The Central African War has once again turned hot with the Tutsi-led rebel army of Laurent Nkunda advancing rapidly on the eastern Congolese city of Goma near the border with Rwanda. This is a war that at times has involved the armies of at least six African nations and that in one form or another has dragged on for 14 years. Despite a large UN presence in the area maintaining an uneasy truce, the underlying causes of the war have never been addressed nor are they likely to be as long as policy makers in Washington, Paris and London remain fixated on the terrritorial integrity of artificial states that were created in 1885 when Europeans diplomats craved up Africa in Berlin.

A report on the situation in Goma from the UK Guardian:

Congolese rebels closed in on the eastern town of Goma yesterday, causing panic among residents and forcing the evacuation of hundreds of international aid workers and UN staff.

Around 45,000 internal refugees, most of whom had only arrived on foot a day earlier, fled a displaced persons’ camp near Goma as forces loyal to Tutsi warlord Laurent Nkunda battled international peacekeepers and government troops. After UN secretary general, Ban Ki-moon, warned of a humanitarian crisis of “catastrophic dimensions”, the rebels announced last night they were declaring a unilateral ceasefire “to avoid panicking the population of Goma”.

Nkunda’s men have already captured several key towns near Goma in North Kivu province and raised fears of a return to full-scale war in Democratic Republic of Congo. The national army has been routed, and troops were reported to be fleeing Goma yesterday. Tension between Congo and Rwanda, which it accuses of supporting Nkunda, also increased sharply, as they traded accusations yesterday over cross-border artillery attacks. The US said while Rwanda was not directly involved in the fighting, its territory was being used to support rebels.

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The Republican National Committee released this 30 second spot on behalf of the McCain campaign attacking Senator Obama over his inexperience.

The ad will begin airing on Thursday and will run in target markets in Ohio, Indiana, Florida and Virginia over the remainder of the campaign. The RNC Independent Expenditure Unit is in the midst of a $25 million 15 day ad blitz targeting the aforementioned states plus Colorado, Pennsylvania, West Virginia, Montana and North Carolina. I am not sure what the Obama campaign is spending at the month but in early October they were spending $35 million a week on advertising. Safe to say, it’s more than that now.

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It’s been two weeks since we last looked at polls in New Mexico (link is to US Census demographic data), but in truth not much has changed in the Land of Enchantment. The latest poll from Rasmussen Reports still gives Senator Obama a ten point margin, 54% to 44%, over Senator McCain. Two weeks ago, Obama led McCain 55% to 42%, a 13 point margin. While a month ago, Obama led by just five points. McCain held a narrow edge six weeks ago.

Again at first glance, the ten point margin represents a tigthening of the race, and it obviously is, but Obama’s numbers are not declining. His 54% support level now is not statistically different than his 55% support level two weeks ago. Rather as we saw in Minnesota, McCain is making modest gains by winning undecided voters by about a 3:2 margin. In New Mexico and Minnesota, that isn’t sufficient to tip the balance towards McCain. Also of interest in New Mexico is the lack of a PUMA factor. Obama is winning 91% of Democrats, that’s slightly higher than his national average of 88%. And among Hispanics, who make up 40% of the electorate in New Mexico, Obama’s lead is now 22 points. McCain did make some gains among white men and independents but the real move is among undecided voters. This seems to be a metric worth watching.

Barack Obama holds a 10-point lead over John McCain in New Mexico.

Not coincidentally, Obama also holds an 11-point edge on the question of which candidate is trusted more on the economy.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the state shows Obama with 54% of the vote while McCain attracts 44%. That’s little changed from mid-October when the Democratic nominee held a 55% to 42% lead.

Fifty-two percent (52%) say they trust Obama more when it comes to economic issues while 41% trust McCain. The Republican hopeful has a slight edge when it comes to which candidate is trusted more on national security issues.

