Polls in Florida (link to US Census demographic data) have tightened and point to very tight and competitive race that could go either way. Late last week, a SUSA poll gave Senator McCain a two point lead, 49% to 47%. A poll on Monday from Rasmussen Reports gave McCain a point lead, 49% to 48%. A Public Policy Polling poll out yesterday gave Senator Obama a one point lead, 48% to 47%. This poll from Mason-Dixon Polling (pdf.) gives Senator McCain a one point edge, 46% to 45%. Two percent are opting for third parties and 7% remain undecided. The race in Florida remains a dead heat and too close to call.
Republican John McCain has moved narrowly ahead of Democrat Barack Obama in Florida. Statewide, 46% of voters currently support McCain, while 45% back Obama, 2% are for other candidates and 7% remain undecided. Obama held a similarly slim 48%-46% lead two weeks ago.
In the key Tampa Bay region, McCain now has a 47%-44% lead, reversing Obama’s 48%-44% advantage from early October. The other regions of the state continue to follow their historical patterns, with Obama holding a wide 58%-32% lead in Southeast Florida and McCain running ahead in North Florida (56%-35%), Central Florida (53%-39%) and Southwest Florida (54%-38%).
Obama continues to run stronger among Democrats, women, those under 35, blacks and those who have never served in the military, while McCain is stronger with men, Republicans, those over 65, whites and military veterans. Obama has a 47%-41% lead among independent voters, while McCain has a 47%-44% among Hispanic & Cuban voters. McCain still has a higher favorable rating with Florida voters than Obama (51%-49%), while Obama’s negatives are a bit higher than McCain’s (37%-33%).
For approximately two centuries the great human divide in terms of wealth was a rural versus urban one generally plus a north (the developed world) versus south (the developing world) one. That divide still largely exists but the looming challenge for humanity in terms of socio-economic development is the rising overwhelming levels of urban blight and a growing social inequality not just between north and south but also within each sphere. In the United States, income distribution now matches what it was in 1928. The rich are far wealthier and the poor far poorer. Even in India, globalisation seems to have run its course and for a time led to a narrowing of the gap between rich and poor but now that trend has reverse itself. The rich are getting richer and the poor, poorer.
All this doesn’t portend well. From the UK Guardian:
Wealth Gap Creating a Social Time Bomb
Growing inequality in US cities could lead to widespread social unrest and increased mortality, says a new United Nations report on the urban environment.
In a survey of 120 major cities New York was found to be the ninth most unequal in the world and Atlanta, New Orleans, Washington, and Miami had similar inequality levels to those of Nairobi, Kenya and Abidjan, Ivory Coast. Many were above an internationally recognised acceptable “alert” line used to warn governments.
“High levels of inequality can lead to negative social, economic and political consequences that have a destabilising effect on societies,” said the report. “[They] create social and political fractures that can develop into social unrest and insecurity.”
According to the annual State of the World’s cities report from UN-Habitat, race is one of the most important factors determining levels of inequality in the US and Canada.
“In western New York state nearly 40% of the black, Hispanic and mixed-race households earned less than $15,000 compared with 15% of white households. The life expectancy of African-Americans in the US is about the same as that of people living in China and some states of India, despite the fact that the US is far richer than the other two countries,” it said.
In Kentucky (link is to US Census demographic data), a new poll from Rasmusseen Reports shows a modest two point narrowing of the race. Senator McCain still leads by eight points, 52% to 44%. Three weeks ago, McCain led by ten. If there is an Obama landslide coming, it’s likely not to include the Bluegrass State.
The presidential race in Kentucky has changed little over the past month. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the state finds John McCain leading Barack Obama 52% to 44%.
Unlike in much of the county, support for McCain is the same in Kentucky as it was in September, but Obama’s support has bounced up two points over the past month. The last two polls in the state found McCain leading by 10 percentage points.
As the campaign wears on, the luster has come off Governor Palin who has failed to demonstrate the necessary competence required for national office. She cannot speak competently on a whole host of issues and it is painful to watch and listen to her interviews. Palin won’t cost McCain the election but she won’t win it for him either.
Unlike Virginia and Minnesota, polls in Florida (link to US Census demographic data) have tightened and point to very tight and competitive race that could go either way. Late last week, a SUSA poll gave Senator McCain a two point lead, 49% to 47%. A poll on Monday from Rasmussen Reports gave McCain a point lead, 49% to 48%. This poll from Public Policy Polling (PPP) (pdf.) gives Senator Obama a one point lead, 48% to 47%. Effectively, the race is a dead heat.
The race for President in Florida is about as close as it can be right now, with Barack Obama leading John McCain just 48-47 in the state. That represents a tightening since three weeks ago, when Obama led 49-46.
Obama has lost some ground with white voters since the last time PPP surveyed Florida, with John McCain increasing his lead with that demographic from 52-41 to 55-39. The Hispanic vote, which has swung back and forth in PPP Florida polls, has also shifted from a 50-46 Obama lead to a 50-46 McCain lead.
“Even as John McCain loses more and more ground in states like North Carolina and Missouri that weren’t all that competitive in 2004, he’s keeping it tight in Florida,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “Of course the reality at this point is that Florida is the least relevant it’s been in a Presidential election in several cycles. If Obama hangs on to his commanding leads in Virginia and Colorado it’s game over, and Florida will mainly help to determine the size of his victory.”
Despite slipping with some groups Obama continues to rack up large margins with his core supporters of African Americans, with whom he has a 91-8 advantage, and voters under 30, where he’s up 59-37. The economy polls as the top issue for 61% of Florida voters, and among those folks Obama has a 57-36 advantage.
Other PPP polls released this week have shown Obama leading in Indiana and North Carolina. PPP surveyed 1,158 likely voters from October 16th to 19th. The survey’s margin of error is +/-2.9%.
The conservative group Let Freedom Ring released this ad today attacking Senator Obama over his ties to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. The ad is to run nationwide. It is a 60 second spot.
Latin Americans are according to a recent Gallup poll largely undecided as to which candidate would be better for Latin America in terms of US policy. 56% of respondents surveyed from Mexico down to Chile and Argentina (the survey covered every country except El Salvador, Bolivia, Brazil, Venezuela, Haiti, Dominican Republica, Panamá, Cuba, Paraguay and Uruguay) were undecided (indeciso). However among those who expressed a preference, Senator Obama fared better than Senator McCain. Obama led 34% to 10%.
McCain fared best in Colombia with 16% support but even in Colombia Obama had his second best showing in the region at 38%. Only in Chile and in Costa Rica did Obama fare better with 43% and 44%support respectively. Colombia was the country where more people stated an opinion one way or the other. Overall, the Gallup survey is quite a switch from the September 21st survey where only 5% were undecided and where Obama gained 50% support and McCain 45%.
