The McCain campaign released this ad earlier today. It is a 30 second spot attacking Senator Obama over various education proposals. It met with a furious response. Bill Burton, Obama’s press secretary, responded in a statement: “It is shameful and downright perverse for the McCain campaign to use a bill that was written to protect young children from sexual predators as a recycled and discredited political attack against a father of two young girls – a position that his friend Mitt Romney also holds. Last week, John McCain told Time magazine he couldn’t define what honor was. Now we know why.”

The background to all this is below the fold. (more…)

Even before the Democratic National Convention a number of leading Democratic leaders, most notably Governor Ted Strickland, Governor Phil Bredesen and Governor Ed Rendell, had voiced concern that the Obama campaign’s message was not resonating and called on Senator to tighten his talking points and avoid pontificating. For a brief interlude that seemed to take hold as Obama and Democratic surrogates honed the argument that McCain equaled more of the same. However with the selection of Governor Palin as Senator McCain’s running mate that strategy seems to have been set aside as the Obama campaign and the Democrats generally sought to make political hay out of issues peripheral to the Presidential contest. Even now a week and half after her selection, the Democratic message seems largely lost as they struggle to respond to the Palin factor.

With the pace being set by the McCain campaign and the Obama stuck in the mud with derisive comments (you can put lipstick on a pig and it’s still a pig), many Democratic leaders are increasingly worried that the race may be slipping away from Senator Obama. From The Hill:

Democrats in Congress are rattled over the momentum Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin (R) has brought to John McCain’s presidential campaign and disagree about how their candidate should respond.

Some Democrats say that Democratic nominee Barack Obama’s campaign must take a tougher approach and challenge Palin directly on her lack of experience and stance on abortion, creationism and federal earmarks. Other Democrats say they must tread carefully or risk alienating many voters who relate to Palin, a self-described hockey mom from a middle-class background, by appearing to bully her.

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No polls to report from Georgia, but clearly things aren’t too peachy for the Obama campaign there. As I reported earlier, the Obama campaign has pulled many of its staffers out of the state and sending them to other states including North Carolina. I also heard some were being redeployed to Michigan. Today’s SUSA North Carolina might suggest that the Obama campaign will start circling the wagons in the traditional battleground states where those of us who are traditional Democrats have long argued that this race will be won or lost.

From the Atlanta Journal-Constitution:

Nearly three weeks after dropping its TV ads, the Democratic presidential campaign of Barack Obama will shift personnel out of Georgia into more competitive states like North Carolina, staffers confirmed Tuesday.

The movement of resources reflects a quickly tightening, state-by-state race for the 270 electoral votes necessary to win the White House.

Campaign officials declined to specify how many of approximately 75 paid Obama staffers will be redeployed, and denied that the move signaled reduced expectations in the state.

“Even if a huge number of people left, we’d still have the largest presidential campaign staff in the history of the state of Georgia,” said Caroline Adelman, spokeswoman for the Obama campaign in Georgia.

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One of the Obama campaign’s assertions has been that Obama could remake the Electoral College map in the Mountain West turning red states blue. The Obama has long pointed to states like Nevada, New Mexico, Colorado and Montana as places that they believe they can win. It was one of the arguments pivoted during the race for the Democratic nomination and certainly the Obama campaign did well winning in these caucus states. It was one of the reasons he won the nomination. But winning these states in the general election is a far different matter as many in the Clinton campaign warned. Well, Obama can safely strike Montana from his redrawn map. A cartographer, Obama is not.

A Rasmussen Reports poll out tonight shows McCain opening up an eleven point lead in the Big Sky state. In July, the race was a dead heat.

John McCain has opened a double digit lead over Barack Obama in Montana. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the Treasure State finds McCain leading by eleven, 53% to 42%.

