Here is a look at some of the trends in the US Presidential election.

Advertising Spending
The Obama campaign is on pace to spend more on TV in the final 25 days of this election than John McCain’s entire $85 million matching-fund check. In the past four days, Obama has aired more than 25,000 commercials. The McCain campaign has aired about 10,000. Obama is outspending McCain 3 to 1 in key battleground states.

McCain, who took public financing, is on an $84m budget for these elections. Obama has no such constraints. He increased his spending on television advertising to $3m a day this week, and is expected to spend more as the election approaches. The McCain camp, in contrast, spent about $1.6m a day.

More from the UK Guardian.

Battleground States
My original list was 14 key battleground states: New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Indiana, Missouri, Virginia, North Carolina, Florida, New Mexico, Colorado and Nevada. This list is now down to 11 with the three states — New Hampshire, Pennsylvania and Michigan — removed all breaking for Senator Obama by double digit margins. These three states represent 42 Electoral College votes and in 2004 all voted for the Democratic candidate, Senator John Kerry. As such, the loss of these states is not necessarily fatal to Senator McCain’s chances. To win the White House, all McCain has to do is hold the states that George W. Bush won in 2004. The problem is that he isn’t.

Of the 11 battleground states left, nine were won by Bush in 2004 so in essence the 2008 election is being waged largely in GOP’s realm. The fact is that Obama is playing in McCain’s sandbox and that’s a big advantage for Obama. The other part is that the two states that did vote for Kerry in 2004 are now comfortably in the Obama column. I remove states from my list following two polls where the spread is ten points or more. The next poll for Wisconsin may drop the battleground state crop by one more. It’s even more complicated for Senator McCain because out of these 11 states, he only has one lead by five or more points, Indiana. Obama leads by five or more points in four states, two of which went for Bush in 2004.

If the above holds then Obama wins 329 Electoral College votes to McCain’s 209 Electoral College votes. The election isn’t by any means a done deal for Obama but the trend, the demographics, the news cycle and the message all favour Obama.

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In a minor blow to the dimming chances of the McCain campaign, an Alaska State legislative panel has found that Governor Sarah Palin unlawfully abused her authority in firing the state’s public safety commissioner.

From the New York Times:

A legislative committee investigating Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin has found she unlawfully abused her authority in firing the state’s public safety commissioner.

The investigative report concludes that a family grudge wasn’t the sole reason for firing Public Safety Commissioner Walter Monegan but says it likely was a contributing factor.

The Republican vice presidential nominee has been accused of firing a commissioner to settle a family dispute. Palin supporters have called the investigation politically motivated.

Monegan says he was dismissed as retribution for resisting pressure to fire a state trooper involved in a bitter divorce with the governor’s sister. Palin says Monegan was fired as part of a legitimate budget dispute.

No word as yet from the McCain campaign. The full report from the New York Times. A possible outcome is that Governor Palin might be censured by the Alaska legislature and even that is considered unlikely.

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The McCain campaign has released this Internet-only ad attacking Senator Obama over his alleged ties to the Association of Community Organizations for Reform Now (ACRON). ACORN is the nation’s largest community organization of low- and moderate-income families and it organizes some of the nation’s largest voter registration drives some of which are being attacked by the GOP as abetting voter registration fraud or other improprieties. Here’s Marc Ambinder’s take on ACORN’s legal troubles:

During the primaries, Barack Obama’s campaign paid $800,000 to a group called Citizens Services Inc., a subsidiary of ACORN, to help canvass voters in Ohio, Pennsylvania and Texas. In those states, the campaign, according to Democrats familiar with the contract, wanted to augment what its grassroots teams were doing on the ground and had the financial wherewithal to do so. Initially, in their report to the Federal Election Commission, the Obama campaign misstated the reason for the disbursement; they later filed an amended report.

25 days before the election, these payments are now a perception problem for the Obama campaign. ACORN’s last-minute surge of registration cards to election supervisors in more than a dozen states threatens to slow the processing of valid registrations. Though none of the fraudulent cards will result in any fraudulent votes being cast, ACORN’s practices are, some Democrats working with the Obama campaign concede, unhelpful in that they create the appearance of bad doings, and they take the shine off the 99% of new registrations that are valid. Obama, as a community organizer, has come in contact with ACORN. ACORN is a mainstay of progressive umbrella groups like America Votes. But there is no evidence of a conspiracy, only of massive interest in a massively important election.

