You may have noticed things have gotten a bit strange lately. Many people are willing to write this off as simply an “election year”. I am not so sure. One particular story that (fortunately for those responsible) may have failed to break through the lipstick, fish, pigs, pit bulls and honor stories in recent days describes some very strange things are that are happening beneath the Franco-Swiss border near Geneva Switzerland. The very location should disquiet the serious. Apparently more than eighty (foreign) countries and hundreds of universities and godless scientists have pooled their funds in a misguided attempt to find out some arcane stuff they have no business knowing. I mean really, if we were supposed to be able to detect dark matter it would be, you know, detectable. (more…)
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The extent to which Obama has been overshadowed was underlined by a report from the Pew Research Centre showing Mrs Palin was a significant factor in 60 per cent of campaign stories last week and Mr McCain in 52 per cent, compared with 22 per cent for Mr Obama and only 2 per cent for his running-mate, Joe Biden.
On the bright side, Senator Biden made some news. On the down side, it is not exactly going to help the Obama cause to second guess his choice of Vice Presidential especially when you’re the one he chose. For the next two months, Biden has to think that he is the best thing since cream cheese and not argue that there is a new and improved brand on the shelf even though that is obvious. It is painfully obvious that Senator Clinton should have been the nominee.
No doubt the Palin factor is big in her native Alaska. The Rasmussen Reports poll in Alaska shows a solid lift for McCain even in the last week. On September 5th, Anchorage Press showed McCain up by 19 over Obama. In this poll, McCain leads 64% to 33% or nearly two-to-one.
John McCain’s selection of Alaska Governor Sarah Palin as his running mate has made a huge difference in her home state.
McCain now leads his Democratic opponent nearly two-to one, 64% to 33%, according to a new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of voters in the state. It is the first poll taken since Palin, who is extremely popular in Alaska, joined the GOP national ticket (crosstabs available for Premium Members).
In late July, the race was much closer in Alaska, traditionally one of the most Republican states in the country. McCain held a five-point lead over Obama.
This is should not be a surprise really. McCain is pulling away in a state that last went Democratic in 1964 and before that 1936. Still back in July, Obama and McCain were in a statitical dead heat. No longer. So much for Obama the cartographer.
Like neighboring Montana, North Dakota has become a lot friendlier to John McCain in the first polling conducted since Sarah Palin was nominated to be the Republican Vice Presidential nominee.
The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of North Dakota voters shows McCain with a 14-percentage point lead over Barack Obama, 55% to 41%. In early July, the candidates were tied in the state and Obama was looking to the Dakotas and Montana as a way to expand the electoral map for Democrats. Now, the Democratic nominee appears to be more focused on traditional battleground states.
McCain now leads by 22 percentage points among independent voters. In July, Obama had a ten-point advantage among those voters.
In North Dakota, McCain continues to enjoy a double digit lead among men and has gained a lot of ground among the state’s women voters. The Republican ticket now leads by eleven among North Dakota women after trailing by nine in July.
This is the most anticipated poll of the day because the race is so close for New Mexico’s five Electoral College vote. The Rasmussen Reports poll in New Mexico shows McCain reversing an Obama lead. The last poll from August showed Obama leading by four points, now McCain leads by two. The poll has four point margin of error so in effect the race is in New Mexico remains a dead heat but trending McCain.
For the first time all year, John McCain has topped Barack Obama in a New Mexico poll. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the state shows McCain attracting 49% of the vote while Obama earns 47%.
Although the two-point lead is not statistically significant in a poll with a four-point margin of sampling error, it’s quite an improvement for McCain from August. At that time, Obama was ahead 48% to 44% (with leaners included). Since then, the Republican has gained ground among Hispanic voters and those not affiliated with either major party.
McCain leads among voters over 40 while Obama has the edge among younger voters. McCain leads among men while Obama leads among women.
While yesterday’s SUSA poll showed McCain up by 20 points in the Tar Heel state, this Public Policy Polling poll (pdf.) shows the race much tighter with McCain leading by four over Obama. One possible difference is that this PPP includes Libertarian candidate Bob Barr polling at 4%.
McCain’s selection of Sarah Palin as his running mate is a popular one with Tar Heel voters. 42% say that it makes them more likely to vote for him, compared to 32% who say they are more likely to vote for Barack Obama because of his choice of Joe Biden as his running mate.
“With both conventions in the rear view mirror, North Carolina still appears to be competitive,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “But it will probably take exceptional turnout from groups favorable to him to put Barack Obama over the top. He’s not going to win the state by persuading people who voted for Bush in 2004 to switch sides.”
