Having chosen to forego public financing for all the wrong reasons, reports of out the Obama campaign are that they extremely disappointed and increasingly nervous over their fundraising levels. An unidentified finance staff member sent a sharply worded note last week to Illinois members of the Obama national finance committee, calling their recent efforts “extremely anemic.” I am guessing spending $6 million on an elaborate Greek temple wasn’t such a bright idea after all. The report from the New York Times:
After months of record-breaking fund-raising, a new sense of urgency in Senator Barack Obama’s fund-raising team is palpable as the full weight of the campaign’s decision to bypass public financing for the general election is suddenly upon it.
Pushing a fund-raiser later this month, a finance staff member sent a sharply worded note last week to Illinois members of its national finance committee, calling their recent efforts “extremely anemic.”
At a convention-week meeting in Denver of the campaign’s top fund-raisers, buttons with the image of a money tree were distributed to those who had already contributed the maximum $2,300 to the general election, a subtle reminder to those who had failed to ante up.
The signs of concern have become evident in recent weeks as early fund-raising totals have suggested that Mr. Obama’s decision to bypass public financing may not necessarily afford him the commanding financing advantage over Senator John McCain that many had originally predicted.
Here’s what Steve Breitenbach, a Clinton supporter from Libertyville, Illinois has to say about why he’s opting for McCain/Palin instead of Obama/Biden. This letter was first posted in the Chicago Tribune;
As someone who cast a vote for Hillary Clinton in this year’s Illinois primary, I have something to say about McCain’s choice of Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin to be his vice-presidential running mate.
Obama has been too quick, and too defensive in tone, to try and paint Gov. Palin as low on experience — even while claiming that McCain now has no business questioning the credentials and experience of Obama.
With independent voters, Obama has two large risks in trying to push this point.
First, on the experience issue, Gov. Palin seems to have Sen. Obama beat. While she is young, three years junior of even Obama, she already has more years of public service than Obama. Further, she actually has executive experience - something Obama and Biden both lack. She also has accomplishments in the areas of ethics, energy and tax policy reform, and even running a private business. She governs the largest land-mass of any U.S. State, and more public land than any other state, and has experience commanding the Armed Forces of Alaska and dealing with foreign borders with Russia and Canada - again both Obama and Biden lack experience in all these areas. Last year alone she implemented a $40 billion natural gas project to bring needed alternative energy sources to the United States. Something that Obama and Biden could only dream of.
A new Survey USA poll in Washington state shows Obama holding a four point lead narrowing slightly from the last previous SUSA poll from a month ago when Obama led by six. Again some of the more interesting data points are what’s underneath.
Among voters with no college education, there is continuing movement to McCain. Obama led by 15 points in July, now trails by 8, a 23-point erosion. Among voters who earn less than $50K a year, there is continuing movement to McCain. Obama’s once 26-point lead among the lower-income group is now 5 points, a 21-point erosion. Among voters older than McCain, Obama had led by 24 points in July, now trails by 1, a 25-point erosion. McCain always has run well among Conservatives, but his advantage among Conservatives has grown from 4:1 in May to 11:1 today. In Eastern Washington state, Obama led 5:4 in June, but McCain leads 2:1 today.
Some of these movements are simply brutal for Obama. First, McCain is solidfying his base where he now holds an 11:1 lead among self-described conservatives. The Palin pick clearly helped in this regard. And it has likely helped among the working class socio-economic demographic. Over the past two months, McCain has gained 23 points among those with a high school education turning a 15 point defecit into an eight point lead. The full results from the SUSA poll are beneath the fold. (more…)
Before I tackle the results from the Washington Post/ABC News poll, let me say a word about polls overall because they are so many of them and they each have slightly different approaches. The polls out today and yesterday have some rather wide results. The USA Today/Gallup poll out last night shows McCain up 10 points among likely voters and four points up among registered voters. The Rasmussen Reports poll has McCain up one and this Washington Post/ABC News poll has McCain up two.
