For all the talk of voter fraud that self-described “progressive” blogs have taken up joining forces with the likes of Ann Coulter, Michelle Malkin and Free Republic, it’s odd that none of these “progressive” blogs even broach a larger problem in the United States, voter suppression. The GOP has been refining its techniques for over a generation and they are quite effective. They run from intimidation outside of the polls challenging the credentials of voters in the queue to not having enough polling booths in poorer, largely Democratic precincts thus leading to long waits and people giving up. With some states decided by just a few thousand votes, such tactics can and do have an impact.

The push to enable early voting has largely been a Democratic goal and it’s not by accident that the states were the polls are open latest also tend to be the bluest. Polls close in blue Rhode Island at 9:00 PM. The idea is that everyone can thus vote. In red Indiana and Kentucky, the polls close at 6:00 PM. Somehow, I get the feeling that poll closing time is correlated to redness or blueness. In most countries, elections tend to be on Sundays with good reason. Here in the US, it’s a Tuesday and one wonders the impact on turnout.

It’s to Senator Obama’s credit that he seems to have learn lessons from the bitter defeats of 2004 and 2000 by pushing his supporters to vote early. So far, this seems paying off dividends. Two articles to share.

The Rush Is on to Vote Early
By Amanda Paulson in the Christian Science Monitor.

Barack Obama has been urging his supporters to vote early when possible, and so far it seems to be paying off.

Some polling data indicates Senator Obama has as much as a 20 percent lead over John McCain from early votes. And in early-voting states like North Carolina, Florida, and Georgia, Democrats are coming to the polls in much greater numbers.

The strategy allows Obama to make sure his supporters – who may be discouraged by long lines after work on Election Day – actually cast their ballots, as well as to shore up support at a time when he’s leading in the polls in many states.

“It just makes sense as a campaign strategy because the public climate is very favorable to Obama right now,” says Darrell West, director of Governance Studies at the Brookings Institution. “The more people who decide now, the better off he is. You never know what’s going to change.”

So far, some 5 million people have cast early ballots in 13 states for which statistics are available. Thirty-four states now allow some form of early voting, and analysts expect that about one-third of all votes may be cast by Nov. 4. In some key states, like Colorado, where many people are casting their votes early by mail as well as in person, over 60 percent of ballots may be in before Election Day.

Black Turnout Is Strong in Early Voting in South
By Mike Baker for the Associated Press.

Blacks are already surging to the polls in parts of the South, according to initial figures from states that encourage early voting — a striking though still preliminary sign of how strongly they will turn out nationwide for Barack Obama in his campaign to become the first African-American president.

There have been predictions all year of a record black turnout for Obama. The first actual figures suggest that wasn’t just talk:

• In North Carolina, blacks make up 31 percent of early voters so far, even though they’re just 21 percent of the population and made up only 19 percent of state’s overall 2004 vote.

• Roughly 36 percent of the early voters are black in Georgia, outpacing their 30 percent proportion of the state’s population and their 25 percent share of the 2004 vote.

No one but the voters can be sure how they voted. And John McCain’s campaign officials note that the Obama camp has put much more effort than they have into early voting. But the numbers are still notable.

Democrats are outvoting the GOP by a margin of 2.5-to-1 in North Carolina, where early voting has been under way for a week. That’s roughly double the margin from 2004.

Some seem to forget that the District Attorney firing scandal revolved around voter fraud and suppression.

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Goldman Sachs Group Inc. is cutting about 10 percent of its work force amid the ongoing downturn in the credit and lending markets, a person briefed on the plan said Thursday.

Goldman Sachs will cut about 3,260 jobs. Goldman’s work force, which was at record high levels at the end of the third quarter, will be pared back close to 2006 and 2007 levels. No additional cuts are planned, the person said. This person requested anonymity because the company hadn’t publicly disclosed details of the plan.

The job cuts are a direct result of the current economic environment and significantly lower levels of business activity, the person told the Associated Press.

As a Goldman Sachs alum, I am sadden to hear the news but such is life on Wall Street. Investment banks, if I can still all Goldman that, are notorious for their hiring and firing. Boom and bust. The more worrisome trend is that Wall Street is likely to shed 200,000 jobs in the 2H08.

