The Obama campaign released another negative attack ad this evening. This one focus on the Lilly Ledbetter Fair Pay Act currently before the Senate which Senator McCain opposes on the grounds that it is a flawed bill that will lead to increase litigation. The ad is a 30 second spot.

Here’s the background on this issue from the Washington Post:

The Facts
Lilly Ledbetter was a Goodyear Tire employee who sued the company in 1998 after finding out that she was earning 40 percent less than male co-workers employed to do similar jobs. A federal judge in Birmingham, Ala, awarded her $360,000 in back pay, but the verdict was overturned on appeal. In May 2007, the Supreme Court ruled against Ledbetter in a 5-4 verdict. The justices ruled that employees who believe they have been discriminated against must file a complaint within 180 days with the Equal Employment Opportunity Commission.

The Ledbetter bill, which passed the House last year and is now languishing before the Senate, removes the 180-day deadline. Supporters of the bill claim that it is usually impractical to file a complaint within 180 days as most companies are very secretive about salary data, and it can take years to establish a pattern of discrimination.

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There is good news for both candidates from a series of five polls from Rasmussen Reports for Colorado, Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Virginia (the links are to US Census Bureau demographic data for each state). On balance, the news is slightly better for Senator McCain.

Polling in Colorado, Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Virginia shows marginal gains for McCain in three states and for Obama in two. McCain has a slight advantage in three of the five states and the other two are tied. However, in only one state does the gap between McCain and Obama exceed three percentage points in polls with a four-and-a-half percentage point margin of sampling error.

The overriding message from these results is that the race remains very close with just over seven weeks to go.

I wouldn’t disagree. Polls are still in flux with many voters undecided or unfixed in their choice. A SUSA poll from today had Senator Obama leading Senator McCain by four points in Virginia while this poll has them tied. Still there are two clearer trends both positive for McCain but not necessarily fatal to Obama’s chances. In Florida, McCain has opened up a lead of five points and in Ohio, polls seem to be trending for McCain. The other good news for McCain is a two point lead in Colorado. But these are all states that the GOP won in 2004 so in essence McCain has to hold serve in these battleground states. (more…)

In Iowa, a new poll from the Des Moines Register finds that Senator Obama enjoys a wide lead over Senator McCain for Iowa’s seven Electoral College votes. Obama leads by 52% to 40%, a 12 point margin.

Democrat Barack Obama has established a double-digit lead over Republican John McCain in Iowa as the presidential race in this Midwestern battleground enters its critical fall stretch, according to The Des Moines Register’s latest Iowa Poll.

The poll, taken in the wake of the parties’ national conventions, shows Obama favored by 52 percent of Iowa likely voters, compared to 40 percent for McCain. Although only 5 percent were undecided, the race remains fluid, with one in four voters saying they could still be persuaded to vote for another candidate in the seven weeks left until Election Day. The poll’s margin of error is plus or minus 4 percentage points.

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Executive Summary: Time to update the favorability ratio. This is the fourth weekly installment. While Senator McCain’s lead has narrowed, the real takeaway is a steady uptick in Senator Obama’s unfavorable rating. Over the week, Obama’s unfavorable rating rose two points to 45%, his highest level since August 27th. McCain’s favorable rating also declined four points from 60% to 56% and was matched by a rise in his unfavorable rating from 38% to 42%. Still, McCain enjoys a advantage overall.

The Lemos Favorability Ratio
One of the tools that we use on Wall Street to measure movement is by expressing data as a ratio and then tracking the movement of the basis points. A basis point is a unit that is equal to 1/100th of 1%, and is used to denote the change in any financial instrument. The basis point is commonly used for calculating changes in interest rates, equity indexes and the yield of a fixed-income security. The relationship between percentage changes and basis points can be summarized as follows: 1% change = 100 basis points, and 0.01% = 1 basis point. Tracking any movement is possible and movements can be very clearly delineated. A month ago, I decided to track both Senator Obama’s Favorable versus Unfavorable ratings as well as Senator McCain’s Favorable versus Unfavorable ratings. I take the the favorable rating and divide by the unfavorable rating to get a ratio which I have named the Lemos Favorability Ratio.

