$30 Million versus $8 Million

I was wrong. Mea culpa. In terms of ad buys, I had estimated that the Obama campaign would outspend the McCain campaign on the order of 3:1 based on various reports I had seen and noted in my various daily Campaign Readers. I was simply mistaken because according to the New York Times, the differential is more like 4:1. That’s simply stunning. Even more remarkable, the gap is growing. Last Sunday over the nation’s airwaves, the Obama campaign outspent the McCain campaign 6.5:1. Historically speaking, only the McKinley campaign of 1896 has had a wider differential.

Not only is the amount stunning but the breadth of markets is something quite unprecendented. In the era of public financing of Presidential campaigns, campaigns have had to make tough choices as to where to allocate scarce resources as the race progresses. States that are deemed out of reach are often conceded and resouces are concentrated in order to maximize Electoral College votes sometimes in unexpected places. One of the keys to the Bush win in 2000 was running attack ads on Gore’s environmental proposals and his carbon tax ideas in West Virginia. From an August 2000 CNN report:

GOP presidential candidate George W. Bush unveiled a multimillion-dollar ad campaign that will air in 21 battleground states representing 227 of the 270 electoral votes needed to win the presidency.

The ads, highlighting Bush’s education proposals, exceed Bush’s previous biggest sweep by four states, aides said. They take on Gore in some Democratic strongholds like West Virginia, where the Bush campaign thinks the vice president is vulnerable.

Had Gore won West Virginia, Florida would have been irrelevant. Bush’s decision to invest in West Virginia proved the difference. Now the Obama campaign isn’t just spending heavily in the current crop of battleground states (Maine, Ohio, Indiana, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Missouri, Virginia, North Carolina, Florida, Colorado and Nevada), they are expanding their ad buys into Kentucky, West Virginia, Georgia, Mississippi, North Dakota, Montana and Arkansas. They are also continuing to spend in New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Iowa and New Mexico even though Obama enjoys double digit leads in all these states.

The other aspect of the Obama ad campaign that is noteworthy is how focused it has been over the past six weeks. It’s jobs, it’s the economy, it’s health care and it’s McCain equals more of the same. Below are four Obama campaign ads from the last month and a half.

Below the fold more from the New York Times: (more…)

The US Presidential race in Colorado hasn’t changed much since the last poll ten days ago. Then Senator Obama led Senator McCain by six. Now, Obama leads by seven, 52% to 45% according to the latest poll from Rasmussen Reports. The seven point lead places Colorado in the leaning Obama column and it would represent a pick up for the Democrats. That’s pretty much the overall point as well. All the states we are talking about are states that the GOP carried in 2004. There isn’t one state that Senator Kerry carried that is in any danger of flipping to the GOP.

Barack Obama has inched further ahead of John McCain in the battleground state of Colorado where he now leads 52% to 45%, according to a new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey.

Last week Obama led McCain by six points, 51% to 45%. One month earlier, McCain was ahead by two.

Obama is supported by 93% of the state’s Democrats and 10% of Republicans. Eighty-nine percent (89%) of GOP voters and six percent (6%) of Democrats support McCain. Obama leads among unaffiliated voters by 17 points.

McCain has lost ground among men voters, who now support Obama 49% to 47%. The Democrat leads among women by 11 points.

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A new poll for Nevada published today from Rasmussen Reports shows Senator Obama increasing his lead over Senator McCain to five points. The previous poll for Nevada from October 13th had given Obama a more modest two point lead, 47% to 45%. This poll puts Obama outside the margin of error at 50% to 45%.

In Nevada, Barack Obama continues to lead John McCain, the economic rescue plan is wildly unpopular, and voters are evenly divided on whether you can win the White House without criticizing your opponent.

The Democratic candidate now leads by five percentage points, 50% to 45%. At the beginning of October, Obama was ahead by four points, his first lead in the state since July.

Obama is viewed favorably by 53% of the state’s voters, McCain by 52%. Obama’s ratings are unchanged from the previous survey while McCain’s are down two points.

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While most polls in Florida (link to US Census demographic data) prognosticate that Senator Obama has taken control of the race in the Sunshine State, a new poll from Survey USA (SUSA) points to a narrow two point lead for Senator McCain 49% to 47%. Three weeks ago, Senator McCain led by five points. But two weeks ago, the race in Florida turned into a dead heat tied at 47% apiece and over the first week of October, Senator Obama opened up a seven point, 52% to 45%. Over the course of ten days, McCain appeared to be inching back in the race in the nation’s fourth most populous state closing to within three points. Today’s poll suggests a comeback and a dead heat. I tend to trust Rasmussen Reports polls more so I will add the caveat that SUSA’s sample size is smaller and its margin of error +/- 4.3%. My sense is that this poll may be an outlier.

