A new poll out tonight from the Minneapolis Star Tribune shows the race in the land of ten thousand lakes in a dead heat with Senator Obama and Senator McCain tied at 45%. For McCain, this is quite a reversal of fortune. He has erased a 13 point deficit since May.
Minnesota is one of the bluest states in the United States. It last voted for a Republican in the Nixon landslide of 1972. Minnesota was one of the few states to buck the trend of the Reagan landslides of 1980 and 1984. In 2004, Senator Kerry won Minnesota by 3.48% though he only won nine of Minnesota’s 10 Electoral College votes. An unfaithful elector cast a vote for Senator John Edwards. Since 1932, Minnesota has voted for the Republican just three times — Eisenhower in 1952 and 1956 and then Nixon in 1972.
Minnesota has become a battleground in a presidential campaign that has dramatically tightened nationwide.
A new Star Tribune Minnesota Poll shows that the race is now a dead heat between Barack Obama and John McCain, each supported by 45 percent of likely voters in the state.
The new poll likely will stoke both sides’ efforts during the final 51 days until the election, triggering a barrage of advertising, grass-roots politicking and, potentially, stepped-up visits by the candidates.
The poll found that McCain has made gains across the board since a May Minnesota Poll that showed him trailing by 13 points. He has picked up considerable support among men and to a lesser degree among women. He also has boosted his standing with whites, young voters and all levels of household income and education.
Congratulations to the Village People! Today, they got a star on Hollywood’s Walk of Fame. The story from the Los Angeles Times:
Hollywood was overflowing with costumed characters Friday as disco music fans turned out to watch the Indian, the cowboy, the policeman, the construction worker, the biker and the soldier receive a star on the Hollywood Walk of Fame.
Hundreds experienced a 1970s flashback as the Village People were recognized for their catchy, kitschy tunes, including their signature hit, “YMCA.” Fittingly, their star at 6529 Hollywood Blvd. is a block north of Hollywood’s YMCA.
I as noted last week, media coverage of Senator Biden was slim and next to none. Then he was featured in only 2% of media stories on the US Presidential race. The only time, Biden makes news is when he either makes a gaffe such as when he noted that Hillary Clinton might have been a better choice for Vice President or when somebody asks where he is. Still, the Obama campaign has high hopes for finding a more dynamic role for Biden. From KATC News:
Remember Joe Biden? Barack Obama’s running mate is the VP candidate we haven’t been hearing so much about, but he’s about to take on a more prominent role.
Campaign officials say Biden’s focus will not be on his GOP counterpart, Sarah Palin, but on his old friend from Congress John McCain.
Advisers say Biden’s argument will be that he knows McCain well enough to say that even though he’s right on character, he’s wrong on the issues and would be a dangerous choice for president in these times.
The Delaware senator is scheduled to give two major speeches framing the race in advance of the presidential debates. He’ll address domestic policy Monday in Michigan, and talk about national security later in the month in Baltimore.
And Biden will be helping validate Obama with Jewish voters, Hillary Clinton’s backers, union members and other middle-class and working-class voters.
Below the a fold a story from the Washington Post on the lost and forgotten Joe Biden. (more…)
First off, I tend to be cautious on Zogby’s polling data, perhaps as a result of TalkLeft’s BTD’s own suspicions as to the demographic mix used by Zogby. Most polls have a larger sample size and while polling is not an exact science, it is a science and so perhaps Zobgy has his sample well-defined in terms of accuracy. The other criticism of Zogby is that his polls are Internet-based as opposed to telephone based. Yet to be fair, Zogby has been ahead of the curve earlier than other pollsters in pointing to breaks and trends in the US Presidential contest. In this sense, it is perhaps best to consider Zogby polling as a leading indicator.
Summary: McCain – 49.1% Obama – 42.8% Not Sure/Other – 8.1% “Still very close here. In a state that loves John McCain, and handed Obama a bruising defeat, McCain has a higher favorability rating.” Electoral Votes: 4, Too close to call. Methodology: Zogby International conducted an online survey of 433 likely voters. The poll ran from Sept. 9-12. It carries a margin of error of +/- 4.8 percentage points.
Pennsylvania
Summary: McCain – 49.1% Obama – 44.3% Not Sure/Other – 6.6% “This is a classic case of polling as a snapshot in time. We’re turning Pennsylvania purple today, as McCain takes a small edge. But as in Ohio, we are watching this closely and things could change in this classically blue state.”
I chose to subscribe to Rasmussen Reports as my main source for polling and demographic data. I also follow the Survey USA polls closely but if other polls start showing what Zogby shows then I will up the investment and subscribe to their package. In the meantime, I would still treat these results with a grain of salt.
The Obama campaign released a new ad today entitled It’s Over. It’s probably the most effective ad yet from the Obama campaign. The ad hits Senator McCain over his ties to lobbyists within his campaign. The ad is a 30 second spot. The ad is running in Arizona, California, Colorado, Delaware, Indiana, Maine, Michigan, Mississippi, Missouri, Nebraska, New Jersey, North Carolina, Ohio, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Vermont, Virginia, Washington and Wisconsin. Oklahoma? Mississippi? Someone must have money to burn.
The Obama campaign also launched a website, McLobbyist.com, highlighting seven former lobbyists who are now top McCain officials, including campaign manager Rick Davis. The website brands the officials “The McCain Seven” and charges: “John McCain has had at least 159 lobbyists running his campaign and raising money for him. The McCain Seven — all lobbyists — control the campaign filling roles from senior foreign policy adviser and finance co-chair all the way up to head of command, campaign manager. The McCain Seven make sure special interests come first.”