That’s quite a change from late July when the race was a toss-up. Montana has voted for a Republican candidate in nine of the last ten presidential elections but Obama had made clear his intention to compete for the state’s three Electoral College votes. The candidate himself spent the Fourth of July in Butte, Montana and his campaign ran significant television advertising in the state. However, just before the Democratic National Convention, Obama stopped advertising in Montana and several other traditionally Republican states.

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“We’re not running against Governor Palin.” — David Axelrod, the Obama campaign’s chief strategist, on “Fox News Sunday,” Sept. 7, 2008

True, at this point the Obama campaign is running against the political head winds of Hurricane Sarah and so far not being able to do much about it. Why is it the Republican party can so much better relate to the concerns of the American working class than the Democratic party? How is it that the Democratic party time after time puts up out of touch, aloof, and effete liberals who no doubt are well-meaning but just can’t seem to connect to with large swaths of the American electorate? It is not that the Democratic party doesn’t have candidates that can speak clearly and with conviction, it does. It just refuses to nominate them for the Presidency.

At some point the polls will become a self-fulling prophecy. By that I mean, it will give people on the fence a reason to pull away from Obama and towards McCain increasing the effect.

Bill Maher was on CNN saying that Palin is a “tremendous distraction.” She is a tremendous attraction. That’s why McCain is holding joint campaign appearances, not single ones. McCain is clearly better in these joint appearances. He’s more relaxed. He’s not wearing a suit anymore. He had a Navy cap on today. He’s feeding off the crowds and that has a snowball effect. I have been circumspect in saying that this race will be close. I still try to be but the chances that the race will widen to a moderate victory for McCain are growing.

From the Los Angeles Times:

After the Republican reception for Sarah Palin this last week, it seemed reasonable to wonder how John McCain was ever going to campaign on his own again.

The campaign’s effort to present the Republican ticket as a team of mavericks ready to shake up Washington has loosened up McCain on the stump and banished the staid image of the dignified elder statesman.

He is a feistier candidate with Palin at his side. With his blue shirt sleeves rolled up, he punches out his lines with gusto, railing against the “old, big-spending, do-nothing, me-first, country-second Washington crowd,” stabbing the air with his Sharpie marker and thumping the lectern with his fist.

Aides acknowledge that Palin’s presence has turned McCain into a sharper campaigner, and that is perhaps why she abandoned her plans to return to Alaska this weekend. Instead, she will accompany him for two more days than planned this week.

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The Obama campaign last week started pulling campaign staffers out of Georgia in order to concentrate on North Carolina and Virginia. They might as well pull out of North Carolina. Today’s Survey USA poll from the Tar Heel state is simply stunning, McCain now holds a 20 point lead in a state where his lead was once but four points in June. McCain has gained ground in every demographic group. Among men, McCain led by nine last month, 27 today. Among women, Obama led by two last month, now he trails by 12 today. McCain holds 9 of 10 Republican voters; Obama holds 3 of 4 Democratic voters; independents, who were split last month, break today crisply for McCain, where, in the blink of an eye, he is up by 25.

McCain is now in front among the educated and less educated, among the affluent and less affluent. He’s polling at 64% in Coastal Carolina (up from 57%), at 60% in Charlotte (up from 53%), and at 54% in Raleigh / Greensboro (up from 44%). Pro-Life voters backed McCain 2:1 last month, 4:1 this month.

National Polls
The national polls today are not much different from yesterday’s. The USA Today/Gallup poll still has McCain up by five points 49% to 44%. The Rasmussen Reports poll has McCain and Obama tied at 46% among registered voters whereas yesterday McCain led by one point. Below the fold is some analysis from the Gallup poll. (more…)

The liberal Pacifica Radio Network interviews former Alaska Senator Mike Gravel asking his views on Governor Palin. Apart from ideological differences, Senator Gravel praises Governor Palin for her anti-corruption focus in Alaska. The interview runs nine minutes.

