Most polls in the Commonwealth of Virginia point to a very tight race but with Senator Obama marginally ahead of Senator McCain. Last week, Obama led by two points. A poll earlier this week from Rasmussen Reports gave Obama a three point margin. Today’s poll from Christopher Newport University in Newport News, Virginia shows the race at 49.2% to 43.2%, in Obama’s favour. This poll has a smaller sample size and a slightly higher margin of error at +/- 4.38% at the 95% confidence level. The poll was also taken from October 11th through 14th and if the national polls seem to indicate a tightening in the race, this poll may give Obama a slightly larger margin than he actually has at the moment.

With just under three weeks to go before Election Day, Senator Barack Obama leads Senator John McCain in Virginia by 6.0% among likely voters, 49.2% to 43.2%. Obama’s lead appears to be driven by voter concerns about the economy. Asked to name the top issue that they would like candidates to address between now and Election Day, just over six in ten likely voters say the economy. No other issue breaks double digits. These findings are from the Christopher Newport University Virginia Poll conducted October 11-14 of 500 likely voters.

When asked which would be the second issue that they would like the candidates to address between now and Election Day, the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan top the list at 20.4%, followed closely by health care at 18.5% and then the economy, gas prices and energy policy, and terrorism. Fewer than 7% want the candidates to address the personal character and integrity of the candidates, suggesting that voters have not responded well to Senator McCain’s efforts to make Senator Obama’s character and integrity an issue in the final weeks of the election.

Nearly 50% of voters think that Joe Biden is the stronger Vice Presidential candidate, compared to just one in three who say Sarah Palin is the stronger Vice Presidential candidate.

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This is the twelfth poll of the critical battleground state of Ohio (link to US census demographic data) and the third consecutive poll to show a tight race once again after two which had shown Senator Obama leading by as many as seven points. It appears that at least in the Buckeye State after the rough patch of the last three weeks that the McCain campaign has stemmed the bleed. In the latest poll from Rasmussen Reports , the battle for Ohio is tied at 49% apiece. Just three days ago, Senator Obama enjoyed a narrow two point lead over Senator McCain, 49% to 47%. The Ohio News Consortium poll out at the end of last week had given McCain a two point lead.

Barack Obama and John McCain are now all tied up at 49% each in the battleground state of Ohio, according to the latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey.

A Fox News/Rasmussen Reports telephone poll conducted a few days earlier showed Obama leading McCain 49% to 47% in Ohio.

But only 53% of Ohio voters are now Very Confident that the votes will be properly counted and the right candidate declared the victor. Another 34% are Somewhat Confident in the outcome.

Forty-five (45%) say people who shouldn’t be allowed to vote are likely to vote on Election Day. Just 28% say it’s more likely that some who are eligible will be denied the chance to vote.

Late Wednesday, Ohio’s attorney general filed an emergency appeal with the U.S. Supreme Court in hopes of blocking a lower court ruling that could prevent thousands of Ohio voters from voting on Election Day.

Numerous lawsuits over voter eligibility are already at play in Ohio, where over 600,000 new voters have registered this year. Republicans question the legitimacy of voters registered by the liberal activist group ACORN, now under investigation in Ohio, Nevada and other states. Democrats say Republicans are just trying to eliminate and discourage voters in states where the party’s candidates are at risk.

Eighty percent (80%) of Ohio voters believe people who want to vote should be required to show a driver’s license prior to casting a ballot.

Nationally, 76% believe a person should be required to show photo identification at the polls before being allowed to vote.

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The McCain campaign today released two new ads, one in English and the other in Spanish. The English ad highliights the undecided but Republican registered Ohio plumber Joe Wurzelbacher and Senator Obama’s statement about spreading the wealth. The ad is a 30 second spot. The ad is run to nationwide.

The second ad, in Spanish, is also a 30 second spot focusing on taxes. Senator McCain trails among Hispanics by about a 4:1 margin nationally. Even in Florida, he trails among Hispanic voters 64% to 34%. If he is to win Florida, McCain must likely get 40% of the Hispanic vote in Florida. My sense is that New Mexico and Colorado are out of reach but given that there does seem to be a shift in the polls towards McCain it is probably wiser to take a wait and see approach.

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I am not sure how many of you read my weekly Favorability Index posts which are published on Mondays and track the favorable versus unfavorable ratings of Senator Obama and Senator McCain since those posts are wonkish and ladden with numbers. But the favorability ratio that I created is I think a good way of predicting who stands who win the Presidential election. I base many of my assumptions off the ratio and the movement in the index. You can read the latest installment in the Post of the Week off to the left.

