The first poll for North Dakota was on September 10th from Rasmussen Reports. In that poll, Senator McCain led by 14 points. The last publicly reported North Dakota presidential poll, taken Sept. 16-17, showed McCain led Obama 53% to 40%. Today, the Fargo Forum released the results of a poll which show the race a dead heat with a slight edge for Senator Obama, 45% to 43% with 12% undecided. North Dakota last voted for a Democrat in 1964. Since 1916, it has voted for a Democrat just three times — all in Democratic landslides 1932, 1936 and 1964.
Barack Obama is shown with an edge against John McCain in a North Dakota presidential race that has narrowed to a statistical tie, according to a new Forum poll.
The survey shows Obama squeaking past McCain, 45 percent to 43 percent, a lead that falls within the poll’s margin of error and therefore indicates a dead heat, according to political analysts.
Still up for grabs: undecided voters, comprising 12 percent.
It’s a statistical tossup,” said Jim Danielson, co-director of the Public Affairs Institute at Minnesota State University Moorhead, which conducted the statewide telephone survey for The Forum. Pollsters contacted 606 likely North Dakota voters by telephone Oct. 6-8.
The poll indicates McCain’s once-comfortable lead in North Dakota has melted away as Obama is the widely favored choice among voters who consider the economy the most pressing issue.
Among voters who rank the economy as their top concern, 49 percent favor Obama, while 38 percent back McCain. The economy was far and away the most important national issue among voters, according to the poll, even though a majority regarded their own economic situation as “better off” or the “same” compared to a year ago.
Another troubling sign in the poll for McCain, who has styled himself as a maverick who is not a clone of President Bush: McCain has failed to solidify his hold on the GOP base in North Dakota, where he has the support of just 73 percent of voters identifying themselves as strong Republicans.
In February’s North Dakota Republican caucuses, McCain finished second behind Mitt Romney, barely ahead of Ron Paul, an early sign his campaign was not eagerly embraced by many of the party faithful.
By contrast, Obama has a commanding lead among Democratic voters and is a favorite among independent voters.
McCain’s running mate, Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, is shown as neither helping nor hurting the Republican among North Dakota voters. Eighty percent of those polled said McCain’s selection of Palin as running mate had little or no influence on their choice of primary candidate.
If Obama defeats McCain in North Dakota’s Nov. 4 election, it would be a historic loss for the Republicans, who have failed to carry the state in only three presidential elections since 1916, most recently Lyndon Johnson’s defeat of Barry Goldwater in 1964.
Not long ago, North Dakota appeared to be strongly behind McCain, despite Obama’s decision to open field offices throughout the state, an unprecedented presence by a Democratic presidential contender. The Obama campaign recently pulled its staff from North Dakota, shifting them to hotly contested Minnesota and Wisconsin, but a network of volunteers continues to work out of the offices.
The last publicly reported North Dakota presidential poll, taken Sept. 16-17, showed McCain led Obama 53 percent to 40 percent, the latest in a string of surveys this year showing the Republican was ahead in North Dakota. But an early poll, in February, surprised many politicos when Obama was shown leading 46 percent to 42 percent.
With three weeks remaining in the race, with the nation rocked by a financial panic and wars continuing in Iraq and Afghanistan, the two presidential candidates’ fate could be strongly influence by factors outside their control, said Philip Baumann, co-director of the Public Affairs Institute and a professor of political science at MSUM.
“Lots can depend on external situations and developments,” Baumann said.
Despite McCain’s problems in North Dakota, the Republicans’ strong organization in the state still could prove formidable, Danielson said. A party’s machine is crucial in getting its voters to the polls on Election Day.
“If I were going to put my money on it right now, my estimate is the Republicans will have the lead there,” Danielson said.
Still, the poll suggests North Dakota, which holds three of 538 electoral votes, will draw renewed interest and redoubled efforts from both campaigns, Baumann said.
“You could see a scramble from both parties,” he added. “Right now it’s neck and neck. It’s within the margin of error. It could go either way.”
Takeaways
I am not adjusting my thesis based on one poll but I do think that this poll points to a problem for McCain. Even in the redder states, his support has been sagging some.
1– The race is now is mostly being contested in states that the GOP carried in 2004 and that favours Obama. Pennsylvania was until late September a battleground state but it is now safely in the Obama column. My current crop of battleground states are Ohio, Indiana, Missouri, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Florida, Virginia, North Carolina, Nevada, New Mexico, Colorado and the Second Congressional District in Maine. In these, the latest polls give McCain an advantage in just Ohio, Indiana and now North Carolina. A number are a dead heat but Obama holds the edge in Florida, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada and Missouri. Polls in Maine show an Obama lead overall in the state but Maine awards its Electoral College votes by Congressional district and reports indicate that McCain stands a chance at winning two of Maine’s four Electoral College votes. McCain is defending the states won by Bush. Obama is the one on offensive. He is the one playing in the other guy’s sand box.
2– The race began to turn in Obama’s favour on September 15th with the collapse of Lehman Brothers and the rescue of AIG. With the stock market in a free fall, more and more Americans seem to place the blame for the economic tumble on the shoulders of the GOP thus hurting McCain’s chances.
The reason I have chosen to highlight this poll is because I am big believer in looking at trends. Since 1916, it has voted for a Democrat just three times — all in Democratic landslides 1932, 1936 and 1964. The fact that North Dakota is competitive at this stage of the game suggests a landslide in the making.