The Gallup Poll is a random poll. While it does point to a shift in the race, I would not in the least believe that McCain is up by 10 just as I didn’t think Obama was up by eight last week. It’s rare to have such a move (18 points) absent any major news or development (i.e. a scandal). The Palin pick is gaining traction however and McCain is clearly enjoying the moment. No doubt and what I like about the Gallup Poll is that it shows the timing and direction of a move or shift but to think that McCain is up by 10 is I think far-fetched. The Rasmussen Poll is a weighted poll. McCain is up by one in that one. By weighted it means that it takes the likely demographic breakout and polls accordingingly. Gallup doesn’t. It just picks people at random to poll. It does have a large sample size but it isn’t as accurate as the Rasmussen Report poll or the Washington Post/ABC News poll. I’m not covering a CBS poll but briefly that one also has McCain up by two points. (more…)
A Survey USA poll in Virginia show dramatic movement underneath the overall numbers however the race remains close with a slight lead for Senator McCain though it is within the margin of error. Significantly this SUSA poll shows each side consolidating their base in Virginia. McCain gained among pro-life voters while Obama gained among pro-choice voters. Younger voters are tilting towards Obama and older ones toward McCain. The race in Virginia may come down to turnout and who does better job getting their voters out to the polls.
In an election for President of the United States in Virginia today, 09/08/08, 8 weeks till votes are counted, John McCain and Barack Obama remain effectively tied, in research conducted for WDBJ-TV in Roanoke, WJLA-TV in Washington DC, WTVR-TV in Richmond and WJHL-TV in the Tri-Cities. Today, it’s McCain 49%, Obama 47%, within the survey’s 3.7 percentage point margin of sampling error and effectively unchanged from an identical SurveyUSA poll 4 weeks ago, conducted before both political conventions, which showed McCain 48%, Obama 47%.
Today’s data reveals new polarization among young and old, and among Pro-Life and Pro-Choice voters, but the rest of the data is striking for its lack of movement. Among voters younger than Barack Obama, Obama had led by 2 points, now by 9. Among voters older than John McCain, McCain had led by 9, now by 26. Among Pro-Life voters, McCain had led by 37, now leads by 49, a 12-point gain. Among Pro-Choice voters, Obama had led by 26, now leads by 35, a 9-point gain.
There is zero indication in this data that the selection of Sarah Palin has altered how women view the race. McCain got 44% of the female vote a month ago, before picking Palin, today gets 43% of the female vote.
There is no movement in the Shenandoah and in Central VA. There is offsetting movement: to McCain in military-rich Southeast VA, to Obama in the DC suburbs.
Virginia has 13 electoral votes. In 2004, Bush carried Virginia by an 8.2% margin.
Well, that didn’t take long. The Obama campaign responded quickly today to the McCain campaign’s “Maverick” ad with a negative “No Maverick” one. The ad is a 30 second spot and a hard-hitting negative one.
Analysis: This mocking response ad from Barack Obama tries to tie the Republican ticket to old, conventional politics — but also has the effect of bringing Obama down a notch, into a debate with McCain’s running mate.
McCain’s top campaign leadership is packed with former lobbyists, but that is not unusual in presidential races — Obama’s deputy campaign manager is a former lobbyist, and more than three dozen lobbyists have worked for his fundraising team — while McCain took on big lobbies with his successful push for campaign-finance revision. More damaging is the ad’s citation of McCain’s overwhelming legislative support for President Bush, raising questions as to just how independent he is from the incumbent president he is vying to succeed.
The last poll in Michigan is from August 22nd. It showed Obama up by seven. He now leads by one. Effectively the race is a dead heat since that one point lead is inside the margin of error. Michigan is a must win for either candidate but probably more critical for Obama. The state went both for Al Gore in 2000 and John Kerry in 2004. Senator Obama leads with women, blacks, and voters under 45 while McCain has the edge with men, whites, and older voters. The candidates are tied with independent voters. This is the group upon which Michigan’s 17 electoral votes will hinge.
Michigan also has a Senate race this cycle. Incumbent Democratic US Senator Carl Levin leads his Republican challenger Jack Hoogendyk by 15 points, 51% to 36%.
On the heels of a successful Republican convention Barack Obama’s lead in Michigan is down to just a single point. He has a 47-46 advantage over John McCain.
The selection of Sarah Palin as the Republican Vice Presidential candidate appears to be a hit with Michigan voters. 45% of respondents say they are more likely to vote for McCain because of his running mate selection, while just 30% say Joe Biden joining the Democratic ticket makes them more likely to vote for Barack Obama.
“There’s no doubt that the Palin choice shook up the race a good deal,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “The big question now is whether this tightening we’re seeing in Michigan is just part of a convention bounce, or a sign that the state is going to be extremely competitive right through November. If it is, that spells trouble for Barack Obama.”
The McCain campaign released this new ad today. It is a 30 second spot and it highlights an emerging them for the McCain campaign — they’re the original mavericks and stand for change. The ad is running in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Missouri and Ohio and it is likely to be used in other battleground states.
