The Obama campaign released this ad touting his coal industry ties in an attempt to blunt Senator Biden’s comments last week that seem to run contrary to the official Obama position. The ad is a 30 second spot.
Polls over the last two weeks have all pointed to Senator McCain leading in Florida (link to US Census demographic data) but with his lead narrowing. Last Friday, a Rasmussen Reports first pointed to this trend and today’s Survey USA poll confirms that finding. In both polls, McCain leads by one but that’s well within the margin of error. Effectively the race is a dead heat in a state that McCain must win.
In an election for President of the United States in Florida today, 09/29/08, three weeks till early voting begins, Democrat Barack Obama and Republican John McCain tie, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted for WFLA-TV Tampa, WFOR-TV Miami, WKRG-TV Mobile-Pensacola, and WFTX-TV Cape Coral. McCain gets 48% today, Obama 47%, an outcome within the survey’s margin of sampling error. McCain’s nominal 1-point advantage may or may not have statistical significance; the contest should be reported as even. Compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll released 09/18/08, McCain has lost 11 points among Florida men. McCain had led by 10 among men, now trails by 1. Obama is up in Southeast Florida, which includes Miami and Fort Lauderdale, where Obama had led by 12, but now leads by 22. McCain is up in Central Florida, which includes Orlando, where McCain and Obama had been tied, but McCain now leads by 14. In Southwest Florida, which includes Tampa, McCain had let by 14, now leads by 4. There was important movement among college grads, where McCain had led by 10, now trails by 4; among lower-income voters, where Obama had led by 3, now leads by 10; and among voters older than John McCain, where McCain had led by 24, now leads by 8.
I will be updating my favorability index later tonight but in the meantime, here is the swing state polling from Rasmussen Reports for Colorado, Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Virginia (the links are to US Census Bureau demographic data for each state). These results show a clear and sustained trend for Obama across the board.
Polling this week in Colorado, Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Virginia shows that Barack Obama has gained a net 3 to 5 percentage points in each state compared to the previous Fox News/ Rasmussen Reports poll.
In Pennsylvania, Obama now leads by eight percentage points, 50% to 42%.
In Virginia, it’s Obama 50% and McCain 47%.
The candidates are within a single point of each other in Colorado (Obama 49%, McCain 48%), Florida (Obama 47%, McCain 47%), and Ohio (McCain 48% Obama 47%)
“Clearly, there was something lacking in the leadership here.” Republican Representative Eric Cantor
This is on the 133 Republicans and 95 Democrats who today voted against all reason for a prudent bill and a timely rescue. The word time is rather important. It is what we don’t have. Financial crisises spread like wildfire if not contained and this one is spreading like no tomorrow. Yesterday, the Belgian-Dutch banking and insurance giant Fortis was rescued with a partial nationalisation. Wachovia, the nation’s fasting growing bank, was sold to Citibank, the nation’s largest bank. Other financial institutions remain at risk. Credit markets, whose turmoil helped feed the stock market’s recent angst, only froze up further amid the growing belief that the country is headed into a spreading credit and economic crisis.
Liquidity is to the economy what oxygen is to life.
Today the government failed to provide that liquidity, and thus slowly or perhaps rapidly, economic life will grind to a halt. As Paul Krugman put it we are “a banana republic with nukes.” Let me also add that we are now in a deflationary asset spiral. If you think inflation is bad, wait until you see what havoc deflation can wreck. Deflation is what caused the Great Depression. And for those who thought that this was a bad bill due to x, y or z, what you don’t understand is that time runs against us. One can’t just sit and debate and run a trade of horses because markets are global, markets are electronic, markets are round the clock and because markets move fast with each economic transaction that occurs or fails to occur. We’re about to get a not so invisible kick in the you know what.
The New York Times story on the failure of Congress.
In a moment of historic import in the Capitol and on Wall Street, the House of Representatives voted on Monday to reject a $700 billion rescue of the financial industry. The vote came in stunning defiance of President Bush and Congressional leaders of both parties, who said the bailout was needed to prevent a widespread financial collapse.
The vote against the measure was 228 to 205, with 133 Republicans joining 95 Democrats in opposition. The bill was backed by 140 Democrats and 65 Republicans.
Supporters vowed to try to bring the rescue package up for consideration again as soon as possible, perhaps late Wednesday or Thursday, but there were no definite plans to do so.
Stock markets plunged as it appeared that the measure would go down to defeat, and kept slumping into the afternoon when that appearance became a reality. By late afternoon the Dow industrials had fallen more than 5 percent, and other indexes even more sharply. Oil prices fell steeply on fears of a global recession; investors bid up prices of Treasury securities and gold in a flight to safety. House leaders pushing for the package kept the voting period open for some 40 minutes past the allotted time, trying to convert “no” votes by pointing to damage being done to the markets, but to no avail.
Here are ten articles from both the US and international media about the US Presidential race. Highlights of each article provided with a link to the full article.
Barack Obama’s Team Believes He Can Win by a Landslide
By Tim Shipman in the UK Telegraph.
