The Judicial Confirmation Network today release a new campaign ad. It is a 60 second spot and argues against Senator Obama based on his past associations with Tony Rezko, William Ayers and the Reverend Jeremiah Wright. The ad is part of a $1 million first phase of a nationwide grassroots campaign, which includes television ads in national and targeted markets.
Over the past two-three weeks, Senator McCain’s lead over Senator Obama has narrowed from low double digits to high single digits reflecting a trend towards seen in many states across the nation. This week’s Survey USA (SUSA) poll in Georgia (link is to US Census demographic data) points to a narrowing but still comfortable lead for Senator McCain over Senator Obama. McCain leads 52% to 44%. McCain’s strong lead among men has evaporated, again reflecting a trend seen elsewhere. This poll also found minimal support for third party candidates including native son Bob Barr and native daughter Cynthia McKinney.
If an election for President of the United States in Georgia were held today, 09/30/08, 35 days until votes are counted, Republican John McCain would defeat Democrat Barack Obama 52% to 44%, according to this latest SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for WXIA-TV Atlanta and WMAZ-TV Macon. Compared to a SurveyUSA poll released 13 days ago, when McCain led by 16 points, Obama is up 3 points and McCain is down 5. The movement to Obama at the top of the ticket is applying torque to the contest for US Senate in Georgia, new results for which are reported separately today by SurveyUSA.
Significant movement to Obama among three key groups:
– Among men, McCain had led by 18, now leads by 4, a 14-point movement toward Obama. (Conversely, among women, there is nearly no movement.)
– Among voters younger than Barack Obama, McCain had led by 8, now leads by 1, a 7-point swing toward Obama. Among voters with household incomes < $50K, McCain had led by 1, now trails by 9, a 10-point swing toward Obama.
-- In greater Atlanta, Obama had led by 5, now leads by 12; in Northwest Georgia, McCain had led by 46, now leads by 31. In the southern and eastern portions of the state, McCain had led by 11, now leads by 7.
Early and absentee voting began in Georgia on 09/22/08. Among the 9% of Georgia voters who say they have already voted, Obama leads by 29 points; among those who have not yet voted, McCain leads by 12.
The above ad is a 30 second spot featuring Senator McCain addressing the political crisis in Washington. The ad below is a Spanish-language ad. It is also a 30 second spot. The ad hits Obama over immigration reform and Biden over his comments that Mexico is “dysfunctional society”. Biden’s comments on Mexico are from December 2, 2007.
Joe Biden shared his views on illegal immigration with an Iowa crowd, saying that the solution starts with big changes in the Mexican economy.
“They’re being irresponsible. This is the second-wealthiest nation in the hemisphere – we’re not talking about Sierra Leone,” the Democratic presidential candidate said. “This is a dysfunctional society.”
Actually Joe, Mexico is the fourth wealthiest nation in the hemisphere as measured by total GDP. You’re forgetting Canada and Brazil both of which are larger economies and wealthier on a per capita basis. And if measured on a per capita basis, then Mexico also ranks below Bermuda, Costa Rica, Chile, Barbados, Aruba, Argentina, Uruguay, Puerto Rico, the Nederland Antilles, the Bahamas and the Falklands. Ah, Joe, so close and yet so far.
The Republican National Committee has released this Internet-only ad highlighting Obama’s questionable past associations. The ad is a 75 second spot.
In Tennessee (link is to US Census demographic data), the latest poll from Rasmussen Reports finds Senator McCain leading Senator Obama by a solid double digit margin of 19 points. McCain leads 58% to 39% in the Volunteer state.
John McCain holds a19-point lead over Barack Obama in Tennessee, according to a new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of voters in the state.
McCain, who has led by double digits in the Volunteer State for months, is now ahead of his Democratic rival 58% to 39%. Last month he led 56% to 32%. The closest Obama has even been is 15 points in June.
Ninety-five percent (95%) of Tennessee Republicans back the GOP candidate while Obama has the support of 86% of the state’s Democrats. Unaffiliated voters favor McCain by a solid margin.
Senator McCain still enjoys a solid nine point lead in the nation’s second most populous state that offers 34 electoral vote. The latest Rasmussen Reports poll in the Lone Star state shows Senator McCain maintaining his nine point margin that he has held over Senator Obama over the past few months. McCain leads in Texas 52% to 43%.
Still no change in the Texas presidential race, as John McCain continues to lead Barack Obama by nine percentage points. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the state finds McCain ahead 52% to 43% (see crosstabs).
The latest numbers mark the fourth straight month the Republican has held a nine-point lead in the Lone Star State. The closest match-up between the nominees was back in May, when Obama trailed by just six points. Texas has voted for the Republican candidate in every election for the past 28 years. At the time this poll was released, Texas was rated as a “Safely Republican” in the Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator.
While McCain is leading in Texas, Obama has held a five or six-point lead nationally for nearly a week in the daily Presidential Tracking Poll.
The Obama campaign released this Internet-only ad today. The ad is a 30 second spot and returns to the theme that McCain is more of the same.
In Mississippi (link is to US Census demographic data), Senator McCain leads Senator Obama 52% to 44%, an eight point margin, in the latest poll from Rasmussen Reports. In the previous poll in August, McCain led by 13.
