Archive for October 9th, 2008
Canadian Campaign Reader

Canada goes to the polls on Tuesday, October 14th and the election once believed to be a breeze for Stephen Harper’s Conservatives has tighten up considerably. We’ll start our coverage of the Great White North with a little satire from Rick Mercer.

And here’s Rick ripping the Liberal Party earlier this year for opposing Prime Minister Harper’s budget and yet allowing it to pass for fear of early elections which at that point they would have lost. Ah Canada, good luck next Tuesday.

The Rise and Fall of the Harper Majority
By William Johnson in the Globe and Mail.

What happened? When Stephen Harper called an early election Sept. 7, it looked like a sure thing for him and his party. The Conservatives were alone on the centre-right, while four parties divided the centre-left vote.

As to which leader would make the best prime minister, polls showed Mr. Harper exceeding the combined scores of the opposition leaders. Stéphane Dion, leading a party in debt and disarray, was even outpolled by Jack Layton.

Mr. Harper had led a steady government in good times, surprising those expecting a right-wing gorilla, and the financial crisis suggested returning an experienced leader, an economist to boot. But the Prime Minister’s greatest accomplishment was most unexpected: The outsider, the Westerner, had so disarmed Quebec’s nationalist animosity that secession, a prominent threat in 2005, had fallen off the agenda.

So why have the Conservatives fallen in the polls to within the margin of error of support for the Liberals?

The economy? Just a guess.

Tories show video to play up Dion’s language difficulties
By Tonda MacCharles in The Star.

Conservative leader Stephen Harper emerged shortly after a broadcast interview aired showing Liberal leader Stéphane Dion struggling in English to grasp a simple economic question, suggesting his answers showed he was unfit to lead the country.

Harper moved quickly to exploit what the Conservatives said is a damning, embarrassing piece of tape, in which Dion asked for three takes to answer what he would have done about the economy if he were prime minister now.

Harper told reporters that: “When you’re managing a trillion-and-a-half-dollar economy, you don’t get a chance to do do-overs, over and over again.”

Liberal leader Stéphane Dion is a native French speaker. He speaks heavily accented English.

The anti-Conservative vote
From the Globe and Mail.

What’s the best way for the Liberals or the NDP to try to consolidate anti-Conservative votes behind them in the campaign’s final days?

Gerald Caplan (former NDP campaign manager): We have come to a pretty pass indeed. The parties are stuck. The citizenry is stuck. There is no Mo.

This happened already midway through the campaign, with Stephen Harper higher, Stephane Dion lower, and Jack Layton about the same as now. Here we go again, right down to the wire. No one expected this.

Here’s the biggest mystery – why is the NDP stuck? Why can’t it seem to get beyond that rascally 20 per cent threshold that has been its nemesis forever? It’s been tantalizingly close to the Liberals, but can’t make the all-important great leap forward. Now, with Mr. Dion doing better – or more accurately, not embarrassing himself any longer – the gap between second and third seems to be growing again. And there’s no easy way out.

Harper Sharpens Attacks on Liberals to Stem Poll Slide
By Theophilos Argitis and Alexandre Deslongchamps for Bloomberg News.

Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper ramped up attacks on his main rival, Stephane Dion, in a bid to shift voter attention away from financial turmoil and stop his party’s slide in polls before elections on Oct. 14.

Harper and Finance Minister Jim Flaherty yesterday sought to reassure investors they’re “doing everything” necessary to help the economy cope with a credit freeze, after opposition parties said the Conservative Party government wasn’t doing enough. Harper also said a Liberal Party proposal to tax greenhouse gas emissions would trigger a bigger crisis.

“It comes down to a very simple choice,” Harper, 49, told reporters at a campaign stop in Richmond, British Columbia. “Do Canadians want, at a time of economic trouble, to take economic policies which common sense tells us will drive us into a recession, cost jobs, raise interest rates and make everybody’s lives a lot more difficult?”

The Tory Story

John Akpata of the Marijuana Party

I love Canada. I really do. I could do without Stephen Harper though.

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New NRA Ad — Hunter

The National Rifle Association has released this ad entitled “hunter.” The ad is a 45 second spot and it is running in Pennsylvania, Ohio, Indiana, Missouri, Colorado and Nevada.

There is also a website with more information: Gun Ban Obama.

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Rasmussen Reports Michigan Poll — No Wonder McCain Pulled Out, It’s All Obama

A new poll in Michigan (link is to US Census demographic data) from Rasmussen Reports confirms why Senator McCain pulled his campaign out of Michigan. In the Wolverine State, Senator Obama leads 56% to 40%, a stunning 16 point margin.

Just days after John McCain scaled back his campaign in Michigan, a new Rasmussen Reports survey of voters there shows Barack Obama with a 16-point lead on his Republican opponent.

Obama leads McCain 56% to 40% in the survey taken Wednesday night. A month ago, the Democrat was ahead by seven points, 51% to 44%.

Michigan’s 17 Electoral College votes have gone to the Democratic candidates in the last four presidential elections.