I am using Rasmussen Reports Daily Tracking Poll as my raw data. Rasmussen Reports is putting out a daily tracking poll with the national favorability versus unfavorability percentages. Their data extends back to June 4, 2008 and I have created a weekly Excel spreadsheet tracking the data. Here’s that data broken out by candidate and then a side-by-side comparison of the Lemos Favorability ratio is below the fold along with data from a recent poll in Colorado.

McCain Favourable versus Unfavourable Ratings Nationwide

Takeaway
In terms of the ratio, you want a higher number. The higher the number the greater the spread between your favorable and unfavorable ratings. McCain enjoyed his highest number to date last week, 1.58 in the favorability ratio but saw an erosion of 25 basis point erosion this week as his favorable rating declined by four points and his unfavorable rating rose by the same amount. However, McCain is still well above his lows in the index at 1.33.

Obama Favourable versus Unfavourable Ratings Nationwide

Takeaway
Again in terms of the ratio, you want a higher number. The higher the number the greater the spread between your favorable and unfavorable ratings. It wasn’t a very good week for Obama either. He is now just off his lows in the index at 1.20 in the favorability rate just two points off his low back on August 26th. The big problem for Obama is his rather high unfavorable rating of 45% which upticked two points over the course of the week.

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Suddenly the Empire state, which last voted GOP in the Reagan landslide of 1984, is a battleground state or perhaps at least competitive. The first poll out for New York state comes from Siena College it shows Senator Obama’s lead down to five points from 18 points in June. Obama leads 46% to 41%. This poll was conducted from September 8 to September 10, 2008 and it has a +/- 3.9 percent margin of error.

Seven weeks until Election Day, the race for President has tightened in New York, with Sen. Barack Obama (D-IL) leading Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) 46-41 percent among likely voters, according to a new Siena (College) Research Institute poll released today. Obama’s five point lead is down from eight points in August, 13 points in July and 18 points in June, when he led 51-33 percent. On a series of six questions concerning current issues in the campaign – economy, Iraq, terrorism, health care, America’s position in the world, and education – likely voters believe Obama will do a better job on four. Conversely, out of six attributes voters often look at in choosing a candidate – compassion, patriotism, experience, intelligence, integrity, and leadership – New York’s electorate gives the edge to McCain on four.

“Although New York has long been regarded as a ‘safe’ state for the Democrats in presidential politics, likely voters in the Empire State are currently only giving Senator Obama a five-point cushion,” said Steven Greenberg, spokesman for the Siena New York Poll. “The conventions are over. The running mates are set. And as voters begin to focus on the race, New York’s overwhelming Democratic enrollment advantage is not reflected in how voters tell Siena they plan to vote.”

The other key data point in the Siena College poll is the favorable and unfavorable ratings. Obama has a 57% favorable rating versus a 32% unfavorable one. McCain has a 50% favorable rating versus a 37% unfavorable rating. Unless Obama’s favorable rating comes down, New York should remain blue in November even if it is by a smaller percentage than originally expected. It also remains to be seen if McCain will spend time and energy trying to eat into Obama’s now lead in New York. The key might be New Jersey where Obama now leads by three points. New Jersey is part of both the New York and Philadelphia media markets and if McCain decides to make a push in the Garden state from both ends that may have a ripple effect in New York.

New York is the third richest electoral prize with 31 Electoral College votes.

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What a difference a week made for Obama in the Commonwealth of Virginia. Last week’s Survey USA poll had it McCain 49%, Obama 47%. This week’s Survey USA poll shows the race in Senator Obama’s favour 50% to 46%.

