A video from Senator Obama’s early days in Illinois politics has Obama crediting William Ayers for his launch into politics.

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The Obama campaign has released another ad attacking Senator McCain over his connections to lobbyists. The ad is a 30 second spot. Given the number of ads with this theme, it is clear that the Obama campaign believes that it has a winning issue. These lobbyist theme ads started running on Friday. It is too early to tell whether they have had any impact in the polls as yet. So far, there doesn’t seem to be much of an effect. Rasmussen Reports daily tracking poll had McCain reach the 50% mark for the first time maintaining a three point margin over Obama. The Gallup poll gave McCain a two point lead.

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The Service Employees International Union (SEIU) which represents 1.5 million public service workers, nurses, hospital staff, nursing home care providers, building services and security guards, in North America has released an ad on behalf of Senator Obama attacking Senator McCain over his lack of knowledge on economic issues. The ad is a 30 second spot.

Other unions are also coming to the rescue of the Obama campaign but at this point my guess is that 527 groups ads are running by a four or five to one margin in favour of McCain.

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Last week’s column by former San Francisco Mayor Willie Brown in the San Francisco Chronicle sounded the alarm over the impact of Governor Sarah Palin’s selection as Senator McCain’s running mate noting the “Democrats are in trouble.” This week another column by Willie Brown in the San Francisco Chronicle continues on that theme.

For first time in modern history, a presidential race is actually going to be decided by the vice presidential pick.

Thanks to Sarah Palin, this is no longer a contest between Barack Obama and John McCain – it’s between Brother Barack and Sistah Sarah.

Rock star vs. rock star. Inexperienced vs. inexperienced. Newcomer vs. newcomer. Change vs. change.

His “change” is East Coast intellectual. Her “change” is NASCAR.

His change is wine and cheese. Her change is mayonnaise by the gallon.

And notice how everyone is calling her Sarah Palin – not Gov. Palin. That’s not good for the Democrats. It shows a certain familiarity that goes beyond just issues or her knowledge of the “Bush Doctrine.”

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During the primaries, I pointed to Obama’s lobbyist connections and the duplicitous parsing of his rhetoric. Today the Boston Globe finds the role of political action committees (PACs), special interests and lobbyists in the Obama campaign to be “a complicated truth.”

Using campaign appearances, e-mails to supporters, and Iowa TV ads, Illinois Senator Barack Obama has repeatedly reminded voters that his presidential campaign does not accept contributions from lobbyists or political action committees, casting his decision as a noble departure from the ways of Washington.

He hit the theme hard again in Tuesday’s Democratic debate in Chicago as he sought to capitalize on rival Hillary Clinton’s remark last weekend that taking lobbyists’ cash is acceptable because they “represent real Americans.”

“The people in this stadium need to know who we’re going to fight for,” Obama said at Soldier Field. “The reason that I’m running for president is because of you, not because of folks who are writing big checks, and that’s a clear message that has to be sent, I think, by every candidate.”

But behind Obama’s campaign rhetoric about taking on special interests lies a more complicated truth. A Globe review of Obama’s campaign finance records shows that he collected hundreds of thousands of dollars from lobbyists and PACs as a state legislator in Illinois, a US senator, and a presidential aspirant.

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A new Survey USA poll in Minnesota shows Senator Obama with a narrow two point lead over Senator McCain. With the margin of error at +/- 3.7%, the race is a dead heat. This poll confirms the findings of another poll by the Minneapolis Star Tribune.

In an election for President of the United States in Minnesota today, 09/12/08, 53 days to Election Day, Barack Obama and John McCain finish effectively even, according to this exclusive SurveyUSA poll conducted for KSTP-TV in Minneapolis, WDIO-TV in Duluth, KAAL-TV in Rochester, and KSAX-TV in Alexandria. Today, it’s Obama 49%, McCain 47%, within the survey’s 3.7 percentage point margin of sampling error. Compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll released one month ago, Obama and McCain are each up two points overall. Little has changed, and what changes have occurred appear to have offset one another.

Among men, McCain had led by 3, now leads by 5.
Among women, Obama had led by 9, still leads by 9.
Among voters who are younger than Barack Obama, Obama had led by 4, now leads by 5.
Among voters who are older than John McCain, a flip: McCain had led by 4, now trails by 4.
Among voters who are in-between the two candidates’ ages, a flip in the opposite direction; Obama had led by 3, now trails by 3.

1 in 10 Republicans cross over to vote for Obama; 1 in 10 Democrats cross over to vote for McCain; Independents favor McCain by 9 points, up from 2 points last month — but at the same time, the percentage of Minnesota’s likely voters who identify themselves as Independents has fallen from 24% last month to 16% today, blunting the impact and increasing the margin of error associated with this 7 point McCain climb.

