First a report from Al Jazeera on the race in North Carolina:

The latest polls for North Carolina (link is to US Census demographic data) show the race in the Tar Heel State to be a dead heat. The Public Policy Polling (PPP) (pdf.) poll shows Senator Obama leading Senator McCain by a point, 49% to 48% while the Rasmussen Reports gives McCain the one point edge, 49% to 48%. These results represent a swing back towards McCain after polls over the past two weeks had begun to show Obama opening up as much as a seven point lead. As we have seen in other states, it’s white men and independents doing most of shifting back and forth. First the Rasmussen Reports poll:

The presidential race in North Carolina remains a dead heat, with John McCain just edging out Barack Obama 49% to 48%, according to the latest Fox News/Rasmussen Reports poll.

Four days ago, McCain held a two-point lead over the Democrat. Last week’s Fox/Rasmussen poll of the state found Obama leading 51% to 48%.

For years, North Carolina had been considered a safely Republican state, as no Democrat has won the state since Jimmy Carter in 1976. Holding North Carolina is critical for McCain to have a chance at winning the election next week.

Just two percent (2%) say they are still undecided.

Obama leads among North Carolina voters who have already cast their ballots, while McCain leads among those who have not. Of those who made their choice but have not yet voted, nine percent (9%) say there is still a chance they could change their minds before Election Day.

(more…)

Polls in Florida (link to US Census demographic data) continue to show a tight, competitive race that fluctuates back and forth. Last week, a SUSA poll gave Senator McCain a two point lead, 49% to 47%. Another poll from Rasmussen Reports gave McCain a point lead, 49% to 48%. A Public Policy Polling poll out late last week gave Senator Obama a one point lead, 48% to 47% while a Mason-Dixon poll gave Senator McCain a one point edge, 46% to 45%. Today we have two new polls for Florida, one from Rasmussen Reports and another from Suffolk University and 7NEWS Miami (WSVN-TV) that point to a modest Obama trend. In the Rasmussen Reports poll, Obama leads 51% to 47% while in the Suffolk/7News-Miami poll Obama leads 49% to 44%. First, the Rasmussen Poll.

After John McCain pulled even in Florida a week ago, Barack Obama is back on top this week.

The latest Fox News/Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the state finds Obama with 51% of the vote while McCain gets support from 47%.

This is the fourth time in five weeks that Obama has held a single digit lead over McCain. Last week was the exception with McCain up by a single point.

McCain is viewed favorably by 57% of the state’s voters, Obama by 55%.

(more…)

The question is name the top three advertisers of 2008. From CNN:

Presidential candidates are sold in much the same way a new product is: with an expensive, flashy, and ubiquitous television campaign.

And according to advertising figures provided by Campaign Media Analysis Group, CNN’s consultant on ad spending, Barack Obama’s campaign has spent more money selling its candidate on television than most major brand name companies do selling their products.

The Illinois senator’s campaign is projected to have spent $250 million on ads in the last four months — a number that is equivalent to $750 million in a full year. Only AT&T, with a yearly advertising budget of about $1.3 billion, and Verizon, which shells out $950 million a year on ads, spends more than the Democratic presidential nominee.

But most major companies spend far less than Obama, including McDonald’s ($588 million), Sprint PCS ($482 million), T-Mobile ($404 million), Target ($388 million), and Wal-Mart ($335 million).

John McCain is projected to have spent about $110 million since the general election began.

“This advertising spending by Obama is big, and not just in terms of presidential politics but in terms of all commercial advertising – he has spent enough to be a mega-brand,” CMAG’s Evan Tracey said.

Obama’s massive advertising budget is also a stark reminder of just how much it costs to finance a modern presidential campaign — and, predicts Tracey, it could just end the era of public financing.

“If Obama wins it is clear that the days of being on public financing are over and anyone thinking of running for president in four years will have to ask themselves one question before jumping in – Can I raise $600 million?” said Tracey.

The system is broken.

Return to Main

This is the sixteenth poll of the critical battleground state of Ohio (link to US census demographic data) that I have covered. The last two polls (Quinnipiac and Big Ten Battleground) seem to suggest that Senator Obama was opening up a sizable lead in the Buckeye State, but today’s poll from Rasmussen Reports seems to suggest that the race remains fluid and competitive with Obama leading by four points, 49% to 45%.

Barack Obama now leads John McCain 49% to 45% in Ohio, according to the newest Fox News/Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the state, taken Sunday night. It’s the widest lead in the race for either candidate since McCain had a four-point advantage five weeks ago.

