Polls in the Commonwealth of Virginia remain very tight but Senator Obama continues to be marginally ahead of Senator McCain. Last week, Obama led by two points. This week his lead is three points according to the latest Rasmussen Reports poll. Obama leads 50% to 47%.

Barack Obama continues to lead John McCain in Virginia, which this year has shaped up to be a critical battleground state. The latest Fox News/Rasmussen Reports telephone poll in the state finds Obama leading 50% to 47%.

A week ago, Obama had a 50% to 48% edge. His lead is identical to that two weeks ago.

McCain and his running mate Sarah Palin are scheduled to campaign in Virginia today. Obama and his vice presidential partner, Joseph Biden, campaigned in the state two weeks ago.

(more…)

A Survey USA (SUSA) poll in Missouri (link is to US Census demographic data) shows the race in the Show Me State breaking decisively in Senator Obama’s direction. Three weeks ago polls in Missouri were a dead heat with a narrow McCain lead. Last week, the race was still close though the lead had shifted to Obama. Today, Obama leads McCain by eight points, 51% to 43%.

Missouri is a critical bellweather state. In the past 100 years, the state has only been wrong once back in 1956.

If an election for President of the United States in battleground Missouri were held today, 10/13/08, three weeks until votes are counted, Democrat Barack Obama has the momentum and a meaningful advantage in SurveyUSA’s latest tracking poll, conducted for KMOX radio in St Louis and KCTV-TV in Kansas City. The contest in Missouri has swung 10-points to Obama since SurveyUSA’s last track point, 3 weeks ago. Then, McCain led by 2. Today, Obama leads, 51% to 43%. Among white voters, McCain had led by 11. Today, tied. There is movement among men, where McCain had led, now trails; among women, where McCain had been tied, now trails; among higher-income voters, where McCain had led, now trails; and among Independents, where McCain had led, now trails. In greater St. Louis, Obama had led by 5, now by 22. In greater Kansas City, Obama had led by 16, now by 31. George W. Bush carried Missouri by 7 points in 2004, and by 3.5 points in 2000. The state has 11 electoral votes, which are critical to any Republican who seeks the White House.

It’s over barring some sort of extraordinary external unforeseen event.

(more…)

Confirming my suspicion that the previous Rasmussen was likely an outlier that gave Senator Obama only an eight point lead in New Jersey (link to US Census Bureau Demographic Quick Facts), today’s Survey USA (SUSA) poll gives Obama once again a double digit lead in the Garden State. Obama leads Senator McCain, 55% to 40%.

If an election for President of the United States in New Jersey were held today, 10/13/08, three weeks until votes are counted, Democrat Barack Obama would defeat Republican John McCain 55% to 40%, according to this SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for WABC-TV in New York and WCAU-TV in Philadelphia. Compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll released two weeks ago, Obama is up 2 points; McCain is down 3.

Obama takes a majority of the vote among most groups: men and women, young and old, well-educated and less-educated, rich and poor. Obama leads by 22 points in North Jersey, by 10 points in Central Jersey, and by 9 points in South Jersey. 16% of Republicans cross-over to vote for Obama; 11% of Democrats cross over to vote for McCain. Independents split.

New Jersey has 15 Electoral College votes. John Kerry carried New Jersey by 7 points in 2004; Al Gore carried the state by 16 points in 2000.

(more…)

In Iowa, a new poll from Survey USA (SUSA) points to a widening lead for Senator Obama over Senator McCain. In the previous poll (Rasmussen Reports September 28), Obama led by eight. He now leads by 13, 54% to 41%. Also of note while McCain’s support has fallen off, not all of that has translated into gains for Obama. Nader and Barr have seen an uptick in their support in Iowa. Combined, Nader and Barr are polling 5%.

If an election for President of the United States were held in Iowa today, 10/13/08, 22 days until Election Day, Democrat Barack Obama would defeat Republican John McCain 54% to 41%, according to this latest SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for KAAL-TV Mason City and WHO-TV Des Moines. Compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll released three weeks ago, McCain is down two points; Obama is flat.

Among men, Obama today leads by 9 points. Three weeks ago — before three debates and the $700 billion economic rescue package, and immediately after Lehman Brothers, AIG, and Fannie Mae — the race was tied among men. Among women, Obama had led by 20, now leads by 17.
6% of Democrats cross over to vote for McCain; 12% of Republicans cross over to vote for Obama. Independents favor Obama by 6 points.

Among the 14% of Iowa voters who say they have already cast their ballot, Obama leads by a 2:1 margin. Among likely voters, Obama leads 5:4.