Men are evenly divided, but women favor Obama by 19 percentage points. Obama is viewed favorably by 57% of voters, down two points from the previous survey. McCain earns positive reviews from 49%, down five.

Nationally, Obama holds a slight lead over McCain in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll and in the Electoral College projections.

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Here are two approaches on the selling of Senator Obama and Senator McCain each from an independent organization. First from People in the Middle for Obama:

Next from the Republican Jewish Coalition on behalf of Senator McCain:

So which is more effective? Testimonials from your neighbors or a glowing documentary citing national leaders? Both ads are Internet-only.

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Polls in Minnesota (link is to US Census demographic data) have now stablized after breaking for Senator Obama the first three weeks of October. Today’s poll from Rasmussen Reports in the land of ten thousand lakes gives Senator Obama a 12 point lead over Senator McCain, 55% to 43%. The results are actually a little narrower than they were last week when Obama enjoyed a 15 point lead but McCain’s gains do not represent any fundamental shift in the race in Minnesota. Obama’s 55% isn’t statistically different than his 56% rating last week. Rather the uptick in McCain’s numbers point to a trend that we are seeing in other states, namely undecided voters are breaking for McCain by about a 2:1 margin. The question that remains to be seen is how many truly undecided voters remain and where.

Minnesota is still solidly in Barack Obama’s column in the latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of voters in the state.

Obama leads John McCain 55% to 43%. One percent (1%) support some other candidate, and another one percent (1%) are undecided.

Last week it was a 15-point spread, with Obama ahead 56% to 41%.

Obama has led in Minnesota in all Rasmussen Reports polling this year. McCain was within four points in August, but then Obama pulled away again, as he has in many parts of the country since Wall Street’s woes began dominating the front pages.

Nationally Obama has maintained a steady lead over McCain all month in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll, but today’s numbers show a slight tightening of the race.

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The Obama campaign released this ad today quoting Senator McCain on his lack of knowledge of economics. But the ad ends with a surprising twist.

“I’m going to be honest: I know a lot less about economics than I do about military and foreign policy issues. I still need to be educated.”

“The issue of economics is not something I’ve understood as well as I should. I’ve got Greenspan’s book.”

“I might have to rely on a Vice President that I select for expertise.”

The ad then ends with a picture of Governor Palin winking. I kid you not.

Campaign ads are always done for reason and generally have internal polling to back up the issue. My sense is that Governor Palin has become a problem for the McCain campaign and the Obama campaign wants to exploit that fact. The ad is a 30 second spot.

Update: This ad is a response to this McCain ad.

Update #2: The Obama campaign is receiving some criticisms over this ad and not just from the McCain campaign.

“I am outraged by the new ad put out by Barack Obama. It is sexist and demeaning to women. These tactics started with Hillary Clinton and continue, growing even more disgusting with Gov. Palin. I was a Hillstar for Hillary and an avid supporter. Trashing two women clearly in a sexist manner in one election is an outrage and must be identified and stopped. There must be consequences. Let female Obama supporters take a good look at this and still believe their candidate supports women’s rights and women’s dignity.” –Shelly Mandell, president of Los Angeles chapter of the National Organization for Women

Now the debate is raging whether this ad was sexist or not. I have a different question — was this ad necessary?

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The McCain campaign released this ad late yesterday hitting Senator Obama over economic differences between the two campaigns. The ad is entitled your choice. It is a 30 second spot and it is running nationally.

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Here are eight articles from both the US and international media about the US Presidential race. Highlights of each article provided with a link to the full article.

McCain Pollster Predicts Massive Turnout
By Mike Allen writing for Politico.

The pollster for Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) predicted Monday that 130 million people – the highest percentage of eligible voters in American history – will turn out in this presidential election.

“Turn-out IS going to go through the roof,” McCain’s pollster, Bill McInturff, says in a strategy memo released to the press. “Last night, 81% of voters described their interest in this election as a 10! Wow.”

