This one is for Riverdaughter! There’s good news and bad news for Senator Obama in the Garden state, a state that last went for the GOP in the Reagan landslide of 1984. Obama does lead among registered voters 47% to 40% but his leads narrows substantially when the poll only includes likely voters. Among likely voters, Obama leads Senator McCain by a 48% to 45%, a three point margin. The margin of error for the Marist Poll is +/- 3.5%.
Democratic Presidential Candidate Barack Obama Leads Republican Opponent John McCain by 7 Percentage Points in New Jersey: With 15 electoral votes up for grabs in New Jersey, 47% of registered voters in the state say they support Senator Barack Obama for president while 40% say they back Senator John McCain. That’s the same margin in New Jersey with which former Democratic Presidential candidate John Kerry beat President George W. Bush in the 2004 presidential election. However, Obama’s lead shrinks when looking at likely voters, including those who are leaning toward a specific candidate. 48% of likely voters support Obama while 45% are behind McCain. So, how does support break down along party lines among likely voters? 83% of likely Democratic voters say they support their party’s candidate, Barack Obama, while 87% of likely Republican voters back John McCain. And, among New Jersey’s all-important likely Independent voters, including those leaning toward a candidate, 51% support Barack Obama compared with 41% for McCain.
Takeaway
The number that strikes out at me is that only 83% of Democratics are supporting Obama. The full poll has a lot more data, so check it out. Also in this poll from Marist College, Senator Frank Lautenberg leads his Republican challenger, Dick Zimmer, by 11 percentage points among registered voters in New Jersey. 47% say they support the Democratic incumbent while 36% are behind his opponent, Zimmer. When factoring in likely voters, including those leaning toward a candidate, Lautenberg leads Zimmer by the same 11 percentage point margin. He receives 51% to Zimmer’s 40%. 8% of likely voters say they are still undecided.
The 527 groups are in high gear right now. The conservative group Freeedom Defense Fund has released a new ad highlighting Senator Obama’s relationship with the controversial Reverend Jeremiah Wright, Obama’s pastor of 20 years. The ad is a 30 second spot and running only in Michigan where Obama leads by five point according to the last Rasmussen Reports poll.
The Freedom Defense Fund is a 527 group, a type of American tax-exempt organization named after a section of the United States tax code, 26 U.S.C. § 527 that espouse political causes.
A new Rasmussen Reports poll in the Show Me state shows Senator McCain holding a steady six point lead over Senator Obama, 51% to 45%.
John McCain continues to enjoy a modest lead over Barack Obama in the race for Missouri’s Electoral College votes.
The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in Missouri shows the Republican presidential candidate attracting 51% of the vote while his Democratic opponent earns 45%. This is similar to results from both last month and the month before. In fact, since wrapping up the Republican nomination in early March, McCain has led Obama in every poll but one.
The sole exception came in a poll conducted on June 3, the night Obama clinched the Democratic nomination. On that night, he held a statistically insignificant one-point lead over McCain.
The Obama campaign released a new ad entitled real change. It features Senator Obama speaking directly to the camera taking about real change means to him. It’s probably his best ad so far even though I vehemently disagree with his assertion that he is bringing people together. If anything, Obama is the most polaraizing Presidential candidate in the modern era. His unfavourable ratings approach 45%. His very unfavourable ratings stand at 28%, six points higher than Senator McCain’s. In poll after poll, at least a fifth of his own party repudiates him. In the Congressional races, the GOP is actually gaining ground. If he is bringing people together it’s in the GOP, not the Democratic party. The ad is a 30 second spot. It will air on national channels.
The McCain campaign released a new Spanish language ad today attacking Senator Obama over immigration reform. The ad is a 30-second spot. The ad will air in Colorado, Nevada and New Mexico. Here’s the English language script.
English Script For “Which Side Are They On?” (TV:30)
ANNCR: Obama and his Congressional allies say they are on the side of immigrants. But are they?
The press reports that their efforts were ‘poison pills’ that made immigration reform fail.
The result:
No guest worker program.
No path to citizenship.
No secure borders.
No reform.
Is that being on our side?
Obama and his Congressional allies ready to block immigration reform, but not ready to lead.
JOHN MCCAIN: I’m John McCain and I approve this message.
ANNCR: Paid for by McCain-Palin 2008 and the Republican National Committee. Approved by McCain-Palin 2008.
Senator Barack Obama will intensify his assault against Senator John McCain, with new television advertisements and more forceful attacks by the candidate and surrogates beginning Friday morning, as he confronts an invigorated Republican presidential ticket and increasing nervousness in the Democratic ranks.
This ad is what they mean by “intensify his assault against Senator John McCain.” Just how stupid is the Obama ad director anyway?
In one of the clearest indications that the cartographer may be actually be Senator McCain and not Senator Obama, a new Rasmussen Reports poll out this morning shows Obama leading McCain by just two points, 49% to 47%. A month ago, Obama enjoyed a 12 point lead. On September 7th, a SUSA poll still had Obama up by 4 points. The race in Washington state is now a toss up.
Washington is the latest state to show a strong western surge for John McCain since he added Alaska Governor Sarah Palin to the Republican ticket.
The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in Washington finds Barack Obama still ahead, but barely. It’s Obama 49%, McCain 47%. A month ago, Obama was up by twelve percentage points. Recent polls have shown McCain gains in Montana, New Mexico and North Dakota.
Yesterday’s Quinnipiac poll showed that Senator Obama had a five point lead but I noted that the timing of that poll (September 4th through September 9th) made it likely that the Quinnipiac poll understated Senator McCain’s strength in the Buckeye state. Looking at the national polls, the break towards McCain began on September 7th so it is probable that the Quinnipiac poll no longer reflected a fast-moving trend towards McCain. Today’s Insider Advantage poll (pdf.) seems to bear my assertion out. This poll was taken on September 10th after the McCain surge. It has McCain up by one, though that’s well within the margin of error +/- 4.3%.
McCain leads 48% to 47% with 3% undecided and 2% preferring a third party candidate. The race in Ohio thus remains a dead heat with a trend towards McCain. The demographic data is below the fold. (more…)
Wonder no more when the heavy fighting would commence. The battle is on and just look at the number of ads and the number of topics broached. These eight ads are from Our Country Deserves Better PAC, a 527 group, which is a type of American tax-exempt organization named after a section of the United States tax code, 26 U.S.C. § 527, that espouses political causes. Their cause just happens to be the destruction of Senator Obama’s campaign. For more background information on this PAC, please visit SourceWatch.
Patriotism Problems — Obama is No Ronald Reagan
Not Our Values — Obama Mocks Christian Values
Semper Fidelis — Obama on the Surge
Illegal Immigration
Hillary on Obama
Wrong Values — Obama’s Ties to Palestinians & Reverend Wright
Higher Taxes — Obama ‘The Most Liberal’ Senator
Obama is not the Senate’s most liberal Senator. That honour goes to Senator Sheldon Whitehouse of Rhode Island. But this is a game of perception, not reality.
Liberal Policies
Obama once claimed that Senator Clinton was throwing the kitchen sink at him. Here are whole kitchens. Knives sold separately. Offer not valid where void. On to 2012.
The McCain campaign unveiled another ad late yesterday defending Governor Palin against attacks coming from both the Obama campaign and Obama surrogates. The ad is a 30 second spot. The McCain campaign did not state where the ad would run, only noting that it would air in battleground states.