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Over the past six weeks in Georgia (link is to US Census demographic data), Senator McCain’s lead over Senator Obama has narrowed from low double digits to mid single digits reflecting a trend towards seen in many states across the nation. The last poll from Georgia was October 13th from SUSA and pointed to an eight poll lead for McCain. Today’s Rasmussen Reports poll shows a race that continues to tighten — McCain now leads by five points, 51% to 46%.

The race for Georgia’s Electoral College votes is getting closer.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the state shows that John McCain’s lead over Barack Obama is down to five percentage points, 51% to 46%. In September, McCain led by 11. Earlier in October, that lead had slipped to nine points.

However, while Obama continues to gain ground, this is the fourth straight poll of Georgia voters to find McCain at the 50% level of support or above. In August, McCain led Obama 50% to 43%.

Sixty-eight percent (68%) of voters in the state expect McCain to win Georgia on Election Day.

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Polls in Minnesota (link is to US Census demographic data) have been pointing to a growing margin for Senator Obama. The last Rasmussen Reports poll for Minnesota back on October 08 gave Obama a seven point margin over Senator McCain. A poll by Minneapolis Star-Tribune this past weekend began a noticeable breaking towards Obama. That poll put Obama’s lead at eleven points, 52% to 41%. The Big Ten Battleground poll released earlier today gives Obama a 19 point lead (it is likely an outlier) but today’s poll from the Rasmussen Reports certainly seems to confirm the trend that support for Senator McCain is collapsing throughout the mid-west. This poll gives Obama a 15 point lead, 56% to 41%. The big move is among independents where Obama now has a 12 point advantage. Obama is also winning 92% of Democrats in the land of ten thousand lakes confirming my thesis that the PUMA movement is stronger in the redder states and weaker in the bluer states.

Barack Obama has more than doubled his lead over John McCain in Minnesota. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the state finds the democrat leading 56% to 41%.

Just two weeks ago, Obama held a seven-point lead in the state. The latest poll marks the highest level of support the Democrat has received since tracking of the race began in February.

Obama holds the lead among unaffiliated voters, 54% to 42%. In the last survey, the candidates were nearly tied. The Democrat leads by over twenty percentage points among women and holds a 51% to 43% among men.

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This is the fifthteenth poll of the critical battleground state of Ohio (link to US census demographic data). The race in the Buckeye appears to shifting fast and shifting towards Senator Obama in a dramatic collapse of support for Senator McCain. The Big Ten Battleground Poll, also released this morning pointed to a wide landslide margin for Senator Obama, 53% to 41%. The Quinnipiac University poll also points to a landslide margin for Obama, 52% to 38%. No Republican has ever won the White House without winning Ohio.

Obama leads 71 – 20 percent among those who already have voted in Ohio. Among all Ohio likely voters, the Democrat leads 58 – 33 percent among women and gets 46 percent of men to McCain’s 44 percent. White voters back Obama 47 – 43 percent, as do black voters, 94 – 3 percent. Independent voters go 50 – 37 percent for the Democrat.

Obama gets a 58 – 33 percent favorability in Ohio, with 48 – 42 percent for McCain.

Palin’s favorability is a negative 37 – 41 percent, while Biden gets a 49 – 22 percent favorability.

For 61 percent of Ohio voters, the economy is the biggest issue, and voters trust Obama more than McCain 55 – 36 percent to handle this issue, compared to 50 – 39 percent last time.

Voters trust McCain more, 48 – 46 percent, to handle foreign policy, compared to 53 – 38 percent.

“To overcome Sen. Obama’s lead in Ohio, Sen. McCain would have to get virtually every voter who remains undecided plus almost all of the Obama supporters who said they still might change their minds – a very small percentage possibility,” Brown said.

