I did not leave the Democratic Party, it left me.

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This is an Obama campaign ad running in the Flint, Michigan market. The ad is one of many ads that the Obama campaign has chosen not to release via a press release. It is a 30 second spot. The spot accuses McCain of wanting to privatize the program. By not releasing his more controversial attack ads to the press, Obama can claim that he is running a positive campaign focused on issues. Clearly, he is not.

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Rasmussen Report’s latest poll in Wisconsin points to a tightening race in America’s dairy land. Senator Obama leads Senator McCain by two points, 48% to 46% with McCain narrowing the gap from four points a month ago and from eleven points since June.

The presidential race continues to tighten in Wisconsin, where Barack Obama now leads John McCain by just two percentage points, 48% to 46%, according to the latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of voters in the state.

Last month, it was a four-point race. A month earlier, in the first poll in the state since Hillary Clinton dropped out of the race for the Democratic presidential nomination, Obama had an 11-point lead over McCain 50% to 39%.

Indicative of the new closeness of the race here are the nearly identical favorables and unfavorables for the two presidential candidates—58% favorable for McCain, 55% for Obama.

But in the first Rasmussen reports poll in the state since Obama and McCain selected their running mates, voters feel more strongly about Sarah Palin, with 39% rating their view of her Very Favorable versus 24% who say the same of Joseph Biden. But 31% have a Very Unfavorable view of Palin, while only 24% feel that way about the Democrat.

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Perhaps reflecting its new status as a swing state, polls in the Commonwealth of Virginia are swinging all over the place. Polls earlier in the week has Senator Obama leading by four points in the Survey USA poll while the Rasmussen Reports poll had the race tied. Today’s poll from the Virginian-Pilot shows Senator McCain opening up an eight poll lead.

Republican presidential nominee John McCain has opened a clear lead over Democrat Barack Obama among Virginia voters in the race for the White House, according to a new statewide poll.

The survey, taken last week for the Center for Public Policy at Christopher Newport University, found McCain with the support of 48 percent of state voters, compared with 39 percent for Obama. Just under 13 percent were undecided.

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The Hoffman Research Group poll out earlier this week had Senator Obama leading in Oregon by seven points over Senator McCain, 46% to 39% with 1% apiece for Libertarian candidate Bob Barr and independent Ralph Nader. Today’s Rasmussen Reports shows that McCain might be continuing to make in inroads in the bluer northwestern states of Oregon and Washington.

Repeating a pattern seen across the country, John McCain has gained ground on Barack Obama in Oregon. In August, before the running mates were selected and the conventions held, the Democrat enjoyed a ten-point lead in this traditionally “Blue” state. Now, however, McCain has pulled to within four points with results that are virtually identical to the actual Oregon vote in Election 2004.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Oregon voters shows Obama attracting 51% of the vote while McCain earns 47% (see crosstabs). This is the seventh Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in Oregon for Election 2008, and it’s the closest that McCain has ever been. Four times, Obama has enjoyed an eight-to-10 point lead, and once he was up by 14.

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On Monday, Amir Taheri in his column in the New York Post ran a story about Senator Obama attempting to persuade Iraq’s Foreign Minister Hoshyar Zebari to delay the Status-of-Forces Agreement (SOFA) on a draw-down of the American military presence. If true, it is a potentially explosive issue that might derail Obama’s candidacy. The article suggests that Senator Obama sought to delay any change in the SOFA so as to exploit a perceived political advantage in the US Presidential contest. Obama has denied the allegations.

That’s not stopping conservative groups from attacking the Obama campaign over the SOFA issue. Today, the Move America Forward PAC unveiled a new ad to run nation-wide beginning tomorrow. The ad is a 30 second spot. I suspect this won’t be the last ad on this topic.