Obama, of course, has his own ties to lobbyists. Tom Daschle for starters. Hunter Biden was forced to quit his job after it was revealed that Senator Biden’s son was a lobbyist.
South Dakota last voted for a Democrat in the 1964 LBJ landslide. Native son George McGovern failed to carry the state in 1972 and Tom Daschle’s leading role in the Obama campaign is providing no boost in South Dakota. Today’s Rasmussen Reports poll for South Dakota shows Senator McCain leading Senator Obama by a whopping 17 points, 54% to 37%.
Though I always thought it illusionary for the Obama campaign to believe that they could remake the map in the Prairie states and in the West to the degree that they believe they can, this poll for the Obama campaign has to be disappointing. In July, Obama was within four points of McCain in South Dakota. Obama has lost 13 points since. It’s a similiar tale in Montana and North Dakota where narrow McCain leads are now wide margins.
In South Dakota, John McCain has opened a seventeen point lead over Barack Obama. The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds McCain with 54% of the vote and Obama with 37% (see crosstabs).
That’s a big change from July when the Democrat had pulled to within four points in this traditionally Republican state. In March, McCain led Obama by ten.
A similar pattern was found in the neighboring states of Montana and North Dakota. All three were mentioned as part of Obama’s effort to expand the Electoral College map but McCain has now opened a double digit lead in all three.
Minnesota’s Senate race has the incumbent GOP Senator Norm Coleman ahead by one point over the Democratic Farm-Labor candidate Al Franken, the satirist. It is shaping up to be a bruising campaign.
In the Silver state, Senator McCain continues to cling to narrow three point lead over Senator Obama. McCain leads 49% to 46% unchanged from a month ago. Nevada is one of the key battleground states in this election. Traditionally, it has been a solid GOP state. It lasted voted for a Democrat in 1964 in the LBJ landslide. But the state’s population is the nation’s fastest growing fueled by growth in Las Vegas area and with that there has been a demographic shift that might change the political outlook of the state.
Nevada’s tremendous population growth has dramatically changed the state’s racial and ethnic picture beginning in 1980. The Hispanic population grew 131% between l980 and 1990 giving the state some 124,000 Hispanics by 1990 and it hasn’t stopped growing since. The booming job market in Nevada offered primarily poverty level or near- poverty level wages to many of these non-English speaking and unskilled workers. Since 2000, Nevada’s Hispanic population has grown by 65%, but the Hispanic electorate has grown by more than 100% as more and more immigrants become citizens. Today there are 600,000 Hispanics in Nevada. Hispanics make up about 11% of the Nevada electorate. They are about a quarter of the state’s 2.5 million population, according to the U.S. Census, but a large proportion are ineligible to vote because they are not citizens or are under 18. Those who are citizens and registered are overwhelmingly Democratic.
In Nevada, Hispanics were about 15% of the voters in the Jan. 19 Democratic caucuses, and 65% chose Clinton, according to exit polls. But Hispanics remain outside the PUMA movement. In a poll from Las Vegas Review Journal in June, Obama beating McCain among Hispanics, 53 to 28%, but leaving a substantial number, 19%, still undecided.
In Nevada, John McCain continues to hold a very slight advantage over Barack Obama.
The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey shows McCain attracting 49% of the vote while Obama earns 46%. That three-point advantage is unchanged from a month ago. The two candidates have been within three points of each other for four straight monthly polls, but McCain has held a slight advantage in five of the last six.
Nevada is one of three southwestern states targeted by the Obama campaign. Like New Mexico and Colorado it went narrowly for President Bush four years ago and all three are very competitive this time around.
Here are a few articles from both the US and international media about the US Presidential race. Highlights of each article provided with a link to the full article.
The most important voters in close races are the ones that candidates can count on to show up on Election Day – and seniors may just become the new “soccer moms” in this presidential election. Older Americans have the highest turnout rate of any age group – 69 percent in 2004. And they’ll wield clout in this tight presidential contest because a number of the swing states, like Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania, have a lot of older residents.
In Palin, Working Independents See Themselves
By John Ibittson in Toronto’s Globe and Mail.
A new Associated Press-GfK poll confirms that the Palin effect has transformed the attitude of white women voters, who now prefer McCain-Palin over Obama-Biden 53 per cent to 40 per cent. If minority women are added in, Mr. Obama moves into a five-point lead, but African American and Hispanic voters are less likely to vote than their white counterparts.
Among whites overall, Mr. McCain leads Mr. Obama 55 per cent to 37 per cent. The Republican ticket has a 23-point lead among rural voters and a 13-point lead with voters over 65, a demographic that typically produces a high turnout.
Obama Bloodied by Team McCain in Electoral Cage Fight
By Michael Tomasky in the UK Guardian.
The McCain campaign is the news-cycle campaign. It is built around its television advertisements and attention-getting claims made on the stump that are all about winning that day’s news cycle.
The basic idea is, if you win enough news cycles, you’ve dominated the discourse, you’ve manipulated the news coverage, you’ve gotten your message out at the other fellow’s expense, you’ve kept him on the defensive.
A new ad from the McCain campaign and his second overall on the issue of immigration. The ad is a 30 second spot. It is a positive ad and largely aims to reclaim his role as one of the most noted and moderate voices on immigration reform.
