A new poll in Michigan (link is to US Census demographic data) from WXYZ and the Detroit Free Press points to tight and tightening race with Senator Obama leading Senator McCain by three points. The previous poll from Rasmussen Reports had Obama leading by five points. This new poll seems consistent with the dynamic at play in Michigan.
Michigan voters are weighing in on the race for the White House. The latest results are in from an exclusive WXYZ-TV/Detroit News poll which shows that the presidential race is extremely tight. Experts say it could all come down to Michigan in this historic election.
The exclusive poll shows the race getting even closer, with Barack Obama leading John McCain 43% to 42% with a 4 point margin of error. When Michigan voters were asked to consider both tickets, now that both running mates have been chosen, Obama’s lead jumps slightly to 45% compared to McCain’s 42%.
For the first time, our exclusive poll is showing how Michigan voters feel about McCain’s Vice Presidential Pick, Sarah Palin. When asked if Sarah Palin should John McCain not be able to serve out his term, 43% of Michigan voters polled said yes compared to 47% who said no.
According to the poll, an overwhelming 73% of voters are convinced that the U.S. is headed in the wrong direction, while 80% believe Michigan is on the wrong track.
Three issues concern Michigan voters the most, according to latest poll results. The economy is at the top of the list, followed by protecting America from terrorism and health care.
THE ENTIRE POLL IS POSTED BELOW WITH THE ACTUAL QUESTIONS THAT VOTERS WERE ASKED. 602 PEOPLE WERE SURVEYED AND THERE IS A MARGIN OF ERROR OF ±4%.
Overall, would you say that things in the United States are generally headed in the right direction, or have things pretty seriously gotten off on the wrong track?
17% Right direction
73% Wrong track
10% Undecided / Don’t know / RefusedHow about in Michigan – are things in Michigan generally headed in the right direction, or are things pretty seriously off on the wrong track?
11% Right direction
80% Wrong track
9% Undecided / Don’t know / RefusedNow I am going to read a list of the top 10 national problems or issues people say they are most concerned about. After I read the whole list, please tell me which one problem or issue you are personally concerned about the most?
43% Improving the nation’s economy and providing jobs
13% Protecting America from terrorism
9% Making quality health care affordable and accessible
8% Promoting morality and family values
7% Fighting the ongoing war in Iraq
6% Reducing the price of gasoline
5% Improving education
4% Keeping federal taxes low
2% Protecting our air and water
1% Controlling crime and drugs
1% More than one
1% Undecided / Don’t know / RefusedHere is a list of several political figures. For each one, please tell me if you recognize the name, and if you do, whether you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of that person.
George W. Bush
Total Favorable – 25%
Total Unfavorable – 62%Jennifer Granholm
Total Favorable – 50%
Total Unfavorable – 41%John McCain
Total Favorable – 51%
Total Unfavorable – 42%Barack Obama
Total Favorable – 54%
Total Unfavorable – 36%Sarah Palin
Total Favorable – 48%
Total Unfavorable – 35%Joe Biden
Total Favorable – 47%
Total Unfavorable – 30%Carl Levin
Total Favorable – 55%
Total Unfavorable – 25%Jack Hoogendyk
Total Favorable – 5%
Total Unfavorable – 6%Do you think the U.S. economy is getting stronger, getting weaker, or staying about the same?
5% Getting stronger
68% Getting weaker
24% Staying about the same
3% Undecided/Don’t know/RefusedIn the election for President, if the election were held today, would you vote for John McCain the Republican, Barack Obama the Democrat, Ralph Nader the Independent, or Bob Barr the Libertarian? If you are undecided and the election were held today and you had to decide right now, which candidate would you lean toward, Obama, McCain, Nader or Barr?
43% Total Obama
42% Total McCain
2% Total Nader
2% Total Barr
10% Undecided / Don’t know / RefusedHave you ruled out voting for Barack Obama the Democrat and are pretty certain that you will vote for John McCain the Republican, or, are you still considering Barack Obama and might change your mind and vote for him?
81% Ruled out Obama and certain to be voting for McCain
17% Still considering Obama and may change mind
2% Undecided/Don’t know/RefusedWhat is the main reason why you are voting for John McCain?
21% His Position on Issues – In General
18% He’s Conservative
17% Experience
13% Best Candidate
7% Abortion Position
6% Like Him – In General
6% Strong Leader
5% National Security Position
3% Taxes Position
3% War In Iraq Position
2% Running Mate – Palin
— Undecided / Don’t know / RefusedWhat would you say is the main reason why you are NOT voting for Barack Obama?
28% Lacks Experience
14% Too Liberal
12% Disagree with His Ideas
10% Abortion Position
8% Do Not Trust Him
7% Taxes Position
4% False Promises
4% Like McCain More – In General
4% Track Record
3% Would Ruin The Country
2% War In Iraq Position
1% Dislike Him – In General
1% Health Care Position
1% Religion
2% Undecided / Don’t know / RefusedHave you ruled out voting for John McCain the Republican and are pretty certain that you will vote for Barack Obama the Democrat, or, are you still considering John McCain and might change your mind and vote for him?
85% Ruled out McCain and certain to be voting for Obama
15% Still considering McCain and may change mind
— Undecided/ Don’t know/ RefusedWhat is the main reason why you are voting for Barack Obama?
41% Represents Change
19% Democrat
15% His Position on Issues – In General
13% Economy Position
6% Trust Him
3% Taxes Position
3% Abortion PositionWhat would you say is the main reason why you are NOT voting for John McCain?
