percent for McCain and 46 percent for Obama. Voters over 55 go Democratic 50 – 40 percent.

Independent voters go 50 – 38 percent for the Democrat.

Obama gets a 55 – 34 percent favorability in Ohio, with 51 – 42 percent for McCain.

Palin’s favorability is 41 – 40 percent, while Biden gets a 47 – 28 percent favorability.

For 59 percent of Ohio voters, the economy is the biggest issue.

“The Obama campaign has worried for months about winning Ohio’s white working-class voters, including those who had been with Sen. Hillary Clinton in the primary. Obama’s ability to be competitive with that group is why he is ahead. He’s only losing one in five Clinton voters and is within two points of Sen. McCain among whites without college degrees. That’s a recipe for Obama success,” Brown said.

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A new 30 second spot featuring Florida’s popular (and always tanned) Governor Charlie Crist running now in the Sunshine State.

A 60 second spot. Not worth spit in the ocean.

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Polls in Florida (link to US Census demographic data) continue to show a tight, competitive race that fluctuates back and forth. Earlier this week, two polls gave Senator Obama narrow leads of four and five points. Last week, a SUSA poll gave Senator McCain a two point lead, 49% to 47%. Another poll from Rasmussen Reports gave McCain a point lead, 49% to 48%. A Public Policy Polling poll out late last week gave Senator Obama a one point lead, 48% to 47% while a Mason-Dixon poll gave Senator McCain a one point edge, 46% to 45%. Today, a new poll from Quinnipiac points a narrow two point lead for Senator Obama, 47% to 45%. Effectively, the race in Florida seems to be a dead heat.

In Florida it’s Obama 47 to McCain’s 45 percent, compared to 49 – 44 percent October 23.

Among those who say they already have voted in Florida, Obama leads 58 – 34 percent.

Looking at all Florida likely voters, men go to McCain 49 – 44 percent. Women back Obama 50 – 42 percent. The Republican leads 53 – 40 percent among white voters, 72 – 21 percent among evangelical Christians and 53 – 42 percent among Catholics. The Democrat leads 75 – 20 percent among Jews and 56 – 39 percent among voters 18 – 34 years old. Voters 35 to 54 split 46 – 46 percent, and voters over 55 go 47 percent for McCain and 45 percent for Obama.

Independent voters back Obama 47 – 39 percent.

By a 53 – 37 percent margin, Florida voters have a favorable opinion of Obama, compared to 55 – 38 percent for McCain.

Gov. Sarah Palin, the Republican vice presidential nominee, gets a 44 – 41 percent favorability.

Sen. Joe Biden, the Democratic running mate, gets a 50 – 29 percent favorability.

The economy is the most important election issue, 59 percent of Florida voters say.

“The reason Sen. McCain is doing better in Florida than some other key states is his strength among white voters without college degrees. He leads Sen. Obama by 18 points among that group in Florida, but is neck and neck with him among such voters in Ohio and Pennsylvania,” Brown said.

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The Republican National Committee today released this Internet-only ad attacking the Obama-Biden ticket over their tax plans. The ad is a 75 second spot.

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Puzzle

Thank You #1 — 60 Second Spot

Thank You #2 — 60 Second Spot

Thank You #3 — 30 Second Spot

Thank You Military — 60 Second Spot

Thank You Military — 30 Second Spot

The conservative 527 group, Let Freedom Ring has launched a last minute $5 million ad campaign on behalf of Senator McCain. Eight ads were released but in reality there are really only three ads. The others are variation on a theme varying in the length of the spot or by actors. One ad (“puzzle”) is an attack ad on Senator Obama while the other two thank Senator McCain for his judgment and service.

For more background on Let Freedom Ring, please visit Source Watch.

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Here are ten articles from both the US and international media about the US Presidential race. Highlights of each article provided with a link to the full article.

Why It’s Still a Race
By Howard Fineman in Newsweek.

Here’s all you need to know about Sen. Barack Obama and his campaign. He taped the video portion of his half-hour TV special, which airs across your dial at 8 p.m. Eastern tonight, last week.