(more…)

Over the past month in Georgia, Senator McCain’s lead over Senator Obama has narrowed from low double digits to high single digits reflecting a trend towards seen in many states across the nation but in Georgia at least McCain’s narrowing lead seems to be holding steady at eight to nine points. It suggests that McCain has bottomed out at least in Georgia. This week’s Survey USA (SUSA) poll in Georgia (link is to US Census demographic data) shows little difference from earlier poll from Survey USA. McCain leads Obama in this SUSA poll, 51% to 43%. In last week’s Rasmussen Poll, Obama led 54% to 45%. The decline in support for the main tier candidates has translated into a gain for native son Libertarian candidate Bob Barr who polled 4% in the SUSA poll. But the crux of the problem for McCain is simple. In Georgia, McCain continues to lead Obama comfortably by eight, but Bush carried the state by 17 points in 2004. That speaks volumes.

If an election for President of the United States in Georgia were held today, 10/13/08, three weeks until votes are counted, Republican John McCain would defeat Democrat Barack Obama 51% to 43%, according to this SurveyUSA tracking poll conducted for WXIA-TV in Atlanta and WMAZ-TV in Macon. Compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll two weeks ago, McCain and Obama are each down one point, “other,” which would include Georgian Bob Barr, is up 2 points.

McCain is holding his ground among men, Republicans, Conservatives, and Independents. McCain is losing ground among women, moderates, and lower-income voters.

Early and absentee voting began in Georgia on 09/22/08. Among the 18% of Georgia voters who tell SurveyUSA they have already voted, Obama leads by 6 points; among those who have not yet voted, McCain leads by 11.

(more…)

Senator Obama has just won the race with the speech he gave today in Toledo. He hasn’t earned my vote because I cannot sanction much about his character but he can redeem himself. His speech today is an excellent start.

We meet at a moment of great uncertainty for America. The economic crisis we face is the worst since the Great Depression. Markets across the globe have become increasingly unstable, and millions of Americans will open up their 401(k) statements this week and see that so much of their hard-earned savings have disappeared.

The credit crisis has left businesses large and small unable to get loans, which means they can’t buy new equipment, or hire new workers, or even make payroll for the workers they have. You’ve got auto plants right here in Ohio that have been around for decades closing their doors and laying off workers who’ve never known another job in their entire life.

760,000 workers have lost their jobs this year. Unemployment here in Ohio is up 85% over the last eight years, which is the highest it’s been in sixteen years. You’ve lost one of every four manufacturing jobs, the typical Ohio family has seen their income fall $2,500, and it’s getting harder and harder to make the mortgage, or fill up your gas tank, or even keep the electricity on at the end of the month. At this rate, the question isn’t just “are you better off than you were four years ago?”, it’s “are you better off than you were four weeks ago?”

(more…)

In case you’re wondering why McCain has slipped so much in the polls among seniors, it’s ads like the above from Health Care for America Now that point to McCain’s simply insane health care proposals. This ad is a 30 second spot and it is running in Florida, Ohio and Colorado.

For more on Health Care for America Now backers, please visit Source Watch.

Return to Main

Time to update the favorability ratio. This is the seventh weekly installment (we skipped a week last due to my birthday). Senator Obama still enjoys high favourable ratings but his unfavourable ratings have begun to creep back up. However compared to Senator McCain, Obama has no complaints. McCain’s favourable ratings are his lowest yet and his unfavourable at his highest so far. Overall, Obama enjoys a 21 basis point advantage over McCain. Unless McCain can reverse this trend, this election is over.

The Lemos Favorability Ratio
One of the tools that we use on Wall Street to measure movement is by expressing data as a ratio and then tracking the movement of the basis points. A basis point is a unit that is equal to 1/100th of 1%, and is used to denote the change in any financial instrument. The basis point is commonly used for calculating changes in interest rates, equity indexes and the yield of a fixed-income security. The relationship between percentage changes and basis points can be summarized as follows: 1% change = 100 basis points, and 0.01% = 1 basis point. Tracking any movement is possible and movements can be very clearly delineated. Eight weeks ago, I decided to track both Senator Obama’s Favorable versus Unfavorable ratings as well as Senator McCain’s Favorable versus Unfavorable ratings. I take the the favorable rating and divide by the unfavorable rating to get a ratio which I have named the Lemos Favorability Ratio.

I am using Rasmussen Reports Daily Tracking Poll as my raw data. Rasmussen Reports is putting out a daily tracking poll with the national favorability versus unfavorability percentages. Their data extends back to June 4, 2008 and I have created a weekly Excel spreadsheet tracking the data. Here’s that data broken out by candidate and then a side-by-side comparison of the Lemos Favorability ratio is below the fold.