John McCain now leads Barack Obama 52% to 44% in Mississippi, according to a new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the state. In August, McCain was ahead 54% to 41%.
But the race was even closer in May and June, when McCain led by six.
Mississippi has cast its six Electoral College votes for the Republican candidate in the last seven consecutive presidential elections. In 2004, President Bush easily won the state by a 59% to 40% margin.
“Let’s not call it a bailout. Let’s call it a rescue,” said Republican John McCain.
Democratic rival Barack Obama said, “This is no longer just a Wall Street crisis — it’s an American crisis, and it’s the American economy that needs this rescue plan.”
It’s pretty evident from published reports and reading the blogs that most Americans oppose the Paulson Plan. Reasons vary depending on where people stand in the political spectrum but conservatives seem to oppose the bill on grounds that it is akin to “socialism” while liberals seem to oppose the bill on mistrust of President Bush. There are also a myriad of other objections ranging that this bill is a bailout of Wall Street tycoons to an agrument that the bill doesn’t do anything to help struggling households with their mortgages to the irresponsible insertion of ancillary pet projects by lawmakers. But perhaps more troubling and worrisome is a lack of understanding of what is actually happening in the capital and credit markets, not just in the United States but globally. It seems many seem to content to dance on an erupting volcano.
I think it important to first note why in any financial crisis, time is of the essence. The economy is the sum of every interaction that happens or fails to happen. Interactions that happen lead to economic growth, those that don’t lead to a retrenchment. When the normal everyday flow of capital and credit is interrupted, then the ripple effect can be swift and long-lasting. The most commonly used metaphor for a financial crisis is that of a wildfire. It’s an apt metaphor. In the past two weeks since Lehman Brothers failed, the following financial institutions have also failed prompting a rescue by the regulatory authorities: American International Group (one the largest global insurers) Wachovia and Washington Mutual in the US, Fortis (a Dutch-Belgian bank and insurance giant — its rescue cost $16 billion), Daxia (an French-Belguim bank that required a $9 billion USD rescue) and Bradford & Bingley (a mortgage lender in the UK). None of these are small banks. And many more are at risk in the near-term.
Capital Markets
Capital markets are the mechanism that allows the exchange of money commonly referred to as capital between companies and investors, companies and banks, and investors and banks as each party seeks to raise capital or put capital to work. Capital markets form the conduit for individuals to pool their money and invest in business opportunities around the world.
While businesses generally rely on sales and normal business operations to keep their businesses going and on profits to underwrite new growth, there are times when a company might need additional capital — perhaps to expand operations or to cover operating losses. The capital markets are where that money is raised through intial public offerings (IPOs) and follow-on offerings. Here capital is traded for a stake in ownership.
Credit Markets
The credit market is, of course, generally the loan market. The term “credit market” refers really to the market where financial instruments that embrace credit risk are traded.
In addition to traditional instruments such as loans, corporate bonds, and commercial paper (CP), the credit market now includes securitized products in which various credit risks have been pooled and credit derivatives whose underlying assets encompass credit risks. In the current financial crisis, a series a bad bets by large investment banks on subprime mortgage credit derivatives are resposnible for their downfall but it is important to note that even healthy banks that didn’t engage in these trades have also come under pressure. For example, Goldman Sachs did not trade in these risky financial instruments and yet was forced last week to change its legal status from investment bank to a bank holding company as well as secure additional capital from Warren Buffet and through a private placement to shore up its own liquidity.
The credit markets also enable individuals to buy a home, pay for college, or start a business. Individuals and businesses can take a loan from a bank that lends its depositors’ money to borrowers in exchange for the promise of future repayment plus interest.
A new poll from Quinnipiac University finds that support for Senator Obama in the three critical battleground states of Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania has widen to seven points or more in each state.
Obama 49 – McCain 43 pre-debate; Obama 51 – McCain 43 post-debate; OHIO: Obama 49 – McCain 42 pre-debate; Obama 50 – McCain 42 post-debate; PENNSYLVANIA: Obama 49 – McCain 43 pre-debate; Obama 54 – McCain 39 post-debate Friday’s presidential debate, Gov. Sarah Palin’s sagging favorability and more voter confidence in Sen. Barack Obama’s ability to handle the economy are propelling the Democrat to wider likely voter leads over Republican John McCain in Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania, according to simultaneous Quinnipiac University Swing State polls released today.
No one has been elected President since 1960 without taking two of these three largest swing states in the Electoral College. Results from the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe- ack) University polls conducted before and after the debate show:
– Florida: Obama up 49 – 43 percent pre-debate and 51 – 43 percent post-debate;
– Ohio: Obama up 49 – 42 percent pre-debate and 50 – 42 percent post-debate;
– Pennsylvania: Obama ahead 49 – 43 percent pre-debate and 54 – 39 percent post-debate. Pre-debate surveys ended at 8 p.m. Friday with post-debate surveys Saturday-Monday.
More than 84 percent of voters in each state say the debate did not change their mind. But by margins of 13 to 17 percent, voters in each state say Obama did a better job in the debate. And by margins of 15 to 27 percent, independent voters in each state say Obama won