Now, a week is a year and a year is a lifetime in presidential campaigns. But it is characteristic of Obama to plan ahead in the heat of the battle. The cool, collected senator has known from the start (nearly two years ago) pretty much what he has wanted to say. He kept his eyes on the prize. The small stuff didn’t distract him.

That is why his campaign and its staff, which I have checked in with twice in the last week here in Chicago, remain relatively calm as they head into the final lap of a national NASCAR race that has not quite turned into the rout that history and other factors would lead you to predict.

By all accounts and by all odds, Obama is fairly comfortably ahead in the Electoral College—which, as Al Gore will tell you, is what matters.

On TV Wednesday night, Obama will give what one aide described to me as a “meaty” discourse on his basic tax and health-care proposals. No high-flown rhetoric, but rather a briefing paper for wary undecided swing voters—most of whom, the campaign thinks, are “soft Republicans” who kind of want to vote for Obama but need reassurance.

And yet, in the meantime, Sen. John McCain has not quite disappeared in the rear-view mirror.

I find that astonishing. And, if you are in the Obama campaign, you have to find that at the very least a teeny bit troubling in these last days.

Accuracy Of Polls a Question In Itself
By Michael Abramowitz in the Washington Post.

Could the polls be wrong?

Sen. John McCain and his allies say that they are. The country, they say, could be headed to a 2008 version of the famous 1948 upset election, with McCain in the role of Harry S. Truman and Sen. Barack Obama as Thomas E. Dewey, lulled into overconfidence by inaccurate polls.

“We believe it is a very close race, and something that is frankly very winnable,” Sarah Simmons, director of strategy for the McCain campaign, said yesterday.

Few analysts outside the McCain campaign appear to share this view. And pollsters this time around will not make the mistake that the Gallup organization made 60 years ago — ending their polling more than a week before the election and missing a last-minute surge in support for Truman. Every day brings dozens of new state and national presidential polls, a trend that is expected to continue up to Election Day.

Still, there appears to be an undercurrent of worry among some polling professionals and academics. One reason is the wide variation in Obama leads: Just yesterday, an array of polls showed the Democrat leading by as little as two points and as much as 15 points. The latest Washington Post-ABC News tracking poll showed the race holding steady, with Obama enjoying a lead of 52 percent to 45 percent among likely voters.

The ‘Dictator’ Label — Might Obama Stifle Dissent?
By Jeff Jacoby in the Boston Globe.

When the National Rifle Association produced a radio ad last month about Obama’s shifting position on gun control, the campaign’s lawyers sent letters to radio stations in Ohio and Pennsylvania, urging them not to run it – and warning of trouble with the Federal Communications Commission if they did. “This advertisement knowingly misleads your viewing audience,” Obama’s general counsel Bob Bauer wrote. “For the sake of both FCC licensing requirements and the public interest, your station should refuse to continue to air this advertisement.”

Similar lawyer letters went out in August when the American Issues Project produced a TV spot exploring Obama’s strong ties to former Weather Underground terrorist Bill Ayers. Station managers were warned that running the anti-Obama ad would be a violation of their legal obligation to serve the “public interest.” And in case that wasn’t menacing enough, the Obama campaign also urged the Justice Department to launch a criminal investigation.

In Missouri, an Obama “truth squad” of prosecutors and other law-enforcement officials vowed to take action against anyone making “character attacks” on the Democratic candidate – a threat, Missouri Governor Matt Blunt later remarked, that had about it the “stench of police state tactics.”

Perhaps these efforts to smother political speech are simply the overly aggressive tactics of a campaign in its adrenaline-fueled sprint to the finish. But what if they are the first warning signs of how an Obama administration would deal with its adversaries?

Well this has been one of my worries about Senator Obama from the day I learned about the Alice Palmer case. His disenfranchisement of his electoral competition by challenging their petition signatures made me an Obama skeptic for life. I simply do not trust him. When in January 2008 Obama used his influence to have three pro-Clinton pundits removed from their duties on CNN, it was enough to firmly place myself in the anti-Obama camp. I frankly see one too many Nixonian qualities in Senator Obama. He is clearly not comfortable with criticism and overreaches when confronted with such.

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