By trumping up ACORN’s problems and by linking them to the Obama campaign, Republicans are building a foundation on top of which they can aggressively challenge voters on Election Day.

Democrats don’t believe the Republican charges will lead to a national public outcry, but they’re not going to ignore them.

Watch for a pushback to begin in the coming days.

My own view is that what matters to most voters are kitchen table issues and that ads such as these are largely ineffective or perhaps better put of limited value. Those who are likely to be swayed by this ad already oppose Obama and those that support Obama are likely to just dismiss this ad as a GOP ploy. Those of you who dislike Obama may like this ad, but the truth, even if the charges made in the ad are accurate, is this ad won’t change many minds. If McCain wants to win this election, he is going to have fight back on those kitchen table issues because those are what the voters care about most.

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While there are many reasons that I believe it likely, though not a certainty, that Senator Obama will become the 44th President of the United States, McCain’s proposal to tax health care benefits is one of the underlying reasons that the McCain campaign is in trouble.

Since August, Gallup has presented its tracking polls broken down by voter subgroups. With two months of data collected, some interesting trends emerge. One of the most troubling for the McCain campaign is the shift among seniors. McCain supporters had hoped older voters would offset his deficit among the under-30 crowd. Not only were elderly Americans more supportive of McCain, but they historically turn out in higher proportions.

Back in early August, McCain held an eight-point lead (47%-39%) among those age 65-plus. He also trailed by a small margin with the 30-49 group (-3) and those between 50-64 (-4). Among younger voters 18-29 years of age, McCain trailed by nearly 30 points (-29).

The most recent polling shows little movement in the three under-65 age groups. McCain “improves” to -26 points among the under-30 crowd, slips to -6 among those 30-49 and moves up to -2 with the 50-64 year olds. But it’s within the 65-plus crowd where the most significant movement occurs. McCain support among seniors slips from +8 to -1.

The net shift of nine points among seniors is the biggest move among any subgroup, meaning seniors account for a major part of McCain’s slump in the overall numbers. This is not welcome news for the McCain campaign following a lot of other negative polling trends in the past two weeks. I also started noticing this trend in the SUSA polls. In Wisconsin, Obama leads McCain among seniors 54% to 38%. Three weeks ago, McCain had a ten point lead among seniors.

I’ll break out more data on this lack of support for McCain among seniors in a post later. But I believe that his lack of support among seniors is tied to the McCain health care proposals which the Obama campaign has attacked mercilessly and adroitly. The reason I try to put up as many campaign ads as I do is so you can see the message that each campaign is trying to frame. While the McCain campaign wastes its resources on Ayers (not trivial but also not front and center, those who would be moved by Ayers are largely already in the McCain camp), the Obama campaign’s message has been on “kitchen table” issues such as the economy and health care. This tax of health care benefits is simply toxic to McCain’s chances.

This ad is a 30 spot and specific to the Nevada market but the Obama campaign is running similar ones in Ohio, Missouri and Florida.

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Finland’s ex-president Martti Ahtisaari was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize on Friday for his efforts to build a lasting peace from Africa and Asia to Europe and the Middle East. It is an excellent choice. Mr. Ahtissaari has been instrumental in brokering peace deals in the Balkans, in Indonesia and in the Horn of Africa. He is a tireless champion of peace and a firm believer in the liberal values of Western Civilization.

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A new 30 second spot from the McCain campaign. The spot calls Mr. Obama a liar, blames liberal Democrats for the sub-prime mortgage crisis, and, in giving them a traditionally Republican label, blames them for pushing “deregulation.” The campaign says the commercial will air nationally.

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I’m still struck by those who thought we could wait on the Paulson Plan. We are now in a financial contagion, a deflationary asset spiral of epic proportions. This in short will be the epic event of our lives, not the landing on the Moon, not the fall of the Berlin Wall, not September 11th but the Fall Market Crash of 2008. The question we face now is how do we save our economy?

