Yesterday’s Quinnipiac poll showed that Senator Obama had a five point lead but I noted that the timing of that poll (September 4th through September 9th) made it likely that the Quinnipiac poll understated Senator McCain’s strength in the Buckeye state. Looking at the national polls, the break towards McCain began on September 7th so it is probable that the Quinnipiac poll no longer reflected a fast-moving trend towards McCain. Today’s Insider Advantage poll (pdf.) seems to bear my assertion out. This poll was taken on September 10th after the McCain surge. It has McCain up by one, though that’s well within the margin of error +/- 4.3%.

McCain leads 48% to 47% with 3% undecided and 2% preferring a third party candidate. The race in Ohio thus remains a dead heat with a trend towards McCain. The demographic data is below the fold.

I’d expect McCain to solidify a larger lead among seniors. His 52% to 41% lead seems narrow compared to other polls where McCain holds 55% or more of this age group.

Among men, McCain leads 56% to 41% while Obama leads among women 51% to 42%. This fits the pattern developing in the national polls that McCain is making strides among women, especially white women. Also fitting the national pattern is the degree to which candidate has consolidated his party’s base behind them. In Ohio, McCain has garned 93% of the GOP base. One of Obama’s major problems remain the holdouts from the legions of Clinton supporters. Obama has only 81% of Democrats behind him in Ohio. 15% of Ohio Democrats are opting for McCain.

Independents have been trending for McCain since the Palin selection and in Ohio McCain has taken a 51% to 34% lead with many still undecided.

The Ohio Poll by the University of Cincinnati
The Ohio Poll from the Institute for Policy Research at the University of Cincinnati also has a poll out today and it shows McCain leading 48% to 44% with 5% opting for third party candidates.

Eric W. Rademacher, The Ohio Poll’s Co-Director, said, “Both campaigns have many hours of work ahead if they want to secure a path to the presidency through Ohio.” Two findings of the Poll suggest the presidential race in Ohio may have a long way to go:

First, a large portion of likely voters (23%) may still be “up for grabs”: nineteen percent say they might change their mind and switch candidates before Election Day, and four percent are undecided
as to which candidate they will choose.

Second, more Democrats than Republicans currently express intent to cross party lines on November 4. While 11 percent of Democratic likely voters currently say they will vote for McCain, just five percent of Republican likely voters currently intend to vote for Obama. While this bears watching, early partisan “defectors” often “come home” to support their party’s candidate by Election Day.

Rademacher noted, “After a relatively quiet summer, Ohio voters are becoming more engaged with the
presidential campaigns. The dynamics of this race may change as voters make final decisions based on
candidate performances in Ohio and on the national stage.”

George W. Bush carried Ohio narrowly in 2004 and the state is once again a critical battleground to the success of each candidate.

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