In an election for President of the United States in Virginia today, 09/15/08, 7 weeks till votes are counted, Democrat Barack Obama defeats Republican John McCain 50% to 46%, according to this latest SurveyUSA poll conducted for WDBJ-TV in Roanoke, WJLA-TV in Washington DC, WTVR-TV in Richmond, and WJHL-TV in the Tri-Cities. Compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll released one week ago, immediately following the Republican National Convention, Obama is up 3 points; McCain is down 3. The movement solidifies Virginia place as America’s 2008 battleground.

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This is the fourth poll of the critical battleground state of Ohio and the third to show the trendline in McCain’s direction. Last week, the Quinnipiac poll showed that Senator Obama had a five point lead but I noted that the timing of that poll (September 4th through September 9th) made it likely that the Quinnipiac poll understated Senator McCain’s strength in the Buckeye state. Looking at the national polls, the break towards McCain began on September 7th so it is probable that the Quinnipiac poll no longer reflected a fast-moving trend towards McCain. On Friday, the Insider Advantage poll (pdf.) began to bear my assertion out. This poll was taken on September 10th after the McCain surge. It has McCain up by one, though that’s well within the margin of error +/- 4.3%. McCain led 48% to 47% with 3% undecided and 2% preferring a third party candidate. And then on Saturday, more evidence of the McCain trendline in The Ohio Poll from the Institute for Policy Research at the University of Cincinnati also has a poll out today and it shows McCain leading 48% to 44% with 5% opting for third party candidates.

Today’s Survey USA poll of the Buckeye state indeed shows that McCain has gained the upper hand in the battle for Ohio’s 20 Electoral College votes though the vote is still close and by no means over.

In an election for President of the United States in Ohio today, 09/15/08, Republican John McCain defeats Barack Obama by 4 points, according to this SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for WCMH-TV Columbus, WCPO-TV Cincinnati, WKYC-TV Cleveland, and WDIO-TV Dayton. Today, it’s McCain 49%, Obama 45%.

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In a new hard-hitting ad out today, the Obama campaign quotes several media sources assaulting the GOP candidate and accusing him of running a sleazy campaign and repeatedly lying to the public before ending with the same refrain of McCain is more of the same. The ad is 30 second spot and is expected to run nationally.

For its part, the McCain campaign responded to the latest Obama ad by calling it a desperate effort to “move away from talking about his thin, but alarming record on the issues.” McCain campaign spokesman Tucker Bounds added:

“As Americans face economic uncertainty, it is clear that Barack Obama would sooner hurl insults than discuss his record of seeking higher taxes during a down economy, opposing additional off-shore drilling to reduce energy prices and voting the partisan line nearly 100 percent of the time.”

It’s pretty clear that this is going to be a pretty nasty, bitter and ugly campaign.

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The McCain released this ad this morning. Entitled Crisis, the ad is a 30 second spot. The ad is intended to air nationally.

The script and supporting background documentation is below the fold. (more…)

No surprise in Utah either, Senator McCain is ahead of Senator Obama by a two-to-one margin in Rasmussen Reports poll shows McCain leading 64% to 32% increasing his lead 12 points since June largely by winning the undecided independents.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in Utah finds John McCain leading Barack Obama by a two-to-one margin, 64% to 32%. In June, McCain was ahead by a 52% to 33% margin.
McCain is viewed favorably by 71% of Utah voters, Obama by 38%. Those figures reflect a thirteen point improvement for McCain and a six-point decline for Obama.

Alaska Governor Sarah Palin is viewed favorably by 69%, including 46% with a Very Favorable opinion.

Delaware Senator Joe Biden is viewed favorably by 38%, including 18% with a Very Favorable opinion.

Fifty-six percent (56%) say that McCain made the right decision when selecting Palin as his running mate. Thirty-seven percent (37%) say that Obama’s selection of Biden was the right choice.

Palin is seen as politically conservative by 84% while Biden is seen as liberal by 61%.

Utah has five Electoral College votes. The state last voted for a Democrat in the LBJ landslide of 1964.

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