Here is the background on the Move America Forward PAC from Source Watch. Move America Forward (MAF) is headed by California Republican activists, talk show hosts and staff members of the public relations firm Russo Marsh & Rogers, which has strong ties to the Republican Party. PR professional Sal Russo is the chief strategist for MAF. It is a conservative 501c3 not-for-profit organization formed in early 2004 by Howard Kaloogian and radio talk show host Melanie Morgan (formerly of KSFO 560 AM — San Francisco). As a non-profit organization it is not required to reveal its contributors to the public.

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Israeli Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni has won the Kadima party primary, the first ever in Israel, in the race to succeed Prime Minister Ehud Olmert. She now has to pull together a coalition to secure a governing majority in the fractured 120 seat Knesset. Should she be successful in this task, she will become the first female Prime Minister in Israel since Golda Meir in the 1970s.

Two stories from Haaretz.

Exit polls: Livni wins Kadima leadership race
The results of today’s primary race: Exit polls: Livni wins Kadima leadership race

Exit polls by Israel’s three major TV stations put Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni on 47-49 percent of the vote in the election for the new Kadima leader, negating a second round of voting to replace Prime Minister Ehud Olmert and making her the next likely premier.

Livni’s main rival for the leadership of the ruling party, Shaul Mofaz, the hardline transportation minister and former army chief, was predicted to have won 37 percent of the vote.

What Happens Next
Foreign Minister Livni does not automatically succeed Prime Minister Olmert. Here is what happens next:

Israel’s ruling Kadima Party held a primary election Wednesday to pick a successor to the party leader, Prime Minister Ehud Olmert.

But the winner will not automatically succeed Olmert. Here is a brief look at the process:

– Kadima holds primary election. If the winner gets 40 percent or more of the vote, he or she is the new party leader. If not, party holds run-off between two top vote-getters the following week. Exit polls put Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni on 47-49 percent and her main rival, Transportation Minister Shaul Mofaz, on 37 percent.

– Once party has a leader, Olmert formally submits resignation to President Shimon Peres. The cabinet resigns with him.

– After consulting with party leaders, Peres picks a member of the Knesset, most likely the Kadima leader, to form a new coalition government.

– The prime minister designate has 42 days to form a new coalition and bring it to the Knesset for approval.

– If no new government is formed, a general election is held within 90 days. The process of forming government begins all over again.

– Olmert remains in office as caretaker prime minister until a new government is approved by the Knesset.

Foreign Minister Livni is considered a moderate within the Kadima party.

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In what is likely the nation’s bluest state, Rhode Island & the Providence Plantations, Senator Obama is riding a crest of support in the Ocean state. He enjoys a 19 point lead over Senator McCain, 58% to 39%. Obama’s support is broad based leading among men, women and independents.

Barack Obama continues to hold onto a huge lead over John McCain in Rhode Island. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of the state finds the Democrat ahead 58% to 39%.

In June, Obama had a 55% to 31% lead in the Ocean State.

Rhode Island has cast its four Electoral College votes for the Democratic candidate in eight out of the last 10 presidential elections. In 2004, John Kerry enjoyed a decisive 59% to 39% victory in the Ocean State.

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The McCain campaign has released a new ad addressing the crisis on Wall Street. The ad is a 30 second spot and will run nationally.

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This is the fourth ad from Vets for Freedom. This one attacks Senator Obama over his views on the surge. Previous ads from Vets for Freedom can be found in the US Campaign Ads category.

The commercial is part of a $7 million “Tell the Truth About the Surge” issue advocacy program that VFF has launched to promote the success of the surge and support passage of S. Res. 636 and companion legislation in the U.S. House of Representatives. The ad is a 30 second spot and it started running today nationwide. Iraq as a campaign issue has faded to a secondary tier of issues. Vets for Freedom is a 527 group, a type of American tax-exempt organization named after a section of the United States tax code, 26 U.S.C. § 527 that espouses political issues.

In previous election cycles, 527 ads could only run until 60 days prior to Election Day. That’s no longer the case. Below the fold, some of Obama’s previous comments on the surge.
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