McCain Favourable versus Unfavourable Ratings Nationwide

Takeaway
In terms of the ratio, you want a higher number. The higher the number the greater the spread between your favorable and unfavorable ratings. McCain enjoyed his highest number to date five weeks ago, 1.58 in the favorability ratio but has seen an erosion of 49 basis point erosion over the past over this period as his favorable rating declined by nine points and his unfavorable rating rose by the same amount. However, McCain is now at his lows in the index at 1.09.

Obama Favourable versus Unfavourable Ratings Nationwide

Takeaway
Again in terms of the ratio, you want a higher number. The higher the number the greater the spread between your favorable and unfavorable ratings. As of today, Obama now stands at 1.30 in the index, 21 basis points higher than McCain. Obama’s favourable ratings have come down off their peak by two points and his unfavourable ratings have gone up by the same amount but he is in far better position than McCain.
(more…)

“It’s not that I want to punish your success. I just want to make sure that everybody that is behind you, that they have a chance for success too. I think when you spread the wealth around, it’s good for everybody.

Perhaps it was a slip of tongue but I sure hope he means it because he’s right spreading the wealth around is good for everybody. It is a sound economic policy and a laudable goal to have. Income inequality is one of the biggest problems in the United States and it is one of the underlying causes of the current financial crisis. Currently we are at the widest income disparity in the US since 1928 and people wonder why we are facing another economic meltdown. The two are not uncorrelated.

Still, I find Obama’s character an impossible bridge to cross in terms of a vote but if Obama does intend to move in the direction of a progressive income redistribution tax policy, he will have my support once he’s President. I would still like to hear him utter the phrase “it’s time for a single payer health care system.” But I will admit I like hearing Obama get more ’socialist’. Perhaps he is redeemable though it is awfully hard to trust him. It’s pretty clear to me at least that Obama is going to win and win comfortably at that. So I will now move to consider what we might we expect from an Obama Presidency. I will be hopeful and suggest that if the above is any indication, Obama might yet suprise us all. I am still not voting for him but I dare say I hope Obama means what he said.

Return to Main

Here are eight articles from both the US and international media about the US Presidential race. Highlights of each article provided with a link to the full article.

Obama-McCain Gap Narrows
From Gallup.

The latest Gallup Poll Daily tracking report finds registered voters preferring Barack Obama (50%) to John McCain (43%) when asked who they would vote for if the presidential election were held today (October 12).

The good news for Senator McCain is that he has shaved four points off Senator Obama’s lead since Wednesday. The bad news is that he still trails by seven points. Rasmussen Reports tomorrow (Monday) will show a five point differential in favour of Obama. This pattern has been repeating itself for some time. Everytime Obama makes a strong move, there is a pull back. Still the gap over time has widen. It’s clear that many remain uncomfortable with Obama even if they at this time intend to vote for him. I expect the race to tighten but as of now the polls in the battleground states continue to favour Obama. My thesis remains intact but we will have at least five major battleground state polls out on Monday.

Palin’s Folksy Charm a Hit in Democratic Region
By Joe Hallett in the Columbus Dispatch.

Speaking in front of a barn surrounded by straw bales near the airport in Belmont County, Palin was cheered wildly by a crowd of 12,000 on a lovely autumn evening in a county that has supported Democratic nominees in the last four presidential elections.

Although Ohio’s eastern and southeastern Ohio River counties traditionally swing Democratic, DeWine said Palin’s social conservatism plays well with the area’s voters, including conservative Democrats.

“These are people who on virtually every issue agree with John McCain and Sarah Palin – from guns to abortion to mining,” DeWine said. “She connects with people.”

That was evident in interviews with supporters at the rally; many felt a kinship with the folksy Palin.

“She’s more a person like me,” said John Yager, 48, a planner-estimator from St. Clairsville. “She’s not a politician, she’s not a lawyer. She’s a person who worked her way up the chain, like I have.”

Virginia Rapp, 67, drove from Williamstown, W.Va., to see Palin because “she believes what I believe in – country first. I think she’s a down-to-earth person, and she’s all for this country.”

Belmont County is part of Ohio’s 29-county Appalachian region up for grabs in the election 22 days away. Obama’s running mate, Sen. Joe Biden of Delaware, will make a two-day bus tour through the region beginning Monday, and Obama visited last week.

Palin played up her small-town upbringing and political rise from mayor of Wasilla to Alaska governor. She compared Wasilla to St. Clairsville, saying, “I don’t care what anybody else says, I love small-town USA. You guys just get it.”

Democrats Out-Register Republicans in Swing States
By Alex Spillius in the UK Daily Telegraph.

A boom in voter registration across America has raised the possibility of a landslide victory for Senator Barack Obama, with an overwhelming majority of the nine million new voters believed to favour the Democratic candidate.

(more…)