If an election for President of the United States in Florida were held today, 10/17/08, with absentee balloting underway and early voting about to begin, Republican John McCain edges Democrat Barack Obama 49% to 47%, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted for WFLA-TV Tampa, WFOR-TV Miami, WKRG-TV Mobile-Pensacola, and WFTX-TV Cape Coral. The outcome is within the survey’s margin of sampling error. Both candidates have an excellent chance to carry the state.

Compared to an identical SurveyUSA tracking poll 3 weeks ago, almost nothing has changed in the Florida data, at a time when the world has changed profoundly. Then, the Dow Jones was at 11,143. Today: 20% lower. Banks have failed, insurance companies have been nationalized. But smooth sailing on the Florida poll tracking graphs. True: men have swung 9 points to McCain since SurveyUSA’s last poll; women have swung an offsetting 8 points to Obama. But most other demographic groups in Florida are stable. Voters younger than Obama: stable. Voters older than McCain: stable. Whites: stable. Hispanics: stable. Moderates: stable. Independents: stable. More-educated voters: stable. Less-educated voters: stable. Pro-life voters: stable. Pro-choice voters: stable.

There is slight movement to McCain in Southeast Florida, which includes Miami and Fort Lauderdale. There is offsetting movement to Obama in Central Florida, which includes Orlando, and in Southwest Florida, which includes Tampa. Unique to Florida, and unlike other states that SurveyUSA is polling: those in Florida who tell SurveyUSA they have already voted disproportionately back McCain. The sample size is small, so caution is warranted, but unlike SurveyUSA findings in Ohio, New Mexico, Georgia, Iowa, and North Carolina, where early voters disproportionately favor Obama, in Florida, McCain leads by 8 among those who have already voted, and is tied among those who have not yet cast a ballot but who are determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to do so.

In 4 SurveyUSA tracking polls going back to August, Obama has never led in Florida. 14 separate research firms are polling in Florida. The last 10 surveys released by other pollsters all show Barack Obama ahead by 1 to 8 percentage points.

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“It’s entirely consistent with Sen. McCain’s record during his 26 years in Congress where, time and again, he’s opposed Medicare. In fact, Sen. McCain has voted against protecting Medicare 40 times.” — Senator Barack Obama in Roanoke, Virginia on October 17, 2008.

The Obama campaign released this ad today attacking Senator McCain’s health care proposals. Specifically, Obama is charging that McCain wants to cut $882 billion from Medicare over a decade to finance his health care plan and the result would be more costly drugs, diminished services and lower quality care for seniors.

Obama campaign officials said the $882 billion estimate was drawn in part from a study by the Center for American Progress, a public policy organization stocked with prominent Democrats. In response, McCain’s campaign issued a statement saying Obama was “simply lying.” The statement said the Republican planned to trim spending, but said his plans “do not cut a single benefit.”

The ad is a 30 second spot and running nationally. If the economy has been a winning issue for the Obama campaign, so has the debate over health care proposals. Obama has been relentless in attacking McCain’s proposals. In doing so, Obama has succeeded in pulling away a traditionally GOP constituency and drawing essentially tied with McCain among seniors. Still among seniors in Florida a new poll out today from Survey USA show McCain leading Obama among seniors 52% to 44%.

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A second Rasmussen Reports poll in Missouri (link is to US Census demographic data) out this week shows the race in the Show Me State breaking in Senator Obama’s direction. Three weeks ago polls in Missouri were a dead heat with a narrow McCain lead. Last week, the race was still close though the lead had shifted to Obama. This past weekend, a Survey USA poll showed Obama leading McCain by eight points, 51% to 43%. However the Rasmussen Reports poll at the beginning of this week had Obama leading by just three points, 50% to 47%. Today’s poll gives Obama a six point margin 52% to 46%.

Missouri is a critical bellwether state. In the past 100 years, the state has only been wrong once back in 1956.

Barack Obama has expanded his lead over John McCain in Missouri to six percentage points.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the state finds Obama with 52% of the vote while McCain is supported by 46%. Earlier this week, Obama was on top 50% to 47%.

Obama leads among voters who earn less than $60,000 a year while McCain has the advantage among those who earn $60,000 to $100,000 a year. Those with higher incomes are evenly divided.

Overall, Obama is now viewed favorably by 57%, McCain by 56%.

Nationally, with the steady drumbeat of bad economic news, Obama has opened a stable lead over McCain in both the Rasmussen Daily Presidential Tracking Poll and the Electoral College projections.

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Here are six articles from both the US and international media about the US Presidential race. Highlights of each article provided with a link to the full article.

Did Barack “Spread the Wealth” Obama Just Blow the Election?
By James Pethokoukis in US News & World Report.