Senator McCain last had a lead in the index on September 16th though on two other occasions he was tied with Senator Obama. The last tie was on September 23rd. I normally track the ratio daily but I don’t write a post on it. Today, I feel I should at least note that McCain overtook Obama in the index 1.28 to 1.23. What this means is the race is still fluid and dynamic and that perhaps Capt. Howdy’s argument that the race is not over is valid.

I am not going to do a full blown post because that post takes an hour to write but here’s the overall table with the weekly numbers.

McCain vs Obama, The Lemos Favorability Ratio

At 1.28, McCain is at his highest level in the ratio since September 18th. At 1.23, Obama is at his lowest level in the ratio since September 23rd.

Overall, it’s a 26 basis point shift since Monday comprised of 17 basis point gain for McCain and a 7 point decline for Obama. In essence, McCain seems to be staging a comeback. It’s one day of data but if you’re a McCain fan or conversely not a fan of Obama, then this is good news.

Let me say this about my favorability ratio, it’s a damn good leading indicator. My premise is that the higher number in the ratio, the better your chances of winning are. I trust it. At the very least, I expect to see a tightening in the polls over the next several days. My other takeaway is that there remains a lot of ambivalence towards Senator Obama. Many seem to drift back and forth on him.

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The American Political Science Association (APSA) today released the results of nine electoral models conducted by various political scientists. Six out of the nine presidential election forecasts predict an Obama victory with popular vote totals ranging from 50.1% to 58.2%, while two predict a race too close to call and one predicts a narrow McCain victory. You can see the full models and their assumptions at the American Political Science Association.

The forecasts are based on different combinations of statistical and historical data and differ in their complexity and how far in advance their predictions were made. The earliest forecast was made 294 days in advance while the latest was made 60 days before the election; however, all were made before the Wall Street financial crisis of the past few weeks. Together these forecasts use a range of approaches and indicators that are critical to understanding national electoral processes and the dynamics at work in U.S. presidential elections. Brief summaries of each are provided below the fold: (more…)

The conservative group Right Change released three new anti-Obama ads yesterday attacking Senator Obama as a tax and spend liberal. The group plans to spend $1.5 million on cable networks including Fox and CNN.

Right Change self-describes as:

RightChange.com is a nonprofit, nonpartisan organization dedicated to helping Americans see through the haze of politicians’ “spin” to understand the facts about crucial policy choices. Our goal is to make sure that the coming wave of political change in America is the “right” kind of change, in terms of conforming to the facts and common sense.

The group is not nonpartisan. It is tied to Republican interests. Fred Eshelman, a pharmaceutical executive, is the primary backer of Rightchange.com. He served as Senior Vice President for former Glaxo, was recently appointed to the management board of Anton Pharma, and founded his own consulting firm, Pharmaceutical Product Development. He is a max-out donor to McCain, and has contributed more than $200,000 to Republicans since 2002. More from Accountable America.

Just as a reminder, the Obama campaign is spending $3.5 million a day on television ads. So a $1.5 million ad buy is still lost in the Obama advertising tsunami. I have to concede that the Obama campaign will rank as one of the best run and managed campaigns in modern history. It will rank on a par with the other stellar campaign in terms of fundraising from US history, the 1896 Presidential campaign of William McKinley. McKinley’s campaign manager, the wealthy industrialist Mark Hanna, is credited with running the first modern campaign. As chairman of the Republican National Committee, Hanna raised in excess of $3 million and perhaps as much as $7 million for the McKinley campaign. It outspend the William Jennings Bryan campaign by at least 5:1 and perhaps as much 12:1. As a percentage of GDP, this is equivalent to $3 billion to $7 billion today. Obama won’t come close to that figure but he is outspending the McCain campaign and the RNC by about 3:1.

More on the 1896 McKinley campaign beneath the fold. (more…)

Here are six articles from both the US and international media about the US Presidential race. Highlights of each article provided with a link to the full article.

Obama Wins by a Hair (So Says Politico)
By Alexander Burns writing for Politico.

Voters are closely divided over which presidential candidate won the third and final general election presidential debate, according to an exclusive Politico/InsiderAdvantage nationwide survey of undecided debate-watchers.

Forty-nine percent of respondents said that Obama won the debate, compared to 46 who believed his opponent, Sen. John McCain, came out on top. The three-point gap separating the two candidates was equal to the poll’s margin of error.

Five percent said they were unsure which candidate had the better evening.

