In one of the clearest indications that the cartographer may be actually be Senator McCain and not Senator Obama, a new Rasmussen Reports poll out this morning shows Obama leading McCain by just two points, 49% to 47%. A month ago, Obama enjoyed a 12 point lead. On September 7th, a SUSA poll still had Obama up by 4 points. The race in Washington state is now a toss up.
Washington is the latest state to show a strong western surge for John McCain since he added Alaska Governor Sarah Palin to the Republican ticket.
The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in Washington finds Barack Obama still ahead, but barely. It’s Obama 49%, McCain 47%. A month ago, Obama was up by twelve percentage points. Recent polls have shown McCain gains in Montana, New Mexico and North Dakota.
Among Democrats, Obama now attracts 83% of the vote, down six points from last month. However, the big change comes among unaffiliated voters who now favor McCain by a 48% to 43% margin. In August, before the two parties held their conventions, Obama led by twelve among voters not affiliated with either major political party.
McCain is now viewed favorably by 60% of Washington voters, up eight points from 52% in the previous survey. Obama is viewed favorably by 58%, which is essentially unchanged.
As for the running mates, Biden is viewed favorably by 56%, Palin by 51%. However, feelings are much stronger about Palin—39% voice a Very Favorable opinion of her while 31% have a Very Unfavorable view. For Biden, the comparable numbers are 26% Very Favorable and 22% Very Unfavorable.
Among unaffiliated voters, McCain is viewed favorably by 66%, Obama by 55%, Palin by 53%, and Biden by 49%.
Fifty-one percent (51%) say that Palin was the right choice for McCain to make while 40% say that Biden was the right choice for Obama.
By a 53% to 36% margin, unaffiliated voters say McCain made the right choice. Thirty-five percent (35%) of unaffiliateds say that Obama made the right choice while 33% disagree.
Seventy-six percent (76%) of Obama voters say they’re voting enthusiastically for their candidate while 19% are voting primarily against McCain.
Sixty-nine percent (69%) of McCain voters are voting enthusiastically for him while 27% are voting primarily against Obama.
As has been shown in other polls, Obama continues to lag McCain in securing his base. In Washington state, Obama is only getting 83% of his Democratic base and it has dropped six points over the past month. And consistent with polls across the nation, independents in Washington state are responding tp the Palin factor. In Washington state, McCain has turned a 12 point deficit among independents into a five point advantage, that’s a 17 point swing.
Washington state has 11 Electoral College votes. John Kerry carried Washington by 7 points in 2004; Al Gore carried Washington by 6 points in 2000. Washington state last voted Republican in the Reagan landslide of 1984.