Senator McCain sat down with NBC’s Kelly O’Donnell for an interview tonight.

Once again the national polls appear to be tightening up. While the economic turmoil has clearly benefitted Senator Obama over the past two weeks, it was also a blunder for the McCain campaign to suspend its advertising allowing the Obama campaign complete dominance of the airwaves. Now with his ad buys back up, McCain seems to be gaining some traction in the national polls. It is important to remember that state polls lag the national polls but nonetheless most of the 14 battleground states have remained competitive through the Obama surge with the possible exception of Pennsylvania where the latest poll from late last week gave Obama an eight point margin.

Below the fold a Reuters report on the latest ABC News/Washington Post poll. (more…)

On August 23rd, Senator McCain led in Indiana (link is to US Census demograghic data) by six points. On September 19th, a Rasmussen Reports poll found that McCain’s lead was down to two points. Today’s poll from Survey USA (SUSA) has Senator McCain leading Senator Obama 48% to 45%, a three point margin, just inside the margin of error at +/- 3.8%.

If an election for President of the United States were held in Indiana today, 09/30/08, Republican John McCain edges Democrat Barack Obama 48% to 45%, according to this latest SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for WHAS-TV Louisville and WCPO-TV Cincinnati. Compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll released six weeks ago, McCain is down 2 points; Obama is up 1.

Among men, McCain leads by 9; among women, Obama leads by 2 — an 11-point gender gap. Among voters younger than Barack Obama, McCain and Obama tie. Among voters older than John McCain, McCain leads by 8. Among those who are in-between the two candidates’ ages, McCain leads by 4.

Among white voters, McCain leads by 9 points. Among blacks, Obama leads by 65. 85% of Republicans vote for McCain; 82% of Democrats vote for Obama; Independents are tied. Obama has gained ground over the past six weeks in the Indianapolis and Central Indiana areas; McCain has gained ground in Southern Indiana. In Northern Indiana, where voters see Chicago television from Obama’s home state of Illinois, Obama led by 17 points fourteen weeks ago and by 5 points six weeks ago; today, Obama leads there by 1.

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Time to update the favorability ratio. This is the sixth weekly installment. Senator Obama has taken his largest lead in the ratio yet, a +24 basis point differential as of today though yesterday he only had a +13 differential.

The Lemos Favorability Ratio
One of the tools that we use on Wall Street to measure movement is by expressing data as a ratio and then tracking the movement of the basis points. A basis point is a unit that is equal to 1/100th of 1%, and is used to denote the change in any financial instrument. The basis point is commonly used for calculating changes in interest rates, equity indexes and the yield of a fixed-income security. The relationship between percentage changes and basis points can be summarized as follows: 1% change = 100 basis points, and 0.01% = 1 basis point. Tracking any movement is possible and movements can be very clearly delineated. Six weeks ago, I decided to track both Senator Obama’s Favorable versus Unfavorable ratings as well as Senator McCain’s Favorable versus Unfavorable ratings. I take the the favorable rating and divide by the unfavorable rating to get a ratio which I have named the Lemos Favorability Ratio.

I am using Rasmussen Reports Daily Tracking Poll as my raw data. Rasmussen Reports is putting out a daily tracking poll with the national favorability versus unfavorability percentages. Their data extends back to June 4, 2008 and I have created a weekly Excel spreadsheet tracking the data. Here’s that data broken out by candidate and then a side-by-side comparison of the Lemos Favorability ratio is below the fold along with data from a recent poll in Colorado.

McCain Favourable versus Unfavourable Ratings Nationwide

Takeaway
In terms of the ratio, you want a higher number. The higher the number the greater the spread between your favorable and unfavorable ratings. McCain enjoyed his highest number to date three weeks ago, 1.58 in the favorability ratio but has seen an erosion of 40 basis point erosion over the past over this period as his favorable rating declined by seven points and his unfavorable rating rose by the same amount. However, McCain is now at his previous lows in the index at 1.18 back on August 29th, 2008.