Perhaps the best news for McCain is the rating he received from independent voters. Among respondents not identified with either major political party, McCain was judged tonight’s winner, 51-42 percent.

Now We Know Joe Six Pack Is A Plumber
By Michael Scherer in Time Magazine.

Best line of the night goes to McCain, a pre-scripted zinger that, for once, McCain delivered without a hitch: “Sen. Obama, I am not President Bush. If you wanted to run against President Bush you should have run four years ago. I will take this country in a new direction.” Obama’s response was also good, explaining how McCain had sided with Bush on the major economic issues of the day. But the response won’t get cable news play. The zinger will.

Ohio Plumber Becomes Focus of Debate
By Philip Elliott for the Associated Press.

Who is Joe the Plumber? He is Joe Wurzelbacher, an Ohio man looking to buy a plumbing business who came to symbolize the notion of “spreading the wealth” in Wednesday night’s third and final presidential debate between Democrat Barack Obama and Republican John McCain.

Earlier this week, when Wurzelbacher got a chance to speak with Obama when the candidate visited Toledo, he told Obama that his tax plan would keep him from buying the business that currently employs him.

I am a spread the wealth kind of guy. I believe quite firmly that income inequality is a pernicious problem for any economy and any society. In this, Senator Obama really caught my attention. However, his character is a significant hurdle for me and his lack of foreign policy experience and his world view keep me up at night. Authoritarianism is on the march in Latin America, Russia and Central Asia. I’m not sure if a President Obama would make it a priority to defend and extend democratic goverance abroad. I am not sure that a President Obama sees Venezuela’s Chávez as a menace and a threat. Still, to hear Obama say “spread the wealth” is music to my ears.

On the hand Mr. Joe Wurzelbacher, the plumber in question, doesn’t seem convinced that we should “spread the wealth.” Obama’s argument at the end is actually the right argument. The idea is provide jobs that pay well enough so more households can afford Mr. Wurzelbacher’s services.

In terms of a political advantage, score one for Senator McCain. It will be interesting to see the next round of polls from states like Ohio, Pennsylvania and Michigan where this message tends to resonate better.

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Here is the Thursday, October 16th, 2008 edition of what’s making news and interesting reads from around the world. Also please note that off to the left there are two widgets with updates on news from Asia and the world in a separate page: Around Asia & Around the World New Feeds.

Britain’s Credit Crunch Leads to a Sharp Rise in Unemployment
The number of people out of work rose at the fastest rate since the recession of the early 1990s in the three months to August, prompting fears that the jobless total will break through the 2 million level by Christmas. In the latest sign of the damage to the real economy caused by the 14-month credit crunch, the Office for National Statistics said the jobless total on the broad Labour Force Survey measure jumped by 164,000 in the three months to August from the previous three months – the biggest rise since June 1991 – to stand at just under 1.8 million. This is the highest level for nearly a decade. The jobless rate leapt to 5.75% from 5.2%, also the largest change since 1991. “These numbers are truly horrendous and much worse than I had feared,” said David Blanchflower, a labour market expert and member of the Bank of England’s monetary policy committee. He told the Guardian his earlier prediction that unemployment would rise to 2 million by Christmas now looked conservative. “Unemployment will be above 2 million by Christmas.” The full story in the UK Guardian.

G8 Summit on World Finance Reform
France, Britain and Germany have won backing from the G8 group of industrialised nations for a world summit to reform the global financial system. The plan was put forward at an emergency European Union summit to discuss the financial crisis. French President Nicolas Sarkozy, whose country currently holds the EU presidency, suggested the reform summit be held in New York, where he says everything began. More from Euro News.

Thailand and Cambodia Open Fire
Fighting erupted between Thai and Cambodian soldiers on Wednesday in a disputed border area surrounding the 11th-century Preah Vihear temple. Both sides claim the other shot first in the latest flare-up in a dispute that broke in July. More from the Asia Times.

World Markets Fall Sharply
Stock markets plunged anew on Wednesday, nearly wiping out the record gains of Monday and sending another wave of wealth destruction washing over American households. The government’s rescue of the banks has been widely embraced, but the frenzied selling, which pushed the Dow Jones industrial average down 733 points, underscored how the economy’s troubles are too broad to be fixed by the bailout of the financial system. More from the New York Times.

Merkel Address German Parliament
In a speech before parliament, German Chancellor Angela Merkel on Thursday made the case for a planned €500 billion financial system bailout. Meanwhile, the EU moved to ease accounting rules for banks and German politicians sought to cut a deal with Iceland over frozen deposits. More from Der Spiegel.

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