An interesting new meme has appeared on the left. You might call it the “if Obama loses” meme. The idea being pushed by many Obama supporters is that it would be an undeniable effect of deep seated racism. We hear it from governors, gasbags and the kool-aid crowd. We hear it from deep thinkers and, um, others. Many of us find this curious in the extreme. We have been saying Obama would lose since the primary.
I was an early Obama supporter. The wrapper is impressive. The problems for me started when I looked more closely. Once I got a my mind around the baggage Obama was carrying it was my opinion that he could not win a general election. Since my concern has always been winning I switched my primary support to Edwards, I voted for him, and then later to Senator Clinton because that is who I thought was most likely to win in the general. This primary season more than any I can remember has shown the difference between the Republican and the Democratic parties. The Republicans nominated the one candidate who had a chance to win in spite of the fact they hated him. The Democrats chose to nominate the one candidate who had a chance of losing because they like him. I am honestly baffled by the idea that Obama is some kind of perfect candidate. In a piece that makes a point or two I agree with Richard Miniter says:
Too many think that elections turn on identities, not ideas.
If Obama loses–and it is still a big ‘if’–too many liberals will fail to heed the message that voters have been sending them since 1981. Seventy percent of the country is tired of 1960s liberalism. Indeed many find the hippie vision frightening: A country too ashamed of itself to fight its enemies, too unsure of itself to praise its own history, govern its children or corral its criminals, and too resentful of the rich to allow the economy to make more of them.
And I predict that, if Obama loses, liberals won’t ask the key question: If, instead, we had tried 1990s Clinton-DLC liberalism, would it have worked?
“A big ‘if’? If you say so. ”Would it have worked?” No, if ”1990s Clinton-DLC liberalism” is mentioned at all by Obama supporters in the wake of a loss I would expect a different context entirely. So far I have seen fingers pointed every direction but inward. Miniter also says this:
If Obama is rejected by voters, liberal activists will face a difficult moment. Mondale, Dukakis, Gore, Kerry, sure. There was something wrong with them. A failure to connect. A remoteness. A coldness felt in some feathers of the left wing. Bill Clinton was an electoral success, but something about him didn’t sit right. The drama. The southerness. The welfare reform. The zaftig valley girl. Activists can understand why voters might have punished Hillary for the sins of Bill.
But Obama? He is perfect.
Something didn’t set right with Bubba, he’s got that part right. But it was not the “drama” the “southerness” or the “welfare reform”, to people like Miniter Bubba was a hick. It is the one thing Clinton can never be forgiven for. And then there is the last part; Obama is perfect. Perfect? As far as I can see Senator Obama is the most flawed presidential candidate in my memory. He is vulnerable in all the areas Republicans have historically shown an ability to exploit that often rises to an art form.
Obama is a great speaker but I do not believe him to be a great communicator. He is great in a stadium but not so much in a smaller room with no horizon at which he may gaze mistily. The Obama campaign is using Kennedy as a model and not doing badly. The problem is, this is not the 1960s. Obama could probably do well in that sort of ivory tower media environment where you only appear in peoples living room to make a grand speech occasionally. We don’t live in that environment any more. Expectations are a bit different for a president today and Obama has shown a singular inability to connect with voters in the way that, for example, Bill Clinton did. Obama has not made people believe that he “feels their pain”. Miniter says, “Too many think that elections turn on identities, not ideas.” In truth, they often do. I do not think most presidential elections are decided on issues and I do not think this one will be. People give their vote to the person they, for some intangible reason, trust. I will not list here all the reasons and relationships the Republicans will seize on to try to make Senator Obama seem like to much of a risk. We all know who and what they are. That is, if we are honest.
Another reason Senator Obama could lose is the state of the Democratic Party. I have been a Democrat for many years and I have never seen the party so divided. It didn’t have to be this way. In any other year, in any other election the second place candidate who got the votes of 50% of the Democratic Party would have been the Vice Presidential candidate. I believe that if Obama had put Senator Clinton on the ticket they would have won. It would have been a close election but it could have been done. We live in a closely divided country. Mondale, Dukakis, Gore, Kerry may not have been perfect, as Miniter says, but if they were not able to eek out a victory with a mostly united party I do not think Obama, with all of his baggage, will make it “ground operation” or not. This has been my opinion for many months and it has absolutely nothing to do with race.
Obama may indeed win. I would welcome this because any Democrat in the White House is better than any Republican. I would be happy to be wrong. This is not an endorsement of McCain or the McCain/Palin ticket. I am a Democrat and as pointless as I think it is I will vote for Obama if I vote at all. My point is this race baiting needs to stop. The fact is, you can acknowledge there is at least some truth in what I have just said or you can say if Obama loses the only possible reason is his pigmentation. I do not believe any honest person can do the latter. It is a lie. Race is far from the only reason this man could lose the election. To say such a thing is to propagate a lie that could make it even more difficult for other people of color to make it to the place Senator Obama now finds himself. If you care about such things please consider that before you spread this particular meme.
Speaking only for me.