It is yet another ugly day full of turmoil on the world’s financial markets. Here is a fast moving contagion spreading across the world’s financial markets affecting not just the capital markets, the credit markets but also now the prices of commodities. Oil has plunged below $85 a barrel. At first glance, you might see that as good news. It’s not because it is falling too quickly. Markets shouldn’t move so quickly either on the way up or the way the down. Oil is falling because demand is falling as economic activity contracts. Since its peak earlier this year, oil prices have fallen more than 40%. We seem to be in an asset deflationary spiral. It is these deflationary spirals that prolong economic downturns and turn them into depressions.

Here are reports from around the globe:

London
From the UK Guardian.

A wave of panic selling wiped over £100bn off the value of Britain’s biggest companies this morning, as recession fears sent stockmarkets worldwide tumbling.

Dealers in the City dumped shares when trading began this morning, sending the FTSE 100 plunging by over 10% in early trading. The index fell by 438.8 points, careering through the 4,000 mark for the first time in five years.

Markets across Europe were also in freefall, following yet another rout in Asia. After an hour, there was little sign of confidence returning, with the Footsie still 6% down at 9am. Banks and miners led the fallers, along with blue chip firms like British Airways and BT in a sign that the wider economy is being pulled into the crisis.

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Here are eight articles from both the US and international media about the US Presidential race. Highlights of each article provided with a link to the full article.

McCain Campaign Is at Odds Over Negative Attacks’ Scope
By Monica Langley and Elizabeth Holmes in the Wall Street Journal.

Top McCain campaign officials are grappling with how far to go with negative attacks on Sen. Barack Obama in the final weeks of what is turning into a come-from-behind effort.

Sen. John McCain has allowed a series of increasingly harsh broadsides in new campaign ads and in speeches by his wife, Cindy, and his running mate, Gov. Sarah Palin. But the Arizona Republican has rejected pleas from some advisers to launch attacks focusing on Sen. Obama’s former pastor, the Rev. Jeremiah Wright.

Some McCain campaign officials are becoming concerned about the hostility that attacks against Sen. Obama are whipping up among Republican supporters. During an internal conference call Thursday, campaign officials discussed how the tenor of the crowds has turned on the media and on Sen. Obama.

Hispanics Turn Cold Shoulder to McCain
By Ben Smith writing for Politico.

Polls show Obama winning the broadest support from Latino voters of any Democrat in a decade, while McCain is struggling to reach 30 percent, closer to Senator Bob Dole’s dismal 1996 result than to Bush’s historic 40% four years ago.

McCain seems to have wound up with the worst of both worlds: He appears to be getting no credit from Latino voters for his past support for immigration reform, while carrying the baggage of other Republicans’ hostility to illegal immigration.

And he’s been unable or unwilling to attack Obama—who was once thought to have taken a lethally liberal stance by supporting granting drivers licenses to illegal immigrants—from the right.

As October puts four states with large Hispanic populations – Florida, Colorado, Nevada, and New Mexico – at the center of the presidential contest, what appeared at first to be a possible strength for McCain has emerged as a profound weakness.

“I feel bad for McCain,” said Sam Rodriguez, the president of the National Hispanic Christian Leadership Conference and a prominent supporter of George W. Bush in 2004, who is neutral this year. “We find ourselves between the proverbial rock and the hard place. We really like John McCain. We really don’t like the Republican Party.”

I am surprised by it but yes Hispanics will be voting in droves for Senator Obama. The holdouts are as usual the Cubans in Florida and New Jersey who will vote for McCain. I was wrong. I really thought the gap would be 3:2 for Obama but it looks like at least 3:1 or even 4:1.

McCain’s Absence Vexes Nevada Backers
By J. Patrick Coolican and David McGrath Schwartz in the Las Vegas Sun.

Conservative activists, operatives and officeholders are anxious about John McCain’s Nevada campaign, fearing the Arizona senator lacks the ground operation and commitment to win Nevada.

Concern grew last week after McCain canceled a Nevada visit. A new Reno Gazette-Journal poll showed McCain trailing by 7 percentage points, with Democratic challenger Sen. Barack Obama competing in traditional Republican strongholds here.

“People I talk to wonder where the campaign is,” said Chuck Muth, a conservative activist who regularly speaks to dozens of other conservatives — north and south — through his newsletter.

I almost sense that McCain sees the writing on the wall and is just going through the motions. (more…)

Somali pirates are demanding an $8m ransom for the release of a Ukrainian ship they are holding off the coast off their country’s northern coast. The pirates appear to rule the seas around Somalia with impunity, while towns in the breakaway Puntland region have become the hub for many of their activities.

