Today’s election in Canada gave the Conservative Party led by Prime Minister Stephen Harper a 144 of the 308 seats in Parliament. The Tories increased the number of ridings won from the 127 they held before the election but they fell 11 short of the 155 needed for a majority.
The opposition Liberals were at 77, down from 95, the separatist Bloc Quebecois were steady at 48 seats and the leftist New Democrats were up seven to 37 seats. Independents took two seats and the Greens won none. Justin Trudeau, the son of the late Prime Minister Pierre Trudeau, won his race in a riding in southern Quebec for the Liberal Party.
Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper, the first Western leader to face the electorate since the financial meltdown began, won reelection with a significantly stronger minority government on Tuesday.
The Conservatives, who convinced voters they were the best choice to steer Canada through the economic turmoil, will still need opposition support to govern.
It will be Canada’s third minority government in four years. Harper’s Conservatives defeated a Liberal minority government in the January 2006 election.
Initial results showed that the Conservatives won 38 percent of the vote, above the 36.3 percent they got in 2006. But vote splitting on the left left the party in a much stronger position.
Initial television projections gave the Conservatives 144 of Parliament’s 308 seats, up from the 127 they held before the election but 11 short of the 155 needed for a majority.
The opposition Liberals were at 77, down from 95, the separatist Bloc Quebecois were steady at 48 seats and the leftist New Democrats were up seven to 37 seats. Independents took two seats and the Greens won none.
“We were expecting a minority government. It looks like it will be a strengthened one. We’re going to get right back to work — that’s what people expect us to do,” Health Minister Tony Clement told Global Television.
The Liberals, who have historically governed Canada for longer than any other party, looked set for their worst performance since 1984 in terms of seats and their worst showing in popular vote since the 1860s. The rout could trigger a battle within the party to replace leader Stephane Dion. However, he gave no suggestion he would go willingly.
“Canadians are asking me to be the leader of the opposition, and I accept that responsibility with honor,” he told his supporters in Montreal in conceding defeat.
The conservative 527 group, Let Freedom Ring kicked off its $5 million dollar, three-part Internet, radio and television spot campaign making it the largest single ad campaign among outside advocacy groups in this year’s Presidential election cycle. Over a dozen television and radio spots were released. The top four are 30 second spots and the next five are 60 second spots. The fifth ad is entitled Pennsylvanians is only for the Pennsylvania market where the McCain campaign has decided to make a push even though all polls show Senator Obama leading by double digits. This ad revives Obama’s comments in San Francisco where he noted that rural Americans were bitter and clinging to guns and to religion. All the other ads will air nationwide in selected markets.
The last three are Internet-only. These last three ads are more issue-center than anti-Obama per se (he isn’t even mention by name) but little is left to doubt who is implied. These three ads are 60 second spots. The last four ads have additional information at Consequences.org.
This last one is a sort of an “Obama’s greatest hits” ad.
Nice Try, Senator
For more background on Let Freedom Ring, please visit Source Watch.
While a $5 million ad buy may sound large, to put it in perspective the Obama campaign is spending $3.5 million a day on television ad buys alone right now and has plans to surpass the $5 million mark per day the week before the election.
A Rasmussen Reports poll in Missouri (link is to US Census demographic data) shows the race in the Show Me State breaking narrowly in Senator Obama’s direction. Three weeks ago polls in Missouri were a dead heat with a narrow McCain lead. Last week, the race was still close though the lead had shifted to Obama. Just yesterday a Survey USA poll showed Obama leading McCain by eight points, 51% to 43%. However today’s poll has Obama leading by just three points, 50% to 47%. I tend to trust Rasmussen Reports more than SUSA (which has a higher margin of error and a smaller sample size) so I am adjusting my thesis to move Missouri back into the dead heat category.
Missouri is a critical bellwether state. In the past 100 years, the state has only been wrong once back in 1956.
Barack Obama holds a 50% to 47% lead in Missouri for the second week in a row, according to the latest Fox News/Rasmussen Reports survey in the state.
Obama took the lead in the state a week ago, as national trends began to move the Democrat’s way. In September at this time, McCain was ahead by six. The Republican had led for most of the year in the Show-Me State.
Nationally, with the steady drumbeat of bad economic news, Obama has opened a stable lead over McCain in both the Rasmussen Daily Presidential Tracking Poll and the Electoral College projections.