If the race is this close, then it would make sense why Obama pulled his staff from Georgia with some of it coming here to North Carolina. His hope seems to be predicated on increasing voter registrations. Biggest problem that I could see for Obama in North Carolina in this poll is that while McCain is winning 89% of the GOP base, Obama is winning only 73% of the Democratic base.
A new Public Policy Polling poll (pdf.) in Florida shows McCain increase his lead over Obama to five points. In the previous PPP poll, McCain led by three points. This new poll puts McCain outside the margin of error.
John McCain’s choice of Sarah Palin as his running mate appears to be a hit with Florida voters. 45% of respondents said it made them more likely to support McCain while just 36% said the choice of Joe Biden makes them more likely to choose Obama.
McCain’s support with white voters is at a new high, as he leads 61-34 with them. Obama will have a hard time winning the state if he can’t cut down that margin and also increase his lead with Hispanic voters, among whom he currently leads 49-42.
McCain leads among men in Florida 51% to 42% and he leads among women 49% to 47%. Obama leads among voters 18 to 29 by an eight point margin 52% to 44%. McCain wins all the others though his lead in the 30 to 45 age group is a modest one point lead at 47% to 46%. In the 46 to 65 age group McCain ups his lead to 49% to 45% but just slaughtering Obama among seniors over the age of 65 57% to 38%.
A new McCain campaign ad again attacking Obama over his attacks on Governor Palin. It is a 30 second spot. The McCain campaign said the ad, which is actually called “FACT CHECK”, would be airing in “key states,” although it did not say where, or how extensive an ad buy the campaign planned. The problem for the Obama campaign is they really don’t have a response that they can make.
Announcer: The attacks on Governor Palin have been called “completely false”…”misleading”.
And, they’ve just begun.
The Journal reports Obama “air-dropped a mini-army of 30 lawyers, investigators and opposition researchers” into Alaska to dig dirt on Governor Palin.
As Obama drops in the polls, he’ll try to destroy her.
Obama’s “politics of hope”? Empty words.
John McCain: I’m John McCain and I approved this message.
Ah, the arrogance and hubris of the messiah from Honolulu truly is a wonder to behold. He could apologize but he won’t. Instead he will have that McCain ad running and running.
Obama’s charge might be true if it were true that only the McCain campaign is outraged or if they were the first to be outraged. Neither are true. The outrage goes far beyond the McCain campaign and it started long before the McCain camp put out an ad on the subject.
How out of touch can one be?
From the Los Angeles Times:
The emergence of Sarah Palin as a political force in the presidential race has left many top Democrats fretting that, just two weeks after their convention ended on an emotional high, Barack Obama’s campaign has suddenly lost its stride.
Obama has responded aggressively this week to Palin’s presence on the Republican ticket, using TV ads and campaign rallies to attack her contention that she is a political reformer who will take on the Washington establishment — a role Obama has long claimed as his alone.
The Good
There is actually some good news for Senator Obama this morning, he received the endorsement of former New York City Mayor Ed Koch. Newsmax has his full op-ed but here is his rationale:
So the issue for me is who will best protect and defend America.
I have concluded that the country is safer in the hands of Barack Obama, leader of the Democratic Party and protector of the philosophy of that party.
Protecting and defending the U.S. means more than defending us from foreign attacks. It includes defending the public with respect to their civil rights, civil liberties and other needs, e.g., national health insurance, the right of abortion, the continuation of Social Security, gay rights, other rights of privacy, fair progressive taxation, and a host of other needs and rights.
The Bad
The bad is a bit more plentiful. Let’s start with the Texas Two-Step. Yesterday, I noted how Obama was repositioning staff out of Georgia and into North Carolina and Michigan. Today, the Dallas Morning News is reporting that Obama is pulling staff out of Texas and sending them to New Mexico, Colorado and Missouri.
The reason the Obama campaign is pulling out of Georgia and Texas is that they are lost causes but there’s more to it than that. The other half of the equation is that where his staff is being redirected is where the Obama campaign feels that they are on the verge of a collapse. North Carolina is already lost. Yesterday a new SUSA North Carolina poll shows McCain with a 20 point lead that only a month ago was a still striking distance 8 points. The break in North Carolina was really from Saturday of last week on. My sense is that the Obama campaign sees the race slipping away in places they have to win. Obama has been to Michigan three times in the last week. He had a 7 point lead, it’s now one.