Obama Favourable versus Unfavourable Ratings Nationwide

Takeaway
Again in terms of the ratio, you want a higher number. The higher the number the greater the spread between your favorable and unfavorable ratings. Obama gained ten basis points in the ratio with a three point rise in his favorable rating but from a one point decline in his unfavorable rating in my Monday to Monday overview (I normally published this report on Mondays but it’s a day late so there’s an extra day of data). As of today, Obama now stands at 1.41 in the index, 24 basis points higher than McCain.
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In his home state of Arizona (link is to US Census demographic data), Senator McCain has opened up a wide and commanding lead over Senator Obama according to today’s new poll from Rasmussen Reports. McCain leads Obama 59% to 38%, a 21 point margin.

John McCain, in his home state of Arizona, now has a 21-point lead over Barack Obama, the biggest gap yet in the race.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the state finds McCain leading 59% to 38%. In late July, the Arizona Republican had a 16-point lead and only led by nine a month earlier.

McCain has a dominating 59% to 40% lead among unaffiliated voters in Arizona. He also leads 63% to 36% among men and 55% to 41% among women.

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With just 35 days to go before the US Presidential election, the campaign ads are picking up in number and in intensity. This new ad from the McCain campaign focuses on comments by Senator McCain that the US economy is “fundamentally sound” which Senator Obama attacked as being “out of touch.” Now the McCain campaign is firing back calling Obama a “hypocrite” for essentially saying the same thing at another point in time (I am not sure when Obama made these comments nor am I sure of the context and it is not noted in the ad when the comments were made though it appears that Obama’s comments are recent). The ad is a 30 second spot and it is to run nationwide.

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Polls over the past week have all pointed to Senator McCain’s lead in Florida (link to US Census demographic data) evaporating from a five point lead now down to dead even in the latest poll from Rasmussen Reports. In this poll, Senator McCain and Senator Obama are now tied at 47% apiece.

The race for Florida is now a dead heat, with Barack Obama and John McCain tied with 47% each, according to a new Fox News/Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of voters in the state. Only five percent (5%) remain undecided.

In a survey released a week ago, McCain had a five-point lead. Five days ago he was ahead by just one, as Florida voters like many others around the country reacted to the country’s growing economic problems.

While McCain has had over 50% support several times since polling began in February, Obama has yet to get higher than the 48% support he collected the first week of September.

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The US Presidential race in Colorado remains rather dynamic and fluid with the lead changing back and forth. Last week’s poll had Senator Obama leading by three points (and just within the margin of error) and this week’s poll from Rasmussen Reports shows the race even tighter with a narrow one point lead for Senator Obama over Senator McCain. Obama leads 49% to 48%, again within the margin of error so effectively the race remains a dead heat.

The latest Fox News/Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in Colorado finds Barack Obama attracting 49% of the vote while John McCain earns 48%.

A week ago, a Rasmussen Reports survey found Obama with a three-point advantage. Two weeks ago, McCain had a two-point advantage in a Fox News/Rasmussen Reports poll.

The two candidates have been within three points for five consecutive polls, confirming Colorado’s status as a competitive swing state. It is also a very important state in this year’s Electoral College calculations. In many scenarios, if Obama can move this state from the Republican to the Democratic column, that will be enough to win the White House.

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Here’s a behind-the-scenes look at the voiceover portion of campaign ads. Kathryn Klvana is an established actress and voiceover artist with 20 years of professional experience. She has provided the narration to numerous documentaries for National Geographic and the Discovery Channel but is perhaps best known for her voiceovers in campaign ads.

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This ad is entitled “Same Path” and it is Internet-only. It is a two minute spot. It features Senator Obama talking about his economic policies.

This second ad is entitled “healthcare”. It is a 30 second spot. The campaign did not release where the ad would run.

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President Clinton is quoted and highlighted in a new ad from the McCain campaign today. And the hard cold reality of the matter is that Representatives Barney Frank, Maxine Waters, William Lacy Clay among many others blocked any increase regulatory oversight at Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, chided and derided the regulators and acted to protect a CEO simply because he was an African-American and a donor to Democratic campaigns.

The ad is a 60 second spot. The McCain camp noted the ad would run across the country.

The McCain campaign also changed its voice over announcer to a female from its normal male announcer. The tone in the ad is quite serious and while the ad does mention Obama in a quote from the Washington Post, the ad is more to get out the role that McCain played in trying to prevent a meltdown at Fannie and Freddie and takes a broad swipe at the Democratic Party rather than attacking Obama completely front and center.

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