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The new Big Ten Battleground Poll, released this morning, gives Senator Obama clear landslide margin leads in both Ohio and Pennsylvania, as well as six other key Midwestern states. In short, the midwestern battleground states seem to be headed blue. The Big Ten Battleground Poll is sponsored by a partnership of eight of the Big Ten Universities: the University of Illinois, the University of Iowa, Michigan State University, the University of Michigan, Northwestern University, The Ohio State University, Pennsylvania State University and the University of Wisconsin. The data collection was conducted by LHK Partners Inc., Newtown Square, Pa.

The good news for Senator McCain is that he is closing the gap in Pennsylania. He only trails by eleven points. The bad news for Senator McCain, unless this poll is an outlier, is that he has fallen off a cliff in Ohio and Indiana and throughout the battleground Mid-West. In each state, McCain is trailing by a landslide margin. It is a brutal poll if you’re John McCain and I suspect that these numbers are not far off.

Eight states with 117 Electoral College votes, or 43.3% of the total required to win the White House. Here’s how much of a change of the political landscape that this represents: Indiana hasn’t voted for a Democrat since 1964. Iowa, Ohio and Indiana were carried by President Bush in 2004. Senator Kerry carried Wisconsin by 0.38%. Senator Kerry carried Pennsylvania by 2.5%. Senator Kerry carried Michigan by 3.42%. Senator Kerry carried Minnesota by 3.48%. Only in Illinois was there a landslide margin in 2004. If this poll is correct, we have the making of an Obama Tsunami.

As the race for the White House enters its final days, the Big Ten Battleground Poll shows Barack Obama holds significant leads over John McCain in eight crucial Midwest states.

The individual surveys of between 562 and 586 randomly selected registered voters and those likely to register to vote before the election in each of the states were conducted by phone with live interviewers from Oct. 19-22 and were co-directed by University of Wisconsin-Madison political scientists Charles Franklin and Ken Goldstein with the cooperation of colleagues from participating Big Ten universities. The polls each have a margin of error of 4.2 percentage points. The states included in the poll were Ohio, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Indiana, Wisconsin, Iowa, Illinois and Minnesota, home to the 11 universities in the Big Ten conference.

Those states were key battlegrounds in the 2004 election, and last month the Big Ten Battleground Poll showed a tight race in all of those states but Illinois, which Obama represents in the U.S. Senate. The first poll was taken just as the U.S. financial crisis first intensified and before the massive decline in the stock market, when McCain was enjoying his highest poll numbers of the campaign in the Big Ten and nationally.

“In September, we saw virtually the entire Big Ten as a battleground,” said Franklin, co-developer of Pollster.com. “Now Obama is clearly winning the Big Ten battleground. The dominance of the economy as a top issue for voters is the overwhelming story.”

The new Big Ten poll shows Obama ahead in every Big Ten state, including Indiana, where McCain held a slight edge in September, and Ohio and Pennsylvania, where last month’s poll results showed the two candidates in a dead heat.

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Here are six articles from both the US and international media about the US Presidential race. Highlights of each article provided with a link to the full article.

Obama’s 50-State Strategy Is a Gamble
By Peter Ross Range in Der Spiegel.

Thirteen days from Election Day, we are at a weird moment in the arc of the campaign. Diehard Democrats and Obama supporters like me are suspended between hope, thrill, fear — and resignation. Our young hero could win it all — not just the election, but an absolute landslide. Or he could still lose it all by squandering too much time and money on states that he doesn’t really need to clinch victory with 270 electoral votes.

If, in fact, Obama can pull off a 300-plus victory, he will be the first Democrat since Lyndon Johnson in 1964 to take office with a major mandate. It would make his victory, in the words of Gen. Colin Powell, truly “transformational.” But the undertaking carries high risks. Running a 50-state strategy — instead of one tailored to the winnable states — is a high-risk gamble, unnecessarily show-offy.

McCain Is Faltering Among Hispanic Voters
By Larry Rohter in the New York Times.

In the early days of the presidential campaign, Senator John McCain seemed to be in a good position to win support among Hispanic voters. He had sponsored legislation for comprehensive immigration overhaul in Congress, made a point of speaking warmly about the contributions of immigrants and was popular among Latinos in Arizona, his home state, which borders three battleground states here in the Southwest: New Mexico, Colorado and Nevada.