In NE Minnesota, McCain today leads by 14 points, a flip from last month, when Obama led by 8. In Western MN, Obama had led by 5, now leads by 3, an effective tie. In Southern Minnesota, the two candidates remain tied. In the Twin Cities area, Obama moves from a tie to a 6-point lead.

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Senator Obama can find solace in today’s poll from liberal Oregon, he has a seven point lead over Senator McCain. A poll from the Hoffman Research Group (pdf.) shows Obama leading McCain 46% to 39% with Libertarian candidate Bob Barr polling 1% and independent candidate Ralph Nader also at 1%.

The resulting data found Barack Obama currently leading John McCain by a 46% to 39% margin. Ralph Nadar and Bob Barr who will both appear on Oregon ballots drew 1% and 1% respectively.

When pushed, undecided voters split almost evenly between the two major candidates. Not unlike most of the nation, McCain fared best in the more rural areas, while Obama enjoyed his strongest support in the more populous cities of Portland and Eugene.

Also worth noting 82% of respondents said that they would not change their minds.

Oregon has seven Electoral College votes. The state last voted for a Republican in the Reagan landslide of 1984. It was one of ten states that Michael Dukakis carried.

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There is at least one memorable line in the otherwise forgettable movie Matrix Revolutions. Rama Chandra patiently explains to the hero that ”Love is a word, what matters is the connection that word implies”.  If you add “the reaction the word produces or the emotion the word elicits”, this can be said of most words. Senator Obama has famously said, “words matter”.  I could not agree more.  The foundation of civilized discourse is an agreed upon vocabulary.  In the pitch and roll of this political season some words seem to have lost their impact if not their meaning.  Take irony for example. Wikipedia gives us this:

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Here are a few articles from both the US and international media about the US Presidential race. Highlights of each article provided with a link to the full article.

The Next President
By Ambassador Richard C. Holbrooke in the Tages Spiegel Zeitung.

The next president of the United States of America will inherit leadership of a nation that is still the most powerful in the world, a nation that could, and must, again inspire, mobilize, and lead the world.

At the same time, his core challenge will be nothing less than to re-create a sense of national purpose and strength, after a period of drift, decline, and disastrous mistakes. He will need to rebuild productive working relationships with friends and allies. He must revitalize a flagging economy; tame a budget awash in red ink; re-examine every aspect of relations with Russia; tackle the growing danger of nuclear proliferation; improve the defense of the homeland against global terrorists while putting more pressure on al-Qaeda, especially in Pakistan; and, of course, manage two wars simultaneously, a daunting agenda which will require what the Declaration of Independence called “a decent respect to the opinions of mankind.”

Obama Profile: Ability to Evolve and Adapt
By Kevin Fagan in the San Francisco Chronicle. This article is what is referred to as a “fluff” piece.

There have been many such transformational periods for the 47-year-old Democratic nominee for the American presidency. And each has been crucial to creating who he is.

He’s been a pot-smoking surfer dude, an American transplant to Muslim-heavy Indonesia, a hip California college kid, a street-smart black-community organizer, a suit-wearing legal wunderkind at Harvard, a scrappy civil rights attorney and a solemn top-flight law professor.

And that was all before Obama made his leap into politics, where he’s traded eight years in the Illinois Senate and four years in the U.S. Senate for a breathtakingly quick vault into the first real electoral contention by a black man for the presidency in this country’s history.

If there is one determining characteristic of this young nominee, it is that he intensely educates and redefines himself at key junctures in his life. Those who know him best say he would not be at the threshold of history today if he did not possess that ability to adapt.

Men Give McCain an Early Edge
By Darrel Rowland in the Columbus Dispatch. This article largely covers a recent poll in Ohio that showed McCain ahead. I reported on the poll yesterday but this adds some more colour and background.

“The selection of Palin as McCain’s running mate may be causing some undecided Democrats, and women, to take a second look at the Republican ticket,” said Eric W. Rademacher, co-director of the Ohio Poll.

“Once the period of ‘the newness of the ticket’ passes, it will be worth watching to see how many ’second looks’ turn into committed votes as we get closer to Election Day.”

Party loyalty also is a key factor in McCain’s lead. He is winning 90 percent of Republican support; Obama is getting 82 percent backing from Democrats. McCain also is up 3 points among independents.

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The Obama campaign has recently a new Internet-only ad. The ad is part of Senator Obama’s strategy to paint Senator McCain has tied to Washington lobbyists. The ad, while cute, isn’t exactly hard hitting and, of course, has its own problems such Obama’s own ties to lobbyists which while not as up front as McCain’s are certainly there. Tom Daschle is a lobbyist for example. Furthermore, it is interesting that Obama would still want to tie to McCain to Big Oil when McCain did not vote for the Bush Cheney Energy Policy unlike Obama and when Governor Palin has been in the forefront in taking a tougher negotiating stance with oil companies.

Some people seem to forget that Senator Obama voted for the Bush Cheney Energy Policy, I haven’t and I won’t.

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