I’ll say this. The waters off Somalia’s coasts are rich with tuna and commercial fishing vessels from China, Taiwan, Korea, Japan and Russia are plundering their waters. I don’t condone piracy but I also don’t condone the theft of Somalia’s marine fisheries riches.

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Here is the Friday, October 10th, 2008 edition of what’s making news and interesting reads from around the world. Also please note that off to the left there are two widgets with updates on news from Asia and the world in a separate page: Around Asia & Around the World New Feeds.

The EU in Crisis
The club of 27 governments has been relegated to bit-player status in the drama as global central banks coordinate rate cuts and individual European nations move unilaterally to fortify their own banking systems. EU finance ministers this week rejected the idea of a region-wide bailout fund. Beyond impromptu joint efforts to aid Fortis, Dexia SA and other cross-border European banks, the EU is essentially stymied by its requirement that major decisions be unanimous and by its lack of a central financial regulator. More from Bloomberg News.

Iceland’s Kaupthing Blames Collapse on British Government
Kaupthing – among Britain’s 20 largest banks – became the third financial institution to be taken over by the Icelandic government this week, after Chancellor Alistair Darling seized its UK operation on Tuesday and ruled out help through the bail-out. Sigurdur Einarsson, the bank’s chairman, said the seizure of the UK arm directly led to the collapse of the entire group. “It is very sad, unfortunate and disappointing,” he said. Meanwhile a fierce diplomatic row broke out between the UK and Iceland with Prime Minister Gordon Brown accusing Iceland of “completely unacceptable” behaviour by not recompensing UK savers in the failed Icesave bank. Mr Brown said he is freezing assets of Icelandic companies in the UK as a result. More from the UK Telegraph.

Asian Markets Plunge on Wall Street Sell-Off
It seems like only yesterday I wrote something similiar. Stock markets in Asia plunged on Friday as investor sentiment was battered by the overnight rout on Wall Street, confirmation that Singapore has slid into recession and news of a financial-sector bankruptcy in Japan. Investors were reeling from the overnight developments on Wall Street, where the Dow Jones industrial average plummeted 7.3 percent, or 678 points, closing below the 9,000-mark for the first time since 2003. In Tokyo, the Nikkei 225 index — already shaken by a nearly 10 percent drop on Wednesday — slumped another 9.6 percent on Friday, closing at 8,276.43. More from the New York Times and from Euro News.

Oil Slides as OPEC Calls Emergency Meeting
Oil prices plunged below $85 a barrel on Thursday, the lowest level in a year, as Opec, the oil exporting countries’ cartel, called an emergency meeting to discuss reducing its crude production to halt the collapse in prices. The announcement came as crude oil futures in New York fell almost $5 to an intraday low of $84.19 a barrel, the lowest level since October 2007. In late afternoon trading in New York, oil was down $4.14 to $84.81 a barrel.

The drop suggested that the market was firmly focused on the impact of the financial crisis on global economic growth and energy demand next year, rather than in the cartel’s action. The cartel, which controls 40 per cent of the world’s oil output, said in an unusually frank statement that it was concerned about the “deteriorating economic conditions with contagion risks” and will meet in four weeks to tackle the problem. More from the Financial Times.

Gigantic Swiss Banks Hold Steady — For Now
Der Spiegel looks at how Switzerland’s banking sector is coping with the global financial meltdown.

Many are fearful of the consequences should UBS capsize. Switzerland’s gross domestic product totals 512 billion Swiss francs (€332.1 billion). UBS’s balance sheet adds up to 2 trillion Swiss francs (€1.3 trillion) — four times as much. Even Switzerland’s second biggest bank, Credit Suisse, oversees assets totalling 1.2 trillion Swiss francs (€778.4 billion). Together UBS and Credit Suisse have over 640 billion Swiss francs (€415.1 billion) in outstanding loans.

“We owe this crisis an uncomfortable revelation: UBS and Credit Suisse are too big for Switzerland,” wrote the ex-editor-in-chief of the German weekly Die Zeit, Roger de Weck, last week in the Swiss periodical Das Magazin. “If they went bankrupt, a flourishing country would be ruined.”

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