In Iowa, a new poll from Survey USA shows the race in-line with the other recent poll from the Des Moines Register. In the Des Moines Register poll, Senator Obama led Senator McCain by an 12 point margin, 52% to 40%. In the SUSA poll, Obama leads McCain 54% to 43%, an eleven point margin.
In an election for President of the United States in Iowa today, 46 days from the election, Democrat Barack Obama defeats Republican John McCain by 11 points, 54% to 43%, according to this latest SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for KAAL-TV Mason City and WHO-TV Des Moines.
Among women, Obama leads by 20 points; among men, Obama and McCain tie. Among voters younger than Barack Obama, Obama leads by 15. Among voters older than John McCain, Obama leads by 9. Among voters who are in-between the two candidates’ ages, Obama leads by 7. Among white voters — 95% of Iowa’s likely voters — Obama leads by 8 points. 11% of Republicans cross over to vote for Obama; 8% of Democrats cross over to vote for McCain; Independents break for Obama by 9 points.
John McCain leads among Republicans, conservatives, those who attend church regularly, pro-life voters, those focused on terrorism, among the 16% of likely voters who say they may yet change their mind, and in Southwest Iowa. Obama is slightly ahead in Northwest Iowa and leads by double digits in the northeast and southeast portions of the state.
Takeaways
Iowa is likely not to become a battleground state. Its seven Electoral College votes are safely in Obama’s column. For McCain to be competitive in the state, he would have to have a double digit lead among men and be within ten points among women. That does not seem likely to occur.