In Missouri, both candidates have over 90% support from members of their own party and unaffiliated voters are evenly divided. Twenty percent (20%) of Missouri voters say they may change their minds between now and Election Day on who to vote for, including 37% of unaffiliated voters.
In the latest Survey USA (SUSA) poll for Pennsylvania (link is US Census demographic data), Senator Obama continues to hold the wide lead he opened up in the past three weeks. In the Keystone State, Obama leads Senator McCain 55% to 40%, a 15 point margin not much different from the 13 point margin Obama enjoyed last week (54% to 41%). On September 25th, Obama led McCain 49% to 45%, a four point margin.
One key difference in the Keystone State from other states is that Libertarian Bob Barr and Independent Ralph Nader are polling combined in the mid single digits. In fact, it seems that Barr is hurting McCain more than Nader is affecting Obama. I’ve broken out some the internals below the fold but I’ll note one trend because it proves one of my assertions, Obama is getting a larger share of disaffected Democrats with every poll. In this poll, he picked up another 5% of Clinton voters.
In an election for President of the United States in the pivotal battleground state of Pennsylvania, the Columbus Day weekend brings zero good news for Republican John McCain, who today trails Democrat Barack Obama by same 15 points that he did one week ago, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted for WCAU-TV Philadelphia, KDKA-TV Pittsburgh, WNEP-TV Scranton, WHTM-TV Harrisburg, and WJAC-TV Johnstown. Today, Obama 55%, McCain 40%, identical to a SurveyUSA tracking poll released 7 days ago. Week-on-week, McCain made slight inroads among men, where he cut into Obama’s lead, but that is offset by ground McCain lost among women. Most remarkable: when interviewing began one week ago for the 10/07/08 SurveyUSA poll, the Dow Jones Average was at 10,325. When interviewing began for the 10/14/08 poll, the Dow Jones Average was at 8,451. Over 7 days in which the Dow lost 1,874 points, neither Barack Obama nor John McCain gained a point, nor lost a point, in SurveyUSA polling in Pennsylvania.
Obama maintains an overwhelming advantage in Southeast PA, which includes Philadelphia. Obama maintains a slight advantage in Northeast PA, which includes Scranton. The contest remains tied in Southwest PA, which includes Pittsburgh, and in West Central PA, which includes Johnstown. McCain continues to lead in South Central PA, which includes Harrisburg.
In the Palmetto State, a new poll from Survey USA (SUSA) gives Senator McCain a large double digit lead over Senator Obama. In South Carolina, one of the nation’s most conservative states, McCain leads 55% to 41%, a 14 point margin. However, and this points to McCain’s troubles elsewhere, McCain on September 20th led by 22 points. McCain will carry South Carolina, that’s not the issue. The issue is that he is struggling in places he shouldn’t be struggling.
If an election for President of the United States in South Carolina were held today, 10/14/08, three weeks till votes are counted, Republican John McCain defeats Republican Barack Obama by 55% to 41%, according to this latest exclusive WCSC-TV poll conducted by SurveyUSA. Compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll released three weeks ago, Obama is up 2 points; McCain is down 3.
Among men, nothing has changed; McCain continues to lead by 19 points. Among women, there is movement towards Obama; McCain had led by 18, now leads by 8.
Among the 47% of voters who are younger than Barack Obama, there is also movement toward the Democrat: McCain had led by 15 points, now leads by 6. The race remains unchanged among older voters.
Upstate, McCain continues to lead 2:1. In the Midlands, McCain had led by 8, now trails by 1, a 9-point swing toward Obama. In the Low Country, McCain had led by 16, now leads by 8.
This is the eleventh poll of the critical battleground state of Ohio (link to US census demographic data) and the second consecutive poll to show a tight race once again after two which had shown Senator Obama leading by as many as seven points. It appears that at least in the Buckeye State after the rough patch of the last three weeks that the McCain campaign has stemmed the bleed. In the latest poll from Rasmussen Reports Senator Obama enjoys a narrow two point lead over Senator McCain, 49% to 47%. As that’s inside the margin of error, the race in the Buckeye State is a dead heat. The Ohio News Consortium poll out at the end of last week gave McCain a two point lead.
Barack Obama has pulled in front of John McCain in Ohio. The latest Fox News/Rasmussen Reports telephone poll in the state finds Obama leading 49% to 47%.
