A Quinnipiac University Poll out this morning show a widening lead for Senator McCain in Florida and a widening one for Senator Obama in Ohio with a tightening race in Pennsylvania. Since 1960, no one has won the White House without taking two of these three largest swing states in the Electoral College. For McCain to win the Presidency, he has to hold Ohio which Bush narrowly won in 2004 or aim to take either Pennsylvania or Michigan away from the Democratic column. At this point, the Electoral College scenarios would still seem to favour Senator Obama though the trend seems to favour Senator McCain.
Senator Obama leads Senator McCain 48-45 in the Keystone state, but McCain has received significant support among white women and independents to narrow the gap from seven a month ago down to three now according to the Quinnipiaic poll. Obama has held a 49-42 percent lead over McCain in the state the past two months. As a measure of comparison, the most recent Rasmussen Reports poll from August 21st had Obama leading by five points.
Obama leads 51 – 41 percent with women, compared to 53 – 37 percent August 26. McCain leads 51 – 45 percent among men. Obama leads 58 – 38 percent among voters 18 to 34 years old and gets 49 percent of voters 35 to 54 to McCain’s 47 percent. Voters over 55 back McCain 50 – 43 percent.
Independent voters split with 45 percent for the Republican and 44 percent for the Democrat. This compares to a 48 – 38 percent Obama lead August 26. Among former Clinton supporters, 22 percent support McCain, compared to 25 percent August 26.
McCain gets a 54 – 34 percent favorability, compared to Obama’s 56 – 29 percent. Palin’s favorability is 39 – 26 percent, while Biden gets a 53 – 22 percent score.
The economy is the most important issue, 51 percent of Pennsylvania voters say, while 12 percent list the war in Iraq; 11 percent cite health care; 10 percent list energy policy and 8 percent say terrorism.
The choice of a vice presidential candidate will have little impact on their November vote, 59 percent of Pennsylvania likely voters say.
“While GOP vice president candidate Sarah Palin undoubtedly helped McCain among white women, Obama got some help among Catholics in Pennsylvania from his running mate, Sen. Joe Biden, a Catholic from Scranton,” said Clay F. Richards, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.
Voters in Pennsylvania approve of Palin’s selection by a margin of 55% to 33%. Since August 26th, McCain’s support among white women is up five points in Pennsylvania.
The PPP poll out yesterday for Florida had McCain up by five points. This Quinnipiac University poll puts the margin at seven points with McCain leading 50% to 43%. In the previous Quinnipiac poll from August 26th, McCain led by four points 47% to 43% indicating that McCain’s gains have more than likely come from a gain among undecided voters more than an erosion of support for Obama.
Florida men likely voters back McCain 54 – 41 percent, while women go 47 percent for McCain and 45 percent for Obama, the first time he has trailed among women. White voters back McCain 59 – 35 percent. Obama leads 55 – 37 percent with voters 18 to 34 years old; McCain leads 52 – 41 percent among voters 35 to 54, and 54 – 39 percent with voters over 55.
Independent voters back McCain 50 – 43 percent, compared to 47 – 39 percent August 26 and 24 percent of those who backed Sen. Hillary Clinton in the Democratic primary now support McCain, up from 14 percent August 26.
By a 58 – 29 percent margin, Florida voters have a favorable opinion of McCain, compared to 49 – 35 percent for Obama. Palin gets a 47 – 23 percent favorability, with 38 – 28 percent for Biden.
The economy is the most important issue in the election, 49 percent of Florida voters say, as 12 percent cite the war in Iraq; 11 percent list terrorism; 9 percent say health care and 8 percent say energy policy.
Florida likely voters say 58 – 38 percent that the vice presidential candidates picked by McCain and Obama will have little impact on which candidate they will pick on Election Day.
“Sen. McCain has opened up a sizable lead over Sen. Obama in Florida on his ability to capture most demographic groups,” said Brown. “He wins voters over age 35 overwhelmingly; takes independents and keeps a larger share of Republicans than Obama captures of Democrats.”
In Ohio, Obama now leads 49% to 44% as opposed to holding a narrow 44% to 43% lead back on August 26th in the Quinnipiac poll.
Obama leads 52 – 42 percent among Ohio women, compared to 51 – 37 percent August 26. Men split 47 – 47 percent. Obama leads 64 – 33 percent among voters 18 to 34, while voters 35 to 54 split with 48 percent for McCain and 46 percent for Obama. Voters over 55 back McCain 48 – 44 percent.
Independent voters back McCain 47 – 43 percent, compared to a 42 – 38 percent Obama lead August 26, and 28 percent of former Clinton supporters now back McCain, compared to 23 percent last time.
McCain gets a 53 – 34 percent favorability in Ohio, identical to Obama’s 53 – 33 percent. Palin’s favorability is 41 – 22 percent, compared to 36 – 22 percent for Biden.
For 52 percent of Ohio voters, the economy is the biggest issue, while 11 percent cite health care; 10 percent say the war in Iraq; 9 percent list energy policy and 8 percent say terrorism.
The choice of a running mate will have little impact on their vote, 61 percent of Ohio likely voters say.
“Sen. McCain and Sen. Obama are getting the same level of party loyalty and the Republican is even winning slightly among independents. But Obama is ahead because there are so many more people who identify as Democrats – a legacy of the 2006 election and scandals involving former Gov. Robert Taft’s administration,” Brown said.
A note about these Quinnipiac Polls: they were taken between September 5th and September 9th. The break towards McCain was set in motion on September 7th so these polls might slightly overstate Obama’s numbers.
From September 5 through September 9, Quinnipiac University surveyed:
– 1,032 Florida likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.1 percent;
– 1,367 Ohio likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.7 percent;
– 1,001 Pennsylvania likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.1 percent.