Executive Summary: Time to update the favorability ratio. This is the third weekly installment. The movement this week came yesterday and today. And the move was a strong shift in Senator McCain’s direction. His favorables hit 60% and his unfavorable fell under 40% to 38%. The former is a new high and the latter is a new low. For McCain, it’s the best of both worlds.
The Lemos Favorability Ratio
One of the tools that we use on Wall Street to measure movement is by expressing data as a ratio and then tracking the movement of the basis points. A basis point is a unit that is equal to 1/100th of 1%, and is used to denote the change in any financial instrument. The basis point is commonly used for calculating changes in interest rates, equity indexes and the yield of a fixed-income security. The relationship between percentage changes and basis points can be summarized as follows: 1% change = 100 basis points, and 0.01% = 1 basis point. Tracking any movement is possible and movements can be very clearly delineated. Two weeks ago, I decided to track both Senator Obama’s Favorable versus Unfavorable ratings as well as Senator McCain’s Favorable versus Unfavorable ratings. I take the the favorable rating and divide by the unfavorable rating to get a ratio which I have named the Lemos Favorability Ratio.
I am using Rasmussen Reports Daily Tracking Poll as my raw data. Rasmussen Reports is putting out a daily tracking poll with the national favorability versus unfavorability percentages. Their data extends back to June 4, 2008 and I have created a weekly Excel spreadsheet tracking the data. Here’s that data broken out by candidate and then a side-by-side comparison of the Lemos Favorability ratio is below the fold along with data from a recent poll in Colorado.
McCain Favourable versus Unfavourable Ratings Nationwide
Date
Favorable Rating
Unfavorable Rating
Lemos Favorability Ratio
Basis Point Change
June 04
53%
44%
1.20
——
June 11
55%
44%
1.25
+05 bp
June 18
55%
43%
1.28
+03 bp
June 25
55%
43%
1.28
No Change
July 02
56%
42%
1.33
+05 bp
July 09
54%
44%
1.23
-10 bp
July 16
55%
42%
1.31
+8 bp
July 23
56%
42%
1.33
+02 bp
July 30
55%
42%
1.31
-02 bp
August 05
55%
41%
1.34
+03 bp
August 12
56%
43%
1.30
-04 bp
August 19
55%
43%
1.28
-02 bp
August 26
57%
42%
1.36
+08 bp
September 01
57%
42%
1.36
No Change
September 08
60%
38%
1.58
+22 bp
Source: Rasmussen Reports & By The Fault
Takeaway
In terms of the ratio, you want a higher number. The higher the number the greater the spread between your favorable and unfavorable ratings. For McCain, this is good news. As of right now he is enjoying the highest number to date, 1.58 in the favorability ratio and a 22 basis point improvement over last week. Not only his favorable rating at its highest level so far at 60% but his unfavorable rating has dropped below 40% to 38%. McCain is enjoying the best of both worlds right now.
Obama Favourable versus Unfavourable Ratings Nationwide
Date
Favorable Rating
Unfavorable Rating
Lemos Favorability Ratio
Basis Point Change
June 04
55%
43%
1.28
——
June 11
56%
42%
1.33
+05 bp
June 18
55%
43%
1.28
-05 bp
June 25
55%
43%
1.28
No Change
July 02
56%
42%
1.33
+05 bp
July 09
55%
43%
1.28
-05 bp
July 16
55%
43%
1.28
No Change
July 23
54%
43%
1.26
-02 bp
July 30
55%
44%
1.25
-01 bp
August 05
53%
45%
1.18
-07 bp
August 12
55%
43%
1.28
+10 bp
August 19
54%
45%
1.20
-08 bp
August 26
53%
45%
1.18
-02 bp
September 01
58%
41%
1.41
+23 bp
September 08
55%
43%
1.28
-13 bp
Source: Rasmussen Reports & By The Fault
Takeaway
Again in terms of the ratio, you want a higher number. The higher the number the greater the spread between your favorable and unfavorable ratings. Two weeks ago, Obama was at his nadir, 1.18 in the favorability ratio and last week he was at his zenith at 1.41 gaining 23 basis points during the week of the Democratic Convention. Obama’s previous peak had been in late June/early July with a 1.33 favorability ratio. But this week saw Obama slide down to a 1.28 favorability ratio, shedding 13 basis points. For Obama, the shift came more from a lower favorable rating, he dropped three percentage points, while his unfavorable ratings only climbed two percentage points. The other point to make is that effectively Obama remains where he was in June when the race became a head-to-head race. Even though he has movements in his direction at several points, these have been followed by a pull back. That points to an ambivalence about his candidacy. Or put another way, he has been unable to sustain any traction. (more…)