This is the first (Rasmussen Reports) poll where Obama has been ahead since tracking of the race began in February. McCain has led by a single percentage points for the past three weeks, after a four-point lead in mid-September. Seventy-seven percent (77%) of voters say they are certain of who they will vote for, while 23% say there is still a chance they can change their minds.
Obama now leads 49% to 42% among unaffiliated voters in Ohio. He also leads 53% to 43% among women while McCain has a 52% to 45% edge among men.
The latest poll for North Carolina (link is to US Census demographic data) from Rasmussen Reports confirms the back and forth narrowness of the race in the Tar Heel State. The two previous polls over the past week had each given Senator Obama or Senator McCain a narrow within the margin of error lead. Today’s poll has it all even at 47% apiece. The reason why this isn’t good news for McCain is because North Carolina has been a reliably GOP state that last voted for a Democrat in 1976. Once again Obama is in McCain’s sandbox.
It’s all tied in North Carolina.
The latest Fox News/Rasmussen Reports telephone survey finds that 48% of Tar Heel voters prefer Barack Obama while an identical number favor John McCain. One percent (1%) say they’ll vote for Libertarian candidate Bob Barr, and three percent (3%) remain undecided.
Obama had held a one-point edge in polling conducted last week and a three-point edge two weeks ago.
McCain was ahead in North Carolina before the problems on Wall Street became visible to Americans everywhere. Not surprisingly, the numbers in North Carolina reflect national trends. McCain was slightly ahead before Lehman Brothers collapsed in mid-September and fell behind shortly thereafter. For the past two-and-a-half weeks, Obama has maintained a modest but steady lead in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll and in the Electoral College.
LIBOR stands for the London Inter-Bank Offered Rate. LIBOR is the interest rate at which large international banks are willing to lend each other money on a short-term basis. It’s calculated every business day in 10 currencies and 15 terms, ranging from overnight to one year. Some LIBOR terms are overnight, one week, two week, one month, three month, six month and one year. The reason LIBOR is important is because so many other financial instruments are calculated off LIBOR. The above 75 second video provides an overview on how LIBOR can impact your life.
Polls in Florida (link to US Census demographic data) continue to confirm that Senator Obama has taken control of the race in the Sunshine State. Three weeks ago, Senator McCain led by five points. But two weeks ago, the race in Florida turned into a dead heat tied at 47% apiece and over the first week of October, Senator Obama opened up a seven point, 52% to 45%. Over the course of last week, McCain appeared to be inching back in the race in the nation’s fourth most populous state closing to within three points. Today’s poll from Rasmussen Reports gives Obama a comfortable margin of five points, 51% to 46%. Libertarian candidate Bob Barr draws 1% of the vote.
Barack Obama now has a five-point lead – 51% to 46% — on John McCain in Florida, according to the latest Fox News/Rasmussen reports telephone survey in the state. Libertarian candidate Bob Barr draws one percent (1%) of the vote.
McCain had generally been leading in Florida until late last month when the race was tied up. Since then Obama has been moving ahead. He led by seven points a week ago in the Fox News/Rasmussen Reports poll. A poll conducted in the middle of last week showed Obama with a three-point advantage.
McCain is viewed favorably by 54% and unfavorably by 44%. For Obama, his favorables are 55%, his unfavorables 43%.
Nationally, with the steady drumbeat of bad economic news, Obama has opened a stable lead over McCain in both the Rasmussen Daily Presidential Tracking Poll and the Electoral College projections.
The first poll for North Dakota was on September 10th from Rasmussen Reports. In that poll, Senator McCain led by 14 points. The last publicly reported North Dakota presidential poll, taken Sept. 16-17, showed McCain led Obama 53% to 40%. Today, the Fargo Forum released the results of a poll which show the race a dead heat with a slight edge for Senator Obama, 45% to 43% with 12% undecided. North Dakota last voted for a Democrat in 1964. Since 1916, it has voted for a Democrat just three times — all in Democratic landslides 1932, 1936 and 1964.
Barack Obama is shown with an edge against John McCain in a North Dakota presidential race that has narrowed to a statistical tie, according to a new Forum poll.
The survey shows Obama squeaking past McCain, 45 percent to 43 percent, a lead that falls within the poll’s margin of error and therefore indicates a dead heat, according to political analysts.
Still up for grabs: undecided voters, comprising 12 percent.
