Polls in the Commonwealth of Virginia remain very tight but Senator Obama continues to be marginally ahead of Senator McCain. Last week, Obama led by two points. This week his lead is three points according to the latest Rasmussen Reports poll. Obama leads 50% to 47%.
Barack Obama continues to lead John McCain in Virginia, which this year has shaped up to be a critical battleground state. The latest Fox News/Rasmussen Reports telephone poll in the state finds Obama leading 50% to 47%.
A week ago, Obama had a 50% to 48% edge. His lead is identical to that two weeks ago.
McCain and his running mate Sarah Palin are scheduled to campaign in Virginia today. Obama and his vice presidential partner, Joseph Biden, campaigned in the state two weeks ago.
George W. Bush won Virginia by eight percentage points in both 2000 and 2004, but Democrats have focused on Virginia this year as a red state they hope to peel away from Republicans. No Democrat has won the state since Lyndon Johnson in 1964.
The candidates are tied at 48% among unaffiliated voters in Virginia. McCain leads 50% to 49% among men, while Obama has a 51% to 46% advantage among women.
McCain leads among white voters in Virginia 59% to 38%. Obama leads 83% to 14% among non-white voters.
Obama is viewed favorably by 54% and unfavorably by 45%. McCain’s reviews are 56% favorable, 43% unfavorable.
Voters in Virginia trust Obama more overall by a 48% to 47% margin, representing little change from last week, when the candidates were tied at 48% each.
On the top issue of the economy, voters in Virginia trust Obama more by a 49% to 46% margin. Last week, Obama led 50% to 46% on this issue.
On national security and the War on Terror, voters trust McCain more than Obama, 52% to 44%.
Sixty-five percent (65%) say they would be at least somewhat comfortable with McCain in the White House, while just 58% say that of Obama. However, while 37% say they would be extremely comfortable with an Obama presidency, just 25% say the same of McCain. Forty percent (40%) would not be comfortable at all with Obama in office, while 35% would not be comfortable at all with McCain as president.
Voters are most comfortable with Biden as vice president. Sixty-nine percent (69%) say they would be at least somewhat comfortable with Biden in the number two job. Just over half (52%) of voters say they would be at least somewhat comfortable with Palin in the role. While 30% of voters say they would not be comfortable at all with Biden as vice president, 46% say that about Palin.
Takeaways
The good news for McCain is that he is still within the margin of error thus keeping the Commonwealth competitive. The bad news for McCain is that this is a state he has to win. The major battles of this campaign are now being fought on states that the GOP won in 2004. That’s telling and should be troubling to the McCain campaign. Virginia has 13 electoral votes. In 2004, Bush carried Virginia by an 8.2% margin.
No change to my current thesis.
1– The race is now is mostly being contested in states that the GOP carried in 2004 and that favours Obama. Pennsylvania was until late September a battleground state but it is now safely in the Obama column. My current crop of battleground states are Ohio, Indiana, Missouri, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Florida, Virginia, North Carolina, Nevada, New Mexico, Colorado and the Second Congressional District in Maine. In these, the latest polls give McCain an advantage in just Ohio, Indiana and now North Carolina. A number are a dead heat but Obama holds the edge in Florida, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada and Missouri. Polls in Maine show an Obama lead overall in the state but Maine awards its Electoral College votes by Congressional district and reports indicate that McCain stands a chance at winning two of Maine’s four Electoral College votes. McCain is defending the states won by Bush. Obama is the one on offensive. He is the one playing in the other guy’s sand box.
2– The race began to turn in Obama’s favour on September 15th with the collapse of Lehman Brothers and the rescue of AIG. With the stock market in a free fall, more and more Americans seem to place the blame for the economic tumble on the shoulders of the GOP thus hurting McCain’s chances.