No. Really. You’re kidding me. Barack Obama actually told that Joe the Plumber guy that he wants to “spread the wealth around.” What, did Obama just get done reading the Wikipedia entry on Huey “Share the Wealth” Long or something? Was he somehow channeling that left-wing populist from the Depression? Talk about playing into the most extreme stereotype of your party, that it is infested with socialists.

A while back I chatted with a University of Chicago professor who was a frequent lunch companion of Obama’s. This professor said that Obama was as close to a full-out Marxist as anyone who has ever run for president of the United States. Now, I tend to quickly dismiss that kind of talk as way over the top. My working assumption is that Obama is firmly within the mainstream of Democratic politics. But if he is as free with that sort of redistributive philosophy in private as he was on the campaign trail this week, I have no doubt that U of C professor really does figure him as a radical. And after last night’s debate, a few more Americans might think that way, too. McCain’s best line: “Now, of all times in America, we need to cut people’s taxes. We need to encourage business, create jobs, not spread the wealth around.”

It’s possible because I only pick losers and the “spread the wealth” comment from Senator Obama made me rethink his candidacy somewhat. Still not voting for him but he may yet have potential. However since Americans fear redistributive tax policies, I am guessing that the comment is going to at the very least cause the race to tighten. Americans overwhelmingly — by 84% to 13% — prefer that the government focus on improving overall economic conditions and the jobs situation in the United States as opposed to taking steps to distribute wealth more evenly among Americans according to a Gallup Poll from earlier this year. So I am part of 13%. Cool. It is my fervent belief that a wide income inequality causes economic dislocation that leads to social unrest. The problem as I see it, and really if BTF has a theme, it is that income inequality is the problem in the United States. Solve that and you solve many others.

McCain Map Strategy Prompts Head-Scratching
By David Paul Kuhn writing for Politico.

According to most polls, Barack Obama holds a double-digit lead in Iowa, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire and Wisconsin, all states that many political strategists and pollsters believe are too far gone at this late date for John McCain to win.

Still, McCain’s campaign soldiers on in those Democratic-leaning states, committing its most precious commodities — time and money — even as the Republican nominee struggles to lock up the red states he likely must sweep to win the presidency.

It’s a head-scratching strategy that is leading even some Republicans to wonder why the McCain campaign hasn’t written off places such as Iowa and Pennsylvania and strategically retreated to ensure victory in more favorable red state terrain — such as Virginia and North Carolina — that it absolutely cannot afford to lose.

On the flip side, the Obama campaign is now pouring ad dollars into North Dakota (one independent poll shows an Obama lead), West Virginia (again one recent poll showed an Obama lead) and Kentucky (the closest I’ve seen is McCain by eight points but it may be play into adjacent Indiana and Ohio markets).

Passive versus Active Voice
From United Press International.

Barack Obama, the Democratic nominee for U.S. president, used the passive voice far more in the last debate than Republican John McCain, an analysis says.

A Texas media analysis company, Global Language Monitor, also found that Obama used the word “I” significantly more often. Obama used it 158 times in the debate, while McCain weighed in at 115 times.

The company said that passive voice can be used to evade responsibility. Obama used it in 6 percent of his sentences, while McCain used it in 3 percent.

Obama’s language averaged at a 9th grade level, while McCain’s was at about a 7th grade level.

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The Homeless in America

Gay Marriage

War Profiteering

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Here is the Friday, October 17th, 2008 edition of what’s making news and interesting reads from around the world. Also please note that off to the left there are two widgets with updates on news from Asia and the world in a separate page: Around Asia & Around the World New Feeds.

World Markets Remain Volatile
Stock market volatility hit an all-time high, as major stock indexes rallied late Thursday despite reports showing contraction in manufacturing. More on the US stock market from Business Week. Asian stocks were mixed Friday a day after Wall Street rebounded with significant gains. This story from The Street.com and from Euro News.

Zimbabwe Talks Remain Deadlocked But On-Going
The third day of talks by Zimbabwe’s main political leaders on allocation of ministries in a proposed inclusive government failed to yield an agreement on Thursday. More from the International Herald Tribune.

UBS and Credit Suisse Receive Cash Injection from Swiss Govt
Switzerland’s top two banks have taken emergency measures to shore up their finances. Credit Suisse is raising new funds from private investors while the Swiss government is to take a 9.3 percent stake in UBS for four billion euros. And in another move to recover investor confidence, UBS will also unload billions of euros worth of toxic assets into a new fund backed by the Swiss central bank. More from Euro News.

Energy Superpower Emerges in the Caspian
Officials in Turkmenistan have announced the discovery of one of the largest natural gas fields ever. More from the Asia Times.

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