The McCain campaign released a new ad tonight focused on the loss of US manufacturing jobs and blaming their loss on Democratic policies. I am not sure that’s entirely accurate given Republican policies since the Reagan Administration. The ad is a 30 second spot and running in battleground states of Ohio, Missouri and Pennsylvania (which is as of right now in the leaning Obama column and outside the margin of error). This ad was the Michigan version which I am not sure if it is running since McCain pulled out of the state late last week.

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With just four weeks and a few days to go before election day, it is increasingly evident that Senator Obama will redraw the basic structure that has held firm in the United States since the realignment election of 1968. The Obama campaign has long asserted that Senator Obama would make significant inroads into the near Electoral lock that the GOP has enjoyed the past 40 years. In the end, this now seems probable though not entirely for the reasons that Obama first articulated.

Since 1860, the nation’s electoral politics can be painted with a very wide brush. In the period from 1860 to 1932, a period of 72 years, the GOP dominated national politics winning all but four of the Presidential elections. Even then, the Democrats’ victories in this period were narrow ones. In 1884, Grover Cleveland won the Presidency carrying the popular vote by just 0.3% and managing to win three until then reliably Republican states in the northeast — New York, New Jersey and Connecticut. In 1912, Woodrow Wilson would win the White House in a Electoral College landslide (he won 40 out of 48 states and 435 Electoral votes out of a possible 531) despite winning just 41.8% of the popular vote. Of course, Wilson won because the Republican party split with former President Teddy Roosevelt forming a third party to run against the incumbent William Howard Taft. The election of 1912 is the only time that a major party would finish third. In 1916, Wilson would narrowly win re-election with 277 Electoral College votes to Charles Evans Hughes’ 254 Electoral College votes based on just a 2.9% margin in the popular vote. For most of this period, the South was Democratic and the rest of the country largely Republican. Democratic wins depended on running candidates from the conservative wing of the party and candidates who could pull away a few states from the GOP in the northeast. The more successful Democratic candidates were Samuel Tilden from New York in 1876 (a disputed election to say the least) and then Cleveland also from New York and Wilson from New Jersey. (more…)

The Obama campaign today released this ad based on yesterday’s jobs report that showed 159,000 jobs lost in September. This ad is a 45 second spot and it is Internet-only.

I am also bemused by the fact that the PUMA blogs seem to think Obama is destined to lose but if Obama wins it will be because of fraud. Both assertions are laughable. As of today, the Electoral College vote without leaners is Obama/Biden 353 versus McCain/Palin 185. This is pretty much the best case scenario for the Obama campaign unless he also wins the 11 Electoral College votes each from Missouri and Indiana which for now lean McCain. The facts are the facts. This blog is part of the reality-based community and if you care delude yourself into thinking that Obama is unelectable or if that he wins it is solely due to fraud then you’re hopelessly lost and a waste of my time.

McCain is running against not just Obama but the economy as well and that’s not a good place to be right now. Can McCain turn things around? Possibly but his window of opportunity probably is gone in the next week to ten days. Out of the 13 current battleground states as of this writing, Obama is on track to win eleven. And yet, the hard core Clinton faction cling to illusions no longer grounded in reality. The election changed on September 15th when Lehman Brothers failed. It is ironic that the failure of one of Obama’s top ten financial donors would be the catalyst of his lead but that’s politics. Perceptions sometimes matter more than reality. And the perception is that the GOP and McCain by extension are to blame for the nation’s financial crisis. The reality is, of course, far more complicated. If you can’t see this, then you are just a petulant clown who has no business misleading others into thinking otherwise.

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Another day, another pitiful ad from the McCain campaign. This ad is a 30 second spot.

Here’s a clue Johnny Boy, look at at these ads from Right Change. If you want to win, and I am not sure you do, those are the types of ads that you need to run, not the above nonsense.

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The Obama campaign released a new ad hitting McCain over his healthcare proposals. The ad is a 30 second spot and running in Virginia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Ohio and Florida.

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Here are eight articles from both the US and international media about the US Presidential race. Highlights of each article provided with a link to the full article.

McCain Plans Fiercer Strategy Against Obama
No author noted in the San Jose Mercury News.

Sen. John McCain and his Republican allies are readying a newly aggressive assault on Sen. Barack Obama’s character, believing that to win in November they must shift the conversation back to questions about the Democrat’s judgment, honesty and personal associations, several top Republicans said.

With just a month to go until Election Day, McCain’s team has decided that its emphasis on the senator’s biography as a war hero, experienced lawmaker and straight-talking maverick is insufficient to close a growing gap with Obama. The Republican’s campaign also is eager to move the conversation away from the economy, an issue that strongly favors Obama and has helped him to a lead in many recent polls.

“We’re going to get a little tougher,” a senior Republican operative said, indicating that a fresh batch of TV ads are coming. “We’ve got to question this guy’s associations. Very soon. There’s no question that we have to change the subject here,” said the operative, who was not authorized to discuss strategy and spoke on the condition of anonymity.

In Florida’s Economic Pain, Obama Gains Ground
By Damien Cave in the New York Times.

Jim Piccillo lost his job as a bank vice president in August, applied for food stamps to support his two young daughters and swore off a life of loyalty to the Republican Party. He now volunteers here in Pasco County for Senator Barack Obama of Illinois.

Madeline Aquanno’s change of heart came more recently. Two weeks ago, she said, she had planned to vote for Senator John McCain of Arizona, the Republican, who impressed her with his knowledge of the world. But as the economy began to scare her more than terrorism, she reconsidered.

“Obama is more for the people,” she said, near the pool at her middle-class retirement community in Broward County. “I’m worried about the jobs that are being lost, for my son, my daughter, my granddaughter. You have to look down the line.”

Why McCain Goes Easy on Fannie Mae and the Community Redevelopment Act (CRA)
By James Pethokoukis in US News & World Report.

Here is the big question of the moment that many GOPers are asking: Why is John McCain not tearing into Barack Obama and the Dems on the huge role of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and the Community Reinvestment Act in the financial crisis on Wall Street? In fact, the biggest criticism by conservatives of Sarah Palin’s debate performance last night was that she had the opportunity to talk about Fannie/Freddie and the CRA but instead criticized the role of “predatory lenders.”

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