Last week, McCain was ahead by two points, 49% to 47%. The week before that, it was Obama up by two–his first lead in Ohio since tracking of the race began in February.

For the four weeks prior to the new survey, the two candidates have been within two points of each other or closer, and neither has topped 49% support or fallen below 47%.

Four percent (4%) of Ohio voters are still undecided, and one percent (1%) support Libertarian candidate Bob Barr.

Ten percent (10%) of Obama voters say they still may change their minds before Election Day and 9% of McCain supporters say the same.

(more…)

A new poll from the Rasmussen Reports for Missouri (link is to US Census demographic data) confirms yesterday’s St. Louis Post-Dispatch poll that showed a narrow one point lead for Senator Obama over Senator McCain. Previous recent polls showed the race in the Show Me State trending Obama by a mid single digit margin. Yesterday’s poll by R2000 conducted for the St. Louis Post Dispatch of 800 likely Missouri voters, 48% backed Obama, while 47% favoured McCain. Three percent preferred one of three minor-party candidates, and 2% remained undecided. Today’s Rasmussen Reports poll is no different–Obama leads 48% to 47%. The race is a dead heat.

Missouri’s presidential election is now a one percentage point race in favor of Barack Obama. The latest Fox News/Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of the state finds the Democrat ahead of John McCain 48% to 47%.

The latest numbers represent the closest the race has been since early June. Last week, Obama was leading 49% to 44%. While McCain had been holding fairly consistent leads through out the year, Obama pulled ahead in October following the stock market debacle.

The race is essentially tied among unaffiliated voters in Missouri. Last week, Obama held a fourteen-point lead among those voters. However, last week’s survey was conducted the day after Obama held two massive rallies in the state.

Men favor McCain by a 48% to 47% margin, while women choose Obama 49% to 46%.

White voters choose McCain 52% to 43%, while Obama leads 88% to 9% among all other voters in Missouri.

(more…)

The US Presidential race in Colorado over the past three weeks has trended to show a mid-single digit lead for Senator Obama. Three weeks ago, Obama had opened up a seven point lead and since then the Obama campaign has failed to break the race wide open. Two weeks, Obama led by six points and at the end of the last week, Obama led by five points. Today’s Rasmussen Reports poll gives Senator Obama a four point lead over Senator McCain, 50% to 46% with 1% opting for Independent candidate Ralph Nader.

Barack Obama leads John McCain 50% to 46% in Colorado on the day the Democrat drew huge enthusiastic crowds in Denver and at Colorado State University.

A new Fox News/ Rasmussen Reports survey, taken Sunday night, shows Obama ahead by four points. A week ago the Democrat was up by five, 51% to 46%. Three weeks ago he was ahead by seven.

But Obama has not fallen below 50% all month while McCain has been stuck in the 45%-46% range.

One percent (1%) of Colorado voters are for Independent candidate Ralph Nader, while two percent (2%) remain undecided.

McCain last led the race in mid-September, but as in much of the country, his numbers in the state began falling as Wall Street’s troubles began dominating the front pages. Colorado, with nine Electoral College votes, has been won by the Republican candidates in nine of the last 10 presidential elections and is considered critical to McCain’s bid for the White House.

(more…)

Polls in the Commonwealth of Virginia seem to be once again tightening after Senator Obama had opened up a ten point lead last week. In today’s poll from Rasmussen Reports, Senator McCain has gained three points while Senator Obama has lost three points to make the race in Virginia once again competitive. Obama leads McCain 51% to 47%. McCain’s gains come largely from white men who just can’t seem to make their minds. It’s enough to give us all whiplash.

No Democratic Presidential candidate has won the state of Virginia since Lyndon Johnson in 1964. But, Barack Obama has been ahead of John McCain in six consecutive surveys conducted by Rasmussen Reports.

The latest Fox News/Rasmussen Reports telephone survey shows Obama leading 51% to 47%.

While the size of Obama’s lead has varied from poll-to-poll, it’s worth noting that the Democratic hopeful has been at 50% or higher in six straight polls while McCain’s support has stayed in the 44% to 48% range. As in many other states, the Republican candidate was doing better in Virginia before Lehman Brothers collapsed and the Wall Street problems became visible.

(more…)

The McCain campaign released this ad today. It is a 30 second spot and Internet-only. Is it me or has McCain been reduced to begging?

Return to Main

The longest-serving Republican in the United States Senate, Senator Ted Stevens of Alaska was this afternoon found guilty of an ethics breach for failing to properly report gifts and services performed by friends during the remolding of his Alaskan home. Senator Stevens, 84, has served in the Senate since 1968 and is often referred to as Senator No for his opposition to just about everything but pork for his home state. He is currently facing re-election. The latest polls indicate a tight race against former Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich.