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Rasmussen Reports Indiana Poll — McCain Breaking Away

On August 23rd, Senator McCain led in Indiana (link is to US Census demograghic data) by six points. On September 19th, a Rasmussen Reports poll found that McCain’s lead was down to two points. On September 30th, a SUSA poll gave McCain a still tight three point lead. Today’s poll from Rasmussen Reports suggests McCain may be ‘breaking away’ in the Hoosier State. McCain leads Senator Obama, 50% to 43%. This represents McCain’s best showing in the so-called battleground states.

John McCain has pulled to a solid seven-point lead over Barack Obama in Indiana. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the state finds McCain leading 50% to 43%.

Last month, McCain had just a two-percentage-point lead in Indiana, which has been one of the most reliably Republican states in the nation. Parts of northwestern Indiana, however, are effectively suburbs of Chicago, Obama’s home base. During the Indiana Primary, strong turnout in this region almost enabled Obama to pull off an upset victory.

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New RNC Ad — The Chicago Way

The Republican National Committee released this ad today on behalf of the McCain campaign touching on Senator Obama’s Chicago political roots and his connection to a number of unsavory characters. The ad is a 30 spot and will run nationally.

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Dow Plunges 679 Points in Last Hour of Trading

US stocks plunged in the final hour of trading Thursday, sending the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) down 679 points — off 7.3% on the day — to its lowest level in five years. The DJIA closed at 8,579.19. More from the New York Times:

Stocks fell sharply in late afternoon trading in New York on Thursday as concerns about the global financial system mounted and investors priced in a deep recession.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 stock index was down nearly 7.6 percent and the Dow Jones industrial average was down 678.91 points, or about 7.3 percent, both posting one of their worst days in post-war history. The Nasdaq composite was down 5.4 percent.

Wells Fargo, Morgan Stanley and other bank stocks were among the biggest losers and the financial sector as a whole was down nearly 11 percent in late afternoon trading. But the major indexes were also pulled down by big drops in stocks like Exxon Mobil, General Electric and Chevron.

The sell-off suggests investors are pricing in a much deeper recession than the markets had previously thought was likely. New data released on Thursday also showed that retail investors were withdrawing tens of billions of dollars from stock mutual funds — a sign that the panic on Wall Street was spreading.

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Rasmussen Reports New Jersey Poll — Obama by Eight

Perhaps it is just an outlier but perhaps not so it’s well worth monitoring but Senator Obama has seen his lead narrow in the Garden State. In New Jersey (link to US Census Bureau Demographic Quick Facts), Senator Obama’s lead has narrowed to eight points from 13 over the past three weeks. Senator McCain hasn’t gained any, his support has remained constant at 42% but rather Obama’s poll numbers fell from 55% to 50%. The question is why? Are voters having second thoughts about Senator Obama? It’s not a unfamiliar pattern. Voters have warmed up to Obama only to then express doubts and pull back. The other question is this pool of doubters enought to tip the election? Probably not in New Jersey but elsewhere, it’s possible.

Barack Obama is now ahead in every state won by John Kerry four years ago, and New Jersey is no exception.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in New Jersey finds Obama attracting 50% of the vote while McCain earns just 42%. That’s similar to results from a month ago and the month before that.

The economy is the top issue of Election 2008, and just eight percent (8%) of New Jersey voters rate the nation’s economic condition as good or excellent. Sixty-seven percent (67%) say it’s poor. Only four percent (4%) believe things are getting better while 86% say they are getting worse.

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New McCain Ad — Stand

The McCain campaign has released a new ad. It is a 45 second spot and Internet-only. They should produce a 30 second spot and air it on television. It’s likely their best ad in some time. It’s a positive ad and rattles off a series of reasons why people (in this case the younger set) stand with John McCain.

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Rasmussen Reports Florida Poll — McCain Inches Back

Polls over the past two weeks have all pointed to Senator McCain’s lead in Florida (link to US Census demographic data) evaporating. Two weeks ago, McCain led by five points. Last week, it was a dead heat tied at 47% apiece. Just on Monday though, Senator Obama led by seven, 52% to 45%. Today’s poll from Rasmussen Reports fnds Obama still leading but only by three points, 50% to 47%. It’s probably the best news all week for the McCain campaign.

Barack Obama now leads John McCain 50% to 47% in Florida, according to the latest Rasmussen Reports survey in the state.

This is the second straight October poll to show Obama with a modest advantage in Florida. That’s quite a change from September when five statewide polls found McCain ahead or tied each time.

Still, the latest polling shows a tighter race than the seven-point advantage enjoyed by Obama last Sunday.

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SUSA North Carolina Poll — McCain By Three

The latest poll for North Carolina (link is to US Census demographic data) from Survey USA gives Senator McCain a narrow three point lead over Senator Obama, 49% to 46%. This poll is slight change from last week’s Rasmussen Reports poll that gave Obama lead by three points. As both are within the margin of error, the race in the Tar Heel State remains a dead heat.

If an election for President of the United States in North Carolina were held today, just under four weeks till votes are counted, Republican John McCain edges Democrat Barack Obama, or possibly does not, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted for WTVD-TV Raleigh. The contest today stands at McCain 49%, Obama 46%, if black turnout is 20% on Election Day, as SurveyUSA expects and as SurveyUSA herein reports. However, if black turnout increases by 10%, to 22% of the electorate, the world looks different.

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