Polls over the past two weeks have all pointed to Senator McCain’s lead in Florida (link to US Census demographic data) evaporating. Two weeks ago, McCain led by five points. Last week, it was a dead heat tied at 47% apiece. Today, Senator Obama leads by seven, 52% to 45%.
I’ll restate my current thesis, operative now for about a week, but we are on the cusp of an Obama landslide in the Electoral College and perhaps one in the popular vote. The race turned decisively beginning on September 15th with the collapse of Lehman Brothers and the rescue of AIG. These events set off a financial firestorm that played well to the Obama campaign meme that McCain was more of the same. The Obama campaign has run much stronger and more consistent ads hitting on the economic crisis and it has resonated with voters across the country and most especially in a number of battleground states where McCain leads have vanished and become solid Obama leads.
Barack Obama has pulled ahead to his biggest lead yet over John McCain in Florida. The latest Fox News/Rasmussen Reports survey of the state finds the Democrat ahead 52% to 45%.
Last week, the race was tied at 47%. Just one week prior, McCain had a five percentage point lead.
McCain is viewed favorably by 56% of voters and unfavorably by 43%. Obama’s ratings are 54% favorable, 43% unfavorable.
As for which candidate voters trust more, both men earn 47% support. Obama edges out McCain 51% to 46% on handling the economy and jobs, while McCain has a 51% to 44% advantage on national security and the war on terrorism.
The latest poll shows Obama dominating his opponent among unaffiliated voters in the state, 59% to 32%. McCain leads 54% to 43% among white voters in Florida, while Obama has a 67% to 33% lead among Hispanic voters.
While over a third (34%) of Florida voters say they would be extremely comfortable with Obama as president, just 27% say that of McCain. However, more voters (41%) say they would not be at all comfortable with Obama in the White House than McCain (37%).Florida voters are much more comfortable with Joe Biden than Sarah Palin for the Vice Presidency. While 38% say they would be extremely comfortable with Biden in office, 29% say that about Palin. Nearly half of voters (46%) say they would not be comfortable at all with Palin as VP, while just 28% say that about Biden.
Takeaways
The trend is noticeably in Obama’s direction and it seems pretty clear that the implosion of the nation’s financial sector has given Obama the opportunity to separate himself from McCain across the board. If McCain not stem the tide, it is increasingly evident that Obama will cruise to a comfortable margin in the Electoral College. McCain can not afford to lose Florida.
Florida has 27 Electoral College votes. Bush carried the state in 2004 by a five point margin.