US Campaign Reader

Here are six articles from both the US and international media about the US Presidential race. Highlights of each article provided with a link to the full article.

Obama’s Under-the-Radar Help
By Lynn Sweet in the Chicago Sun Times.

On July 11, the Obama operation created an additional new fund-raising arm that has been fund-raising below the radar, in a drive to collect and funnel money to Democratic parties in 18 key battleground states to register voters and turn out the vote for Barack Obama and down ticket Democratic contests.

The “Committee for Change” just as “Obama for America” and the “Obama Victory Fund” — is part of the effort to elect Obama. By forming a third committee, the Obama campaign can go to donors who have given the maximum under federal contribution limits imposed on the first two committees but have not totally “maxed out.” A similar set-up was in place in 2004 for the Kerry campaign.

Palin Rallies in Richmond; McCain Exhorts in Va. Beach
No author noted in the Richmond Times-Dispatch.

At Richmond International Raceway, Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin likened the last three weeks of the presidential race to last month’s close finish at the raceway in the Chevy Rock & Roll 400.

“You all know something about close races” she told the crowd of between 20,000 and 25,000. “John McCain and I are nearing the finish line of another close race,” and it will be a sprint to the finish.

Before delving into her stump speech, in which she called for tax relief and a freeze on nonessential government spending and setting the nation on a path toward energy independence, Palin thanked the crowd for “this warm welcome to Richmond, Virginia.”

How John McCain Could Still Win
By Walter Shapiro writing for Salon.

With Barack Obama holding a consistent 6-to-11 percentage-point lead in all recent national polls — the stuff of an electoral vote landslide — the 2008 campaign seems poised to enter its Harry Truman phase. That is the moment when John McCain, like virtually every losing candidate for more than half a century, invokes the ghost of “Give ’em hell, Harry” and the fading memories of a miracle 1948 electoral upset. About the only worse omen for McCain is when Republican talking points start to include the banalities of desperation like, “The only poll that matters is the one on Election Day.”

Republicans are already starting to gird themselves for a Nov. 4 debacle. A front-page story in Sunday’s New York Times featured GOP leaders lamenting the disarray in the McCain campaign. More ominous for McCain are the results of a secret-ballot survey by National Journal magazine of roughly 100 prominent Republican campaign consultants. Freed from the demands of on-the-record spin, 80 percent of these operatives admitted that it was highly likely that Obama would win the White House. The other 20 percent — the cockeyed optimists of the GOP camp — predicted that the election could go either way.

McCain’s chances are slim, outside of some unforeseen external event (Israeli strike on Iran, that sort of thing). I have argued that McCain needed to lay out his case for the economy but the problem is that McCain’s health care proposals are being exposed in ads not just from the Obama campaign but by various pro-Obama 527 groups. And what’s equally surprising is that 527 group spending in the battleground states so far running about 3:2 in Obama’s favour. But McCain’s problems, apart from being tied to an unpopular President and a sinking economy, are also tied to a demographic shift in several states. The GOP’s and Lou Dobbs’ anti-immigrant rants have led to record number of Hispanics becoming citizens since the last Presidential election and they are voting 4:1 for Obama in the West and about 3:1 nationwide and that’s tipping states like Colorado, New Mexico and Nevada. The other demographic problem for McCain is among seniors. Back in early August, McCain held an eight-point lead (47%-39%) among those age 65-plus. Now he trails 46% to 45%. But even that masks how serious a problem McCain has among seniors. A month ago in Florida, McCain led 50% to 45%. Today, he trails 51% to 42%. The move towards Obama among seniors is largely limited to the battleground states where anti-McCain health care ads have been running. It’s McCain’s proposal to tax health care benefits that has done the damage.

Florida Republicans Cast Blame as McCain Trails in Polls
By Mary Ellen Klas and Marc Caputo in the Miami Herald.

For the first time in more than a decade, Florida Republicans are considering the almost unthinkable: Their presidential nominee could lose the state.

The economy, an unpopular president, a strong opponent, and the inability of John McCain to reverse poll numbers despite repeatedly revising his strategy has top state Republicans looking for someone to blame.

”There are a lot of folks who have never been in a foxhole before and are clearly nervous,” said Brian Ballard, a major McCain fundraiser. “There is some finger-pointing going on a little bit too soon.”

Even Gov. Charlie Crist, who helped deliver Florida for McCain during the primary, said he will be spending more time minding the state’s weak economy than campaigning for the Arizona senator in the final weeks before Election Day.

”When I have time to help, I’ll try to do that,” Crist said last week, after he flew around the state with McCain running mate Sarah Palin. Saturday, he skipped a McCain football rally and instead went to Disney World.

Once considered a potential running mate, Crist had pledged to do all he could for McCain and spent several days this summer campaigning for the Republican nominee in and outside Florida. He faults the tough economic times for McCain’s difficult time in Florida, where he trails rival Barack Obama by about 5 percentage points in the polls.

No Republican has won the White House in modern times without carrying Florida. The last to lose the state was McCain’s former colleague, Sen. Bob Dole, in 1996. Some Republicans say the state party hasn’t done enough, while others blame McCain’s national campaign.

