In the latest Survey USA (SUSA) poll for Pennsylvania (link is US Census demographic data), Senator Obama’s lead has narrowed by three points but he still leads Senator McCain by a landslide margin of 12 points. Obama leads 53% to 41%.
If an election for President of the United States in Pennsylvania were held today, 10/23/08, twelve days until votes are counted, the contest tightens, but Democrat Barack Obama still defeats Republican John McCain 53% to 41%, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted for WCAU-TV Philadelphia, KDKA-TV Pittsburgh, WNEP-TV Scranton, WHTM-TV Harrisburg, and WJAC-TV Johnstown. Compared to a SurveyUSA poll 9 days ago, McCain is up 1, Obama is down 2. There is movement to McCain among white voters, where McCain had been down 7, today is down 3.
The Republican National Committee (RNC) released this ad today questioning Senator Obama’s experience and readiness to be Commander in Chief. The ad, a 30 second spot, is running nationally. This is probably their best (most likely to have some effect) in quite some time. I still think that the McCain campaign has to present a better case as to why McCain should be elected rather discrediting Senator Obama over past associations. But this ad does speak to qualifications and thus I think effective.
This is the third consecutive poll from Indiana (link is to US Census demograghic data) that points to an Obama lead. Both the Big Ten Battleground poll and the Public Policy Polling (PPP) poll put Indiana as leaning towards Senator Obama. Other polls out today for New Hampshire, Florida and North Carolina showed Senator McCain staging a mini-comeback but the polls out yesterday were clearly trending Obama. The one possibility that might account for the variation is a regional one. The mid-western states, where the economy is likely in recession, seem to be the ones with the more pronounced Obama trends (even so a Rasmussen Reports poll in Iowa gave Obama an eight point lead which represents a slight tightening of the race there). My sense cutting through all the noise and looking at the internals is that in the battleground Mid-West Obama is faring better than say in Florida where the economy is in better shape due to a buoyant Latam trade. Today’s Survey USA (SUSA) poll gives Obama a 50% to 46% lead over McCain. The race remains fluid and dynamic. This does favour Obama as Indiana is a reliably GOP state that last voted for a Democrat in the LBJ landslide of 1964.
If an election for President of the United States in Indiana were held today, 10/23/08, Democrat Barack Obama edges Republican John McCain 49% to 45%, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted for WHAS-TV in Louisville KY. Compared to a SurveyUSA poll 1 month ago, McCain is down 3, Obama is up 4. Today: White voters split; McCain had led by 9. There are few plausible scenarios in which McCain loses Indiana and still wins the White House. The last Democrat to carry Indiana was Lyndon Johnson in 1964, who, nationwide, received 61% of the popular vote and 90% of the electoral vote.
In addition to running for the Vice Presidency on the Democratic ticket with Senator Obama, Senator Biden is defending his Delaware Senate seat which he has held since 1973. Here is an ad that he is running. He faces token opposition from a GOP political pundit and strategist, Christine O’Donnell.
It’s been three weeks since we lasted visited New Hampshire (link is to US Census demographic data) and it’s a beautiful time of year in the Granite State with its autumnal colours in full flourish. Our last visit back on October 3rd saw Senator McCain in a free fall in New Hampshire down ten points, 53% to 43%. Today’s Rasmussen Reports poll points to a tightening race once again though Senator Obama still leads by four points, 50% to 46%. Still for Johnny Mac, it is an encouraging sign.
The presidential race in New Hampshire has grown closer, with Barack Obama now leading John McCain 50% to 46%, according to the latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the state.
At the beginning of the month, the Democrat held a ten point lead over his opponent, which shifted New Hampshire from “toss-up” to “leans Democratic” in the Rasmussen Balance of Power Calculator. In the eight polls prior to October, Obama has held the lead in five, McCain in three.
Voters in New Hampshire are divided on who they trust more on the top issue of the economy, with Obama holding the edge, 46% to 45%. While 43% agree with Obama’s idea that spreading the wealth around would be good for everybody, 44% disagree.
Voters trust McCain more on national security and the War on Terror by a 53% to 43% margin.
Regardless of who they want to win, 46% of voters in New Hampshire think Obama will win the Granite State, while 39% say the winner will be McCain.
The latest Rasmussen Reports poll for North Carolina (link is to US Census demographic data) points to a comeback for Senator McCain. In the Tar Heel State, Senator McCain now leads Senator Obama 50% to 48%. That’s a five point swing from Sunday’s poll where Obama led by three (The PPP poll on Monday had given Obama a seven point lead). The results are still within the margin of error and thus the race remains effectively a dead heat and no doubt fluid and dynamic if not volatile. Still, this poll represents a pulse for a campaign that over the past week seemed on life support.
North Carolina, for years a safely Republican state, has been seesawing up and down between the two presidential candidates in recent weeks. John McCain now leads Barack Obama by two points, 50% to 48%, in the Tar Heel State, according to a new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey.
In a survey released on Monday, Obama was ahead by three, 51% to 48%. Last week, the race was tied.
But this is the first time the Republican has been ahead since the middle of September. Prior to that he had been leading Obama for months.
Just one percent (1%) now say they are undecided, with another one percent (1%) backing an unspecified third-party candidate.
No Democrat has won North Carolina in a presidential election since Jimmy Carter in 1976, and holding the state is critical to any chance McCain has of election.
A plurality of North Carolina voters (48%) in the new poll say McCain is the candidate most likely to carry the state, but 40% expect the Democrat to win North Carolina.
The McCain campaign released this Internet-only ad yesterday. It is a 90 second spot featuring a number of Americans telling their “I’m Joe the Plumber” stories.
The McCain campaign has released this ad seizing on the “rhertorical flourishes” of Senator Joe Biden. The ad is a 30 second spot and running nationwide.
The National Republican Trust PAC is running these anti-Obama ads. The ad debuted on Oct. 21, 2008, and is set to run in Ohio, Florida, Pennsylvania and other swing states.
Each is a 30 second spot. There is no information on SourceWatch about this PAC. The St. Petersburg Times has more on the ads.