Barack Obama’s senior aides believe he is on course for a landslide election victory over John McCain and will comfortably exceed most current predictions in the race for the White House. Their optimism, which is said to be shared by the Democratic candidate himself, is based on information from private polling and on faith in the powerful political organisation he has built in the key swing states.
Insiders say that Mr Obama’s apparent calm through an unusually turbulent election season is because he believes that his strength among first time voters in several key states has been underestimated, both by the media and by the Republican Party.
For the First Time, There is a Clear Front-Runner
By John Ibittson of Toronto’s Globe and Mail.
The most recent survey, by Gallup Tracking, has Mr. Obama eight points up. And while many pundits, including this one, thought Mr. McCain outperformed Mr. Obama during the foreign-policy part of Friday night’s televised debate, viewers disagreed.
Three separate snap polls – by CBS, CNN/Opinion Research and USA Today/Gallup – confirmed that it was actually Mr. Obama’s night.
In the USA Today/Gallup survey, for example, 46 per cent of those polled thought Mr. Obama had outperformed Mr. McCain, while 34 per cent thought the opposite.
Fifty-two per cent picked Mr. Obama, when they were asked which candidate offered the best proposals for change to solve the country’s problems. Thirty-five per cent picked Mr. McCain.
Two things seem to be at work. First, the economy – which was always the No. 1 issue in this campaign – has become elephantine in proportion.
And secondly, Mr. McCain, who has always been vulnerable on this issue, did himself no good last week by suspending his campaign and flying to Washington, only to un-suspend it so that he could fly to Mississippi for Friday’s debate.
In many respects, national opinion polls are meaningless, because the election will be decided in a dozen or so key battleground states.
The latter is my main thesis but it is clear that the trend is in Obama’s direction.
Undecideds Think It Over
By Douglas Belkin in the Wall Street Journal.
With much of the country clumped into red or blue states, the votes of working-class white suburbanites like Mr. Sullivan in such swing states as Ohio, Michigan and Pennsylvania could decide this year’s election. Ohio, with its 20 electoral votes, is evenly split in the polls between Democratic Sen. Barack Obama and Republican Sen. John McCain.
Sen. Obama can count on strong support from big cities. Sen. McCain is polling well in rural communities and more-distant suburbs. As many as 24% of voters in the state say they are undecided or could change their mind before the Nov. 4 election, according to a poll by the Ohio News Organization, a consortium of eight newspapers.
Mathematicians at UCLA have discovered a 13-million digit new prime number.
Ralph Nader answers the ‘apathy hotline’ in this clever Internet-only ad.
Soaring unemployment in Asia’s newest nation, Timor-Leste, or East Timor, has raised concerns that violence could return to the streets if the restlessness among the country’s youths continues. With about 80% of young Timorese leaving school without any job in sight, most have given up hope except to leave their shores for greener pastures.
In May 2002, after 450 years of continuous foreign occupation, Timor-Leste became the world’s newest independent state. And while nations from Portugal to Japan and the United States have promised development, it has yet to have a meaninful impact on the country.
Below the fold an excerpt from the World Bank April 2008 Economic Assessment & Development Plan (pdf.) for Timor-Leste. (more…)
Here is the Monday, September 29th, 2008 edition of what’s making news and interesting reads from around the world. Also please note that off to the left there are two widgets with updates on news from Asia and the world in a separate page: Around Asia & Around the World New Feeds.
Hedge Funds to Show Their Shorts
Hedge fund managers are reluctantly preparing to disclose their short positions to U.S. regulators on Monday, a move set to give a rare public glimpse into their secretive trading strategies two weeks later. More from Reuters.
Somali Pirate Drama Continues
Tensions increased Sunday over what to do about the arms-carrying cargo ship hijacked off the coast of Somalia, as the pirates vowed to fight to the death. The report from the New York Times.
Fortis Rescued, Partially Nationalised
The faltering Dutch-Belgian bank and insurance giant Fortis has been partially nationalised. European Central Bank President Jean Claude Trichet held emergency talks with Dutch and Belgian ministers – including Belgian Prime Minister Yves Leterme – to rescue the cross-border financial group. Belgium, the Netherlands and Luxembourg have agreed to invest 11.2 billion euros in Fortis to avert insolvency and restore investor confidence. The full story from Euro News.
The Myanmar Junta’s Latest Moves Raise Suspicion
A year after its bloody suppression of the Saffron Revolution, Myanmar’s ruling junta this week released more than 9,000 prisoners, including several key political activists. It is the start of a new political era, says the leadership. Others see it as part of a cynical game plan to control the outcome of proposed elections. The story from the Asia Times.
Venezuela to Go Nuclear
Venezuelan leader Hugo Chávez said he has accepted Russia’s offer to help his country develop “nuclear energy with peaceful purposes. The story in the Miami Herald.
Japanese PM Aso Announces an Economic Stimulus Plan
New Japanese Prime Minister Taro Aso, his eyes on a snap poll, went on the offensive on Monday, pledging tax cuts, blasting the opposition for blocking policies and urging his rivals to help pass emergency economic steps. More from the BBC.