But less than two weeks before Election Day, those advantages appear to have evaporated. Recent Gallup polls show Mr. McCain running far behind Senator Barack Obama among Hispanic voters nationwide, only 26 percent of whom favor the Republican. The possibility that Mr. McCain can duplicate George W. Bush’s performance among Latinos in 2004, when Republicans won 44 percent of the vote, now seems remote.

Joe-the-Plumber Theme Gives McCain a Boost in Florida
By Beth Reinhard and Marc Caputo in the Miami Herald.

A Mason-Dixon poll released Wednesday found McCain has reversed his slide in Florida and is now ahead of Obama by one percentage point. It’s the third survey since McCain repeatedly invoked ”Joe” in the last presidential debate that shows Obama’s lead in Florida since late September has evaporated.

”There’s a Joe-the-Plumber effect to the degree that McCain finally found some sort of economic that people can relate to — taxes,” said Mason-Dixon pollster Brad Coker, adding that taxes ”are a big, big deal” in a state where residents won’t stand for an income tax and can’t stand high property taxes.

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Here is the Thursday, October 23rd, 2008 edition of what’s making news and interesting reads from around the world. Also please note that off to the left there are two widgets with updates on news from Asia and the world in a separate page: Around Asia & Around the World New Feeds.

Recession Fears Send the British Pound to Five-Year Lows
The pound fell to its lowest level in five years against the dollar yesterday after Bank of England governor Mervyn King’s warning that the economy was entering a recession caused a flight from sterling. At one point the pound fell to just above $1.62, a 19% drop from the $2 a pound would buy as recently as July and the lowest level since late 2003. It had fallen 3% on the day and is now on course for its biggest weekly fall since being ejected from the European exchange rate mechanism in 1992. The pound is 25% lower against the dollar than a year ago and 16% lower against the euro at around 79p. The full story in the UK Guardian.

Israel Governing Coalition Talks at a Standstill
Coalition talks between Kadima and Shas seemed on the verge of breaking down on Wednesday night, after the ultra-Orthodox party rejected prime minister-designate Tzipi Livni’s offer to raise child stipends. More from Haaretz.

Sri Lanka’s Bid to Destroy the Tamil Tigers
There is mounting concern in Sri Lanka that the army’s advance into Kilinochchi town, which has already been slowed down by heavy rains and fierce resistance from the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE), will come up against another brake – India. Kilinochchi town is the administrative capital of the LTTE. Since early this month, the Sri Lankan government has been saying that it is on the brink of capturing this town. Its troops are reported to have breached the town’s major defenses. But the capture of Kilinochchi is taking the army longer than expected. The full story in the Asia Times.

Rice Visits Mexico for a Meeting About Its Drug War
The Bush administration signaled its alarm about Mexico’s vicious drug war by sending the American secretary of state on Wednesday to a two-day meeting on improving cross-border cooperation in the battle against the country’s powerful drug cartels. The Bush administration increasingly sees the violent clashes in Mexico as a threat to American security, and the lawlessness was high on the agenda when Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice arrived on Wednesday in Puerto Vallarta for meetings with her local counterpart, Patricia Espinosa. The Mexicans had sought the high-level visit to press for greater coordination with the United States in their fight against the heavily armed cartels, but the world economic crisis was also discussed. More from the New York Times.

China’s Growth Slows
China’s GDP expanded by an annual rate of just nine percent in the third quarter of 2008, down from 10.1 percent in the previous three months. More from Euro News.

Oil Powerhouse Venezuela Struggles to Keep Lights On
Despite having some of the world’s largest energy reserves, Venezuela is increasingly struggling to maintain basic electrical service, a growing challenge for leftist President Hugo Chavez. The OPEC nation has suffered three nationwide blackouts this year, and chronic power shortages have sparked protests from the western Andean highlands to San Felix, a city of mostly poor industrial workers in the sweltering south. Shoddy electrical service is now one of Venezuelans’ top concerns, according to a recent poll, and may be a factor in elections next month for governors and mayors in which Chavez allies are expected to lose key posts, in part on complaints of poor services. More from Reuters.

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