Polls in Florida (link to US Census demographic data) continue to confirm that Senator Obama has taken control of the race in the Sunshine State. Three weeks ago, Senator McCain led by five points. But two weeks ago, the race in Florida turned into a dead heat tied at 47% apiece and over the first week of October, Senator Obama opened up a seven point, 52% to 45%. Over the course of last week, McCain appeared to be inching back in the race in the nation’s fourth most populous state closing to within three points. Today’s poll from Rasmussen Reports gives Obama a comfortable margin of five points, 51% to 46%. Libertarian candidate Bob Barr draws 1% of the vote.

Barack Obama now has a five-point lead – 51% to 46% — on John McCain in Florida, according to the latest Fox News/Rasmussen reports telephone survey in the state. Libertarian candidate Bob Barr draws one percent (1%) of the vote.

McCain had generally been leading in Florida until late last month when the race was tied up. Since then Obama has been moving ahead. He led by seven points a week ago in the Fox News/Rasmussen Reports poll. A poll conducted in the middle of last week showed Obama with a three-point advantage.

McCain is viewed favorably by 54% and unfavorably by 44%. For Obama, his favorables are 55%, his unfavorables 43%.

Nationally, with the steady drumbeat of bad economic news, Obama has opened a stable lead over McCain in both the Rasmussen Daily Presidential Tracking Poll and the Electoral College projections.

In Florida, both candidates are drawing 87% support from members of their own parties. Unaffiliated voters favor Obama 56% to 37%. While McCain leads among White voters, he trails among Hispanic voters 64% to 34%. Obama leads by nine points among women but trails by two among men.

Florida has been carried by the Republican presidential candidates in eight out of the last 10 elections, most notably in 2000 when it took a month to determine that George W. Bush was the winner. In 2004, Bush easily defeated Democrat John Kerry 52% to 47%. The closeness of the 2000 race, however, has given Florida the reputation of being a so-called swing state.

Florida voters are evenly divided over which candidate they trust more in general and which candidate they would ask advice of if faced with the toughest decision of their lives. That is a shift from earlier this fall when McCain was trusted by more Sunshine State voters.

Fifty-six percent (56%) say the economy is the most important issue in this election, while 19% say national security is number one. As in much of the country, Florida voters trust Obama more on the economy and McCain more on national security.

Forty-five percent (45%) say they would be very or extremely comfortable with Obama in the White House. Forty-one percent (41%) say the same of McCain. Thirty-nine percent (39%) would be not at all comfortable with Obama as president, compared to 36% who believe that of McCain.

Forty-eight percent of Florida voters say they would be very or extremely comfortable with Obama’s running mate, Joseph Biden, as vice president. Thirty-one percent (31%) say they would not be comfortable at all with Biden in that position.

As for GOP vice presidential candidate Sarah Palin, 39% say they would be very or extremely comfortable with her in the number two position, but 49% say they would be not at all comfortable with that.

Polling Trends

Takeaways
No change to my overall thesis.

1– The race is now is mostly being contested in states that the GOP carried in 2004 and that favours Obama. My current crop of battleground states are Ohio, Indiana, Missouri, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Florida, Virginia, North Carolina, Nevada, New Mexico, Colorado and the Second Congressional District in Maine. In these, the latest polls give McCain an advantage in just Indiana. A number are a dead heat but Obama holds the edge in Florida, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Colorado, Missouri, New Mexico and Nevada. Polls in Maine show an Obama lead overall in the state but Maine awards its Electoral College votes by Congressional district and reports indicate that McCain stands a chance at winning two of Maine’s four Electoral College votes. McCain is defending the states won by Bush. Obama is the one on offensive. He is the one playing in the other guy’s sand box.

2– The race began to turn in Obama’s favour on September 15th with the collapse of Lehman Brothers and the rescue of AIG. With the stock market in a free fall, more and more Americans seem to place the blame for the economic tumble on the shoulders of the GOP thus hurting McCain’s chances.

Florida has 27 Electoral College votes. Bush carried the state in 2004 by a five point margin.

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