McCain Plays Valiant Underdog as Once-Loyal South Looks Uncertain
By Suzanne Goldenberg in the UK Guardian.

John McCain, trailing even in the once solid Republican south, tried to rekindle his appeal as a military hero and man of honour yesterday, casting himself as the struggling underdog against Barack Obama.

Down in the polls and derided by conservative commentators, McCain chose this area with a large military population to spur his followers to keep their faith in his candidacy – mostly by affecting bravado at the very real prospect of defeat.

“We have 22 days to go. We’re six points down. The national media has written us off. Senator Obama is measuring the drapes,” he told a large crowd packed into a convention centre. “My friends, we’ve got them just where we want them.”

McCain’s latest reinvention comes after a disastrous three-week slide that has seen the Republican flailing around for a message that will connect in this time of economic crisis. His campaign team had originally planned to announce a new economic plan yesterday but, after some confusion, finally opted to do it today. That allowed Obama to introduce his own economic proposals unchallenged.

Obama Campaign Finds Prejudice Lingers in blue-collar Heartlands
By Ewan MacAskill in the UK Guardian.

John Duffey shakes his head as he recalls bruising racial encounters with his fellow Americans. From morning to night since May he has been working the phones on behalf of Barack Obama.

“People say, ‘I like the guy. I like what he stands for. I like his plans, vision, but I am still undecided.’ That has to be the race issue,” says Duffey.

Others say outright they will not vote for a black man.

Duffey, an official with the Construction Workers’ Union, works alongside his wife, daughter and two nephews at a phone bank in the headquarters of the United Steelworkers of America, in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. An African-American, he said: “It is actually a hurtful feeling that in 2008 people can’t get over the race issue.”

In another room Kaitlin Decero, a 22-year-old intern from Indiana, is also on the phone on behalf of Obama. The team she works with averages about 300 calls an hour and race comes up a lot.

People who have voted Democrat in the past tell her they will not be doing so this time. “Some people will say openly, ‘he is a black’, ‘I do not trust him’, ‘he is an Arab’, ‘he is a Muslim’, ‘he was not born in America’. They use the ‘n-word’. We just hang up.” Decero puts the ratio of bad calls to good at about 1 in 20.

The impact of race is the big unknown in this election. The lingering fear among Democrats is that 2008 will be a repeat of 1982 – and subsequent races involving black candidates – when Tom Bradley lost the California governor’s contest in spite of polls suggesting he had a lead of between 9% and 22%. White voters had lied in huge numbers to pollsters about their real feelings.

Pollsters now believe the so-called “Bradley effect” has largely disappeared, partly because polling techniques are better at detecting racism and partly because of a cultural change in America, with those under the ago of 50 less concerned about race than their parents.

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hlr
October 14th, 2008 17:57

Note: I’m not an advocate for either candidate.

It’s McCain’s proposal to tax health care benefits that has done the damage.

The real losers are us.

I do support certain aspects of McCain’s proposed reforms. I am not a fan of entrenching health care in an employer-based system skewed to large corps/orgs (the default Dem position). The vaunted risk-pools are maintained only for the benefit of large corps. It is the height of hypocrisy to laud the health benefit tax exclusion as ‘progressive’ as the benefit is greater for the employed in higher-income brackets.

I do not support McCain’s plan as it stands because I do not believe that consumer purchasing power/competition is sufficient to drive down costs *across the board (although BO has no mechanism either). However, I acknowledge that the proposed refundable tax credit (like the EITC) may be more egalitarian for certain segments (in fact, the McCain plan favors my circumstances).

I am bullish on portability but wary of the idea of leaving guaranteed coverage to state high-risk plans (McCain). OTOH, BO’s proposed ‘national network’ offers little comfort to the uninsured; self-employed, as it could be just as unaffordable. In fact, given that small businesses under a certain employee-level are exempted from contributing (the basis for the fund), I don’t see why larger employers wouldn’t just break up the organization into smaller entities — a popular maneuver to dominate federal contracting by “small business.” BO’s plan sounds like the junk faxes I get periodically: Nobody can be turned down, low premiums!

Neither candidate offers sufficient detail to evaluate. Consumer Reports took a stab at it with mixed results.

BO is telling people what they want to hear, pure and simple. Seniors making under $50K won’t pay taxes! (Why should they be a preferred class?) 95% of you get a tax cut! My plan offers quality coverage at affordable premiums! Behind the scenes today according to the WaPo, BO has been assuring Blue Dog Dems that his proposals will be guided by pay-go, which is tantamount to saying that none of the above will happen. As I mentioned in an earlier comment, simply the maintenance of Bush tax cuts below $200K/$250K (ind/fam) income levels results in a revenue reduction that cannot be offset by spending cuts alone — not to mention new spending.

DandyTiger
October 14th, 2008 20:32

Very nice analysis hlr, thanks. And nice summary of news as usual Charles.

Gosh, I go out of town for a week and everything seems to be changing… I’ll comment on polls above…

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