McInturff says he thinks traditionally Republican states are “MUCH more competitive than is generally believed by the media,” and says McCain’s salvation will come from “’Wal-Mart women” — women without a college degree, in households making under $60,000 a year.

The case McInturff makes is much more optimistic than anything detected by outside pollsters or analysts.

High turnout of motivated new voters has long been viewed by strategists for Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.) as his key to victory.

But McInturff maintains that the new record will not be disastrous for his candidate because all types of voters will surge, not just young people and African-Americans.

The Pennsylvania Party
By Dennis B. Roddy writing for Slate.

Pennsylvania is more a nation than a state, less a state than a confederation. Political science is wasted on the place because, just when the numbers are in and the formulas calculated, truculent locals do what they want in spite of themselves.

The old recipe worked this way: Philadelphia and western Pennsylvania would vote for whatever Democrat was on the ballot. This vote would be countered by Republican suburbs in four counties bordering Philly and by a rural, Republican “T” that comprised the counties in the state’s center and stretched across its northern tier. This gave undecided voters powers bordering on the occult, and candidates appealed to them with the caution of a sinner creeping up on John the Baptist.

Pennsylvania’s Democrats and Republicans were, at times, indistinguishable from one another. Democrats took care to wave the flag, preferably from the barrel of a hunting rifle pointed at an abortion clinic. Republicans courted labor unions and rarely engaged in the kind of Jesus jingoism practiced by their counterparts in other states.

Hillary Clinton to N.H.: Ignore the Polls
By Hillary Chabot in the Boston Herald.

“New Hampshire’s been right on the brink before. We’ve won, we’ve lost in New Hampshire by a sliver of votes – that’s why I don’t want anyone to look at those polls and feel complacent,” she said.

Clinton asked her supporters to pound the pavement and hit the phone lines for Obama the same way they did for her. Obama is ahead of the GOP’s John McCain by as much as 16 percentage points or as little as 4 points in polls in this battleground state.

“That’s why those of you who supported me, for which I am forever grateful, I am asking you to work as hard for Jeanne (Shaheen) and for the Obama/Biden ticket as you worked for me,” Clinton said to overwhelming applause and shouts of “We love you Hillary.”

Clinton focused on the economic crisis, pointing to Obama’s plan to create jobs across the country, including 9,000 in New Hampshire. She also highlighted a track record of good economic times under Democratic presidents.

Speaking of New Hampshire polls, the latest poll (October 22) from WMUR and the University of New Hampshire gives Senator Obama a 15 point lead over Senator McCain. The overall numbers are 54% to 39%, with 6% undecided. More from the Boston Globe.

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In the first open elections in the Islamic Republic of the Maldives, the opposition led by a former prisoner of conscience, Mohammed Nasheed, has won ousting Asia’s longest-serving President, Maumoon Abdul Gayoom. This was the run-off phase since in the first round no candidate managed to win 50% +1. It’s a stunning development for the small Indian Ocean archipelago best known for its coral atolls and world-class scuba diving and luxury resorts. The country has about 300,000 people total.

From the Times of London:

A former political prisoner known as the Nelson Mandela of the Maldives has ousted Asia’s longest-serving leader in the country’s first democratic elections.

Mohamed “Anni” Nasheed, a 41 year old former political prisoner, beat the incumbent Maumoon Abdul Gayoom, in a run-off of the country’s maiden democratic vote earlier this month. With nearly all the votes counted, the Indian Ocean archipelago nation’s election commission declared that Mr Nasheed had won 54 per cent of the votes to 46 for Mr Gayoom.

Neither man had won an outright victory in the first round of voting three weeks ago, prompting the run-off.

Mr Nasheed, who spent six years in jail, and was described by Amnesty International as a “prisoner of conscience,” was granted political asylum by the UK in 2004. However the following year he returned to the islands to found the Maldivian Democratic Party after Mr Gayoom allowed political parties to be formed for the first time in 2005.

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