42% More Bush Policy – Same
9% Age
9% Republican
6% Do Not Trust Him
6% Does Not Understand The Middle Class
5% Economy Position
5% False Promises
5% Running Mate – Palin
3% Health Care Position
3% Like Obama More – In General
2% War in Iraq Position
2% Abortion Position
2% Taxes PositionIf you were not voting for (Bob Barr/Ralph Nader), which of the two major party candidates would you vote for – John McCain the Republican or Barack Obama the Democrat? If undecided, and the election were held today and you had to decide right now, which candidate would you lean toward, Obama or McCain?
11% – Total Obama
36% – Total McCain
53% – Undecided / Don’t know / RefusedIf the November general election for U.S. Senate were held today, would you vote for Jack Hoogendyk the Republican or Carl Levin the Democrat?
56% Total Levin
28% Total Hoogendyk
16% Undecided / Don’t know/ RefusedFor each word or phrase I read, please tell me whether you think it is a better description of John McCain the Republican or Barack Obama the Democrat?
Someone you can trust.
43% – McCain
39% – ObamaHe shares my values.
44% – McCain
42% – ObamaCares about someone like me.
33% – McCain
47% – ObamaHas the right kind of experience.
61% – McCain
26% – ObamaWill bring about needed change.
31% – McCain
51% – ObamaWill work for bipartisan solutions.
41% – McCain
41% – ObamaWill be able to inspire people.
25% – McCain
62% – ObamaWill be a strong leader.
45% – McCain
39% – ObamaWill protect American interests.
48% – McCain
36% – ObamaIf John McCain is elected, how comfortable are you with the thought of having him as President – very comfortable, mostly comfortable, only somewhat comfortable, or not really comfortable at all?
42% Total Comfortable
25% Only somewhat comfortable
30% Not really comfortable at all
3% Undecided/Don’t know/RefusedIf Barack Obama is elected, how comfortable are you with the thought of having him as President – very comfortable, mostly comfortable, only somewhat comfortable, or not really comfortable at all?
48% Total Comfortable
21% Only somewhat comfortable
28% Not really comfortable at all
3% Undecided / Don’t know / RefusedDid the selection of Sarah Palin as the candidate for Vice President make you more likely to vote for John McCain, less likely to vote for him, or, would you say that the selection of Sarah Palin really didn’t influence you one way or the other?
26% More Likely
47% No influence one way or the other
25% Less Likely
2% Undecided/Don’t know/RefusedDid the selection of Joe Biden as the candidate for Vice President make you more likely to vote for Barack Obama, less likely to vote for him, or, would you say that the selection of Joe Biden really didn’t influence you one way or the other?
23% More Likely
58% No influence one way or the other
16% Less Likely
3% Undecided / Don’t know / RefusedThinking about the two tickets for President, if the election were held today, would you vote for John McCain and Sarah Palin the Republicans, Barack Obama and Joe Biden the Democrats, Ralph Nader the Independent, or Bob Barr the Libertarian?
45% Total Obama – Biden
42% Total McCain – Palin
2% Total Nader
2% Total Barr
9% Undecided/Don’t know/RefusedIf John McCain were elected President and he was not able to serve for his entire term of office, do you think that Sarah Palin is qualified enough to be able to step in as President, or not?
43% Yes, she is qualified to be President
47% No, she is not qualified to be President
10% decided/Don’t know/RefusedBased on what you know or have heard or read, what do you think John McCain’s religion is?
21% Protestant (Methodist, Baptist, Lutheran, Presbyterian, or Episcopalian)
6% Roman Catholic or Catholic
2% Other
2% Christian – Non Denominational (volunteered)
29% None (volunteered)
40% Undecided/Don’t know/RefusedBased on what you know or have heard of read, what do you think Barack Obama’s religion is?
19% Protestant (Methodist, Baptist, Lutheran, Presbyterian, or Episcopalian)
1% Roman Catholic or Catholic
7% Muslim
2% Christian – Non Denominational (volunteered)
33% None (volunteered)
37% Undecided / Don’t know / RefusedDo you agree or disagree with the following statement? American voters are not ready yet to elect a candidate for president who is a black man?
14% Agree
78% Disagree
8% Undecided/Don’t know/RefusedDo you think of yourself as pro-choice, meaning that you support allowing women to have the right to an abortion, or do you consider yourself pro-life, meaning that you oppose abortions except where it is necessary to save the life of the mother?
50% Pro-choice
46% Pro-life
4% Undecided/Don’t know/Refused
Takeaways
Michigan went both for Al Gore in 2000 and for John Kerry in 2004. Senator Kerry carried Michigan by 3.42%. Obama has to hold both Michigan and Pennsylvania and pry away one other state with at least five Electoral College votes into his column. So far, that seems doable if not likely with races in Virginia and Colorado running neck and neck. For McCain right now Pennsylvania, where the race is in a dead heat, seems the likelier bet to secure the White House.
Worrisome for McCain is the fact that 73% of Michigan voters think that country is headed in the wrong direction and that 42% tied McCain to the policies of the Bush Administration. The biggest negative for Obama was his perceived lack of experience but even then only 28% saw that as a problem. Michigan may well likely be one of the few states that decide the race and at this point reading the numbers underneath the overall number show Obama likely holding onto Michigan and thus probably winning the White House. The other state to watch is Pennsylvania.
Michigan has 17 Electoral College votes.