“She has had the courage and the integrity to put people before party.” — Senator Mike Gravel on Governor Palin

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They are literally begging for money. I see them all the time here in San Francisco, youngsters out canvassing for cash for Obama. If I see one today, I think I’ll ask them how is it going. A few weeks ago, there was an Obama campaign volunteer selling t-shirts and buttons outside the MUNI stop here in the Castro. Of him, I did ask how it was going. He had sold two shirts ($20 apiece) and many buttons ($1 each). Total take was under $100.

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Before I cover the Canadian polls and Canada’s upcoming election on October 14th, here are seven things every American should know about Canada.

1– Canada has ten provinces. Prince Edward Island, New Brunswick and Nova Scotia are called the Maritimes. Add Newfoundland to that mix and you get Atlantic Canada. Newfoundland was an independent country until it joined Canada in 1949. Newfoundland is also the poorest region of Canada. Ontario is Canada’s most populous province and French-speaking Quebec its largest. The Prairies refer to Manitoba and Saskatchewan. Add Alberta and British Columbia to the Prairies and you get Western Canada. Northern Canada is composed of three territories: the Yukon, the Northwest Territories and Nunavut which is Canada’s newest administrative district created in 1999 carved out of the Northwest Territories. Nunavut has a population of only 29,474 spread over an area the size of Western Europe.

2– Canada became independent in 1867. The official name of the country is the Dominion of Canada and the British monarch serves as the Head of State represented in Ottawa by a Governor-General. In 1867, only a part of what today is Ontario and Quebec plus New Brunswick and Nova Scotia gained independence, the rest of what today is Canada remained a British colony. You can trace the growth of Canada here.

3– Canada has a parliamentary system with four major parties and a host of smaller ones. The four main parties are the Conservative, Liberal, New Democratic Party and the Bloc Québécois. Perhaps the most unusual party in Canada is the Marijuana Party.

4– Canada has 33.4 million people or slightly less than California. 90% of Canadians live within 100 miles of the US border. About half of all Canadians live in Ontario and Quebec.

5– The United States last seriously considered annexing Canada in 1911 during the Taft Administration. Canadians were not amused by this.

6– The relationship between the United States and Canada is the closest and most extensive in the world. It is reflected in the staggering volume of bilateral trade–the equivalent of $1.5 billion a day in goods–as well as in people-to-people contact. About 300,000 people cross the shared border every day. Since the implementation of NAFTA in 1994, total two-way merchandise trade between the U.S. and Canada has grown by 265%.

7– Stephen Harper is the Prime Minister and he is the leader of the Conservative Party. Stephane Dion leds the Liberal opposition. Canada has had one female Prime Minister, Kim Campbell, a Conservative, who finished off Brian Mulroney’s tenure in 1993.

Polls in Canada Point to A Conservative Majority

It appears that Prime Minister Harper’s gamble to call early elections may pay off for his Conservative-led minority government. Early polls indicate that the Conservatives look poised to gain more seats and are now within striking distance of gaining enough seats to form the first Conservative majority government since Kim Campbell’s brief tenure ended in 1993. A report from Reuters:

Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper’s gamble to call an early election already looks to be paying off as his ruling Conservatives stride into a large lead, helped in part by the problems troubling his main rival.

The Conservatives, who only have a minority government, were virtually tied with the opposition Liberals in opinion polls for months until September 1, when Harper made clear he was likely to call an election — now scheduled for October 14.

But a string of new polls has put him within striking distance of the first Conservative majority government for 20 years.

“Something’s happened, something’s shifting,” said Antonia Maioni, who heads the Institute for the Study of Canada at McGill University in Montreal.

The campaign only started on Sunday, but some experts say they do not see how Harper can fail to be reelected with at least another minority, barring a major disasters.

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No surprises in the Sooner state, it’s McCain by a big margin. It’s a 2 to 1 advantage for McCain in the latest Survey USA poll. McCain even does well among the under 34 age group drawing even with Obama in this conservative red state. McCain leads 66% to 31% among women voters and 64% to 33% among men. Overall, McCain enjoys a 65% to 32% advantage in Oklahoma.

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