From the New York Times:

Senator Ted Stevens of Alaska, the longest-serving Republican in the Senate’s history and a figure of enormous influence in his state, was found guilty on Monday of violating ethics laws for failing to report gifts and services that he was given by friends.

A federal jury of eight women and four men from the District of Columbia found that the 84-year-old Mr. Stevens, who has represented Alaska in the Senate for more than 40 years, knowingly failed to list on Senate disclosure forms the receipt of several gifts and tens of thousands of dollars worth of remodeling work on his home in Girdwood, Alaska.

The verdict came just eight days before the senator is to face re-election and after more than three weeks of testimony, the highlight of which was Mr. Stevens making the calculated risk of taking the witness stand in his own defense. As the verdict was announced, the senator remained composed and stared at the ceiling while his lawyer, Brendan Sullivan, put his arm around him.

Just before the trial, the senator sounded defiant. “Put this down,” he told reporters. “I am not stepping down. I’m going to run through, and I’m going to win this election.” He did not signal whether the verdict had softened his stance, but he was heard to tell his wife, Catherine, afterward, “It’s not over yet.”

Mr. Stevens has long been tied to the rough-and-tumble history of his home state and wields outsized influence over federal spending. Government prosecutors used evidence and testimony to paint a picture in which several of Mr. Stevens’ wealthy Alaskan friends, keenly aware of his status as the dominant political figure in the state, were eager to shower him with gifts.

(more…)

Executive Summary: Time to update the favorability ratio. This is the ninth weekly installment and what a week it was. Senator McCain hit a new low yesterday at 1.02 in the favorability ratio meaning that he is viewed slightly more favorable than unfavorable (at 1, you’re even). Senator Obama, in the meantime, spent the week rising to just below his previous record high only to see another pullback in the ratio. Last Monday, Obama stood at 1.23 in the ratio and by yesterday had climbed to 1.39 (just six basis points below his previous high of 1.45 on October 7th) but today his unfavorable rating shot up again bring Obama back down to 1.25 in the ratio. Still, Obama enjoys 19 basis point lead over Senator McCain in the ratio.

The Lemos Favorability Ratio
One of the tools that we use on Wall Street to measure movement is by expressing data as a ratio and then tracking the movement of the basis points. A basis point is a unit that is equal to 1/100th of 1%, and is used to denote the change in any financial instrument. The basis point is commonly used for calculating changes in interest rates, equity indexes and the yield of a fixed-income security. The relationship between percentage changes and basis points can be summarized as follows: 1% change = 100 basis points, and 0.01% = 1 basis point. Tracking any movement is possible and movements can be very clearly delineated. Right at the time of the national conventions, I decided to track both Senator Obama’s Favorable versus Unfavorable ratings as well as Senator McCain’s Favorable versus Unfavorable ratings. I take the the favorable rating and divide by the unfavorable rating to get a ratio which I have named the Lemos Favorability Ratio.

I am using Rasmussen Reports Daily Tracking Poll as my raw data. Rasmussen Reports is putting out a daily tracking poll with the national favorability versus unfavorability percentages. Their data extends back to June 4, 2008 and I have created a weekly Excel spreadsheet tracking the data. Here’s that data broken out by candidate and then a side-by-side comparison of the Lemos Favorability ratio is below the fold.

McCain Favourable versus Unfavourable Ratings Nationwide

Takeaway
In terms of the ratio, you want a higher number. The higher the number the greater the spread between your favorable and unfavorable ratings. McCain enjoyed his highest number to date seven weeks ago, 1.58 in the favorability ratio but has seen an erosion of 52 basis point erosion over the past over this period as his favorable rating declined by nine points and his unfavorable rating rose by the ten points. McCain is now at just above his lows in the index at 1.06 with a new low being set just yesterday at 1.02. His previous low was 1.09 back on October 12 & 13. With McCain viewed effectively as favorably as he is unfavorably, it is difficult to foresee how he can win the race.

Obama Favourable versus Unfavourable Ratings Nationwide

Takeaway
Again in terms of the ratio, you want a higher number. The higher the number the greater the spread between your favorable and unfavorable ratings. As of today, Obama now stands at 1.25 in the index, 19 basis points higher than McCain. Obama’s favourable ratings have come down off their peak on October 7th when he had a 1.45 favorability ratio. Since then he has shedded 20 basis points as his favorable rating decline three points and his unfavorable rating climbed four points. (more…)