Electoral Scenarios
October 18th, 2008 18:50

I have been thinking about likely electoral outcomes and here are four that I am considering.

Scenario 1 — McCain Wins By Holding GOP 2004 States


McCain wins 31 states

Under this scenario, Senator McCain wins the Electoral College vote by carrying the exact same 31 states that President Bush won in 2004 giving McCain 286 Electoral College votes to Obama’s 252. Though certainly a plausible scenario, this scenario is not supported by current polling data. Obama leads by double digits in Iowa (which never even entered the battleground realm) and New Mexico and by high single digits in Missouri, Colorado and Virginia. Obama’s lead in Nevada and Florida is narrower. Ohio at the moment is a dead heat. Losing Iowa and New Mexico isn’t fatal to McCain’s chances. Losing any of the others is.

Scenario 2 — Obama Wins Based on Current Polling Data


Obama wins 26 states plus DC

Under this scenario which largely reflects current polling data (North Dakota is technically leaning towards Obama but this is the conservative model), Senator Obama wins 26 states plus the District of Columbia giving him 329 Electoral College votes to McCain’s 209. The difference between this scenario is that Missouri, Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada, Virginia and Florida are flipped from McCain to Obama. Without question, this right now seems the most likely scenario.

Scenario 3 — The Case for the Obama Landslide & Why North Dakota Matters


Obama landslide of 30 states plus DC

As a historian, one of the beauties of analyzing US elections is noticing how various states behave through time. This is the case for why that poll by the Fargo Forum that I reported on earlier this week matters. North Dakota is a reliably GOP state but the state does have its quirks. It was once a hotbed of prairie populism and it is a state with some remarkably socialist tendencies (the grain silos are state owned) and North Dakota has broken from the GOP column just three times in the past hundred years — 1932, 1936 and 1964. The margin in those years wasn’t much but it was enough to swing the state Democratic. With polls in North Dakota showing a narrow Obama lead (it’s effectively a dead heat since Obama’s leads are within the margin of errors), the case can be made that we have an Obama landslide in the making.

The map above represents the scenario for the Obama landslide scenario. Obama wins 30 states plus the District of Columbia with a total of 372 Electoral College votes versus 166 for McCain. If the North Dakota polling turns out to be accurate, then all the other states where the race is close are likely to break for Obama. It’s even possible that Obama might add states like Montana, Georgia and Indiana to his column. That would give him another 29 Electoral College votes putting him over the 400 mark. The last to achieve this was George Herbert Walker Bush in 1988 winning 40 states with 411 Electoral College votes. Possible but basically everything would have to go Obama’s way and I’m not sure it will.

Scenario 4 — McCain Keystone Hopes


McCain wins PA and 27 other states

Even though he trails by low double digits in every single Pennsylvania poll, McCain hasn’t ridden off the Keystone State. This scenario affords McCain the ability to lose a few states that Bush carried and still win the Presidency. And the reason that this scenario makes sense is that the demographics in Pennsylvania might be amendable to a McCain push if he can make a sustained and cogent case. Under the Keystone scenario, McCain would win 273 Electoral College votes to Obama’s 265. McCain would carry 28 states. A few trends would also also remain intact:

1– Missouri’s bellwether status of getting it right.

2– Nevada would also be right for the eighth consecutive time.

Nonetheless this is a long shot but that’s McCain’s position right now. A long shot.

Prediction
My prediction is that if McCain fails to carry Pennsylvania on November 4th, he will have lost because I don’t think scenario 1 is probable. Conversely if McCain does win Pennsylvania, he will have likely won the race. Still if I were to put money down on a scenario I’d go with the second scenario though I am tempted to bet the house on the third scenario.

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Posted in US Presidential Election by Charles Lemos
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DandyTiger
October 19th, 2008 08:49

When we adjust the current polling by the DT Polling Adjustment Factor (DTPAF), we get a slight variation on the scenario 2 map. Here we give FL and NV to McCain in scenario 2(DT) and get Obama 286, McCain 252.

DTPAF is made by subtracting 5 points from Obama’s numbers as an adjustment to deal with the inaccuracies in the polling we saw in the dem primaries I believe is still in play. The 5 points is an average taken for all the states, but we actually did see a 10 point discrepancy in many battleground states. This factor can be thought of as simply inaccurate models that we saw in the primaries, but it could also be some sort of “Obama effect”. Perhaps it’s a combination of the two.

Some people have indicated that the DTPAF (or an “Obama effect”) should be more like 10 points, especially in the battleground states. If we change it to 10, DTPAF(10), we get closer to scenario 1. In scenario 1(DT) we the difference with scenario 1 is that McCain also gets WA and MN, for a count of McCain 300 and Obama 238.

Right now my gut tells me that the current race today is scenario 2(DT) using DTPAF(5). But that the race is tightening mostly due to natural cycles. But I can’t ignore the relentless effort by the press in pushing the media darling nor the tremendous advantage of Obama’s money. So though I think the race will tighten to the point of a near toss up, I do give the advantage to Obama.

To your main point Charles, Obama is most definitely electable. And clearly by most any measure the odds on favorite. There are just too many things in his favor. But I also can’t ignore his stunning vulnerabilities. As we see the internals of the race and how it shifts, one thing keeps coming to my mind, people want to like McCain/Palin and people reluctantly like Obama/Biden. I think that’s big. I think that keeps Obama insiders that know their internal polling up at night. I think that is why when McCain gets a little positive (or negative against Obama) blip in the news, some Obama surrogates seem over the top panicked. To them, this race is uncomfortably close. Just my instinct though. I could be wrong and often am.

Charles Lemos
October 19th, 2008 16:30

Oops, I made one mistake which I will correct but Iowa voted for Bush in 2004. Doesn’t really change much since Iowa isn’t even competitive this cycle.

In 2004, Bush won Iowa by 10,000 votes out of 1.5 million cast.

UpstateNY
October 19th, 2008 20:41

DTiger, I agree with much of what you say, however I am not sure what you mean by

“people want to like McCain/Palin and people reluctantly like Obama/Biden”

Charles Lemos
October 19th, 2008 21:44

Though I haven’t reported on it, there’s data to support DT’s thesis. Obama is either loved or hated. Luckily for him, he’s more loved than hated.

If you look at the Rasmussen Favorable Rating Data you will see that the Obama Very Favorable Number is 40% while his Very Unfavorable Number is 30% as of today. Compare that to McCain’s numbers which 23% Very Favorable versus 24% Very Unfavorable. I’ll be updating my Favorability Ratio tomorrow and right now I can tell that the numbers since that mid-week “mini” surge for McCain are on a downward slide for McCain.

Still the polls show the race to be relatively close in some polls but one put out a ten point lead for Obama. Tomorrow, I think that there are least five battleground polls out.

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