A Rasmussen Reports poll in Missouri (link is to US Census demographic data) shows the race in the Show Me state a dead heat with a narrow three point lead for Senator Obama over Senator McCain, 50% to 47% with minor support for both Bob Barr and Ralph Nader. Significantly, it represents the first lead in Missouri for Obama. As recently as last week, McCain held a two point advantage and a month ago, he led by six.
Barack Obama has pulled ahead of John McCain in Missouri.
The latest Fox News/Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the state shows Obama with 50% of the vote while McCain attracts 47%. Ralph Nader and Bob Barr pick up one percent (1%) each, and two percent (2%) are undecided.
These results are quite a change from a month ago when McCain was up by six points. However, over that month, the national trends and virtually all statewide polling has swung significantly in Obama’s direction.
In the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll, McCain enjoyed a modest national lead until just before the Lehman Brothers collapse precipitated the ongoing Wall Street debacle. Since then, Obama has gained steadily and has been at the 50% mark or above every day for over a week.
In Missouri, Obama is supported by 88% of Democrats and holds an 11-point advantage among unaffiliated voters. Ninety-three percent (93%) of Republicans say they’ll vote for McCain.
Obama leads by six among women but trails by a point among men. McCain is currently viewed favorably by 56% of Missouri voters, Obama by 55%. Those numbers reflect a two-point decline for McCain over the past month and a two-point gain for Obama.
Forty-nine percent (49%) of voters in Missouri say they trust Obama more on economic issues while 46% place their trust in McCain. The economy is the top issue for 49% of the state’s voters.
National security ranks a distant second and is the top issue for just 20% of Missouri voters. John McCain is trusted more than Obama on this topic.
Forty-four percent (44%) of Missouri voters would be extremely or very comfortable with Obama as President. Forty percent (40%) say the same about McCain.
strong>Takeaways
Missouri has 11 electoral votes and is considered a battleground state. George W. Bush won Missouri in 2004 by 7.2% and in 2000 by 3.3%. The internals show McCain leading among men by one point and trailing by six among women. That’s quite the reversal from last week when McCain trailed narrowly among women but led by seven among men.Missouri is also considered a bellweather state, that is, it picks winners. As Missouri goes, so goes the nation. Missouri last voted for the losing candidate in 1956, the only time it has done so since 1904. It seems that we are on the cusp of an Obama landslide in the Electoral College and perhaps even in the popular vote. My thesis for the past week has been that the election turned on September 15th when Lehman Brothers failed and AIG was rescued setting off the financial firestorm. These events played to Obama’